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Powerwall 2 supply issues

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Latest news says Tesla is raising PowerWall 2's prices 10%+, and an upgrade to the Gateway box?

Tesla Powerwall 2 battery prices jump, as production focuses on Model 3 EV
That story is from Australia. The AUD is trending to the upper end of its 3 year range, so Tesla gets fewer USD for Powerwalls purchased in Australia than they have. The beginning of Feb 2018 to now is basically a straight line from 1.23:1 to 1.4:1.

If Tesla is changing the Gateway and doubling the price, then one would expect the US Gateway price to go from $750 to $1,500. I have not yet seen an announcement to that effect for the US market.
 
That story is from Australia. The AUD is trending to the upper end of its 3 year range, so Tesla gets fewer USD for Powerwalls purchased in Australia than they have. The beginning of Feb 2018 to now is basically a straight line from 1.23:1 to 1.4:1.

If Tesla is changing the Gateway and doubling the price, then one would expect the US Gateway price to go from $750 to $1,500. I have not yet seen an announcement to that effect for the US market.
Price and hardware changes are global now.
Electrek: Tesla increases the price of the Powerwall as demand greatly outpaces production
CleanTechnica: Breaking: Tesla Powerwall Gets New Features, Prices Raised | CleanTechnica

This speaks truth to other battery-suppliers claiming Tesla was dumping at below costs.
 
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When I was getting quotes to get 14-50 outlets put in, I got some quotes which were $1850 to $7000 for the same job. I'm sure the $7000 bid was just by an electrician that didn't want the work but would've taken it if I would've been willing to pay $$$$. Tesla may be using the same strategy to temporarily reduce demand.
 
I think it speaks to Elon wanting to release a compelling product, but the demand showing that they did not have to be so aggressive on the price. It's better to take more profits so they can ramp production faster.

Akin to Model 3 production, I believe it is also related to the profitability needs of 4th Quarter and beyond. Perhaps pricing will adjust downward once batter manufacturing capacity increases and competition get better.

A silver lining, at least it looks like a new variant(s) for the Powerwall is coming. Per Clean Technica:
Tesla is finalizing its Powerwall solution for 3 phase homes, specifically for the APAC region, with a planned timing of late 2018–2019 to bring the 3 phase unit to market. This will help to minimize the amount of regional customizations and non-value-add work that is required to install Powerwalls in the APAC region.

Backup power will become a deliverable for European markets, where time-based control is much more of a core feature and the much higher reliability of grids makes backup power capability more of an afterthought. Just the same, Tesla will be working to add backup capability to Powerwalls for European customers in 2019.

To further improve the reliability of Powerwall, Tesla will be rolling out improved connectivity hardware as well. This increase in the reliability of the system ties directly in with a more robust mobile app for Powerwall. The company has actually rolled out new features over the last few months, and that trend will continue as Tesla works to provide full control and management of the home energy system through the app.
 
I think it speaks to Elon wanting to release a compelling product, but the demand showing that they did not have to be so aggressive on the price. It's better to take more profits so they can ramp production faster.
I don't see how that's really different from how I said it.

Tesla grabbed the market on thin-to-no margins, and are now backing off as they have no supply.
 
When I was getting quotes to get 14-50 outlets put in, I got some quotes which were $1850 to $7000 for the same job. I'm sure the $7000 bid was just by an electrician that didn't want the work but would've taken it if I would've been willing to pay $$$$. Tesla may be using the same strategy to temporarily reduce demand.
At $6700, Powerwall is still better and cheaper than any competitor. LG sells a 9kwh battery for 7k, without the inverter.
 
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It’s great to see that Powerwalls may be available again. It has been 9 months since I signed a contract with Solare Energy in San Diego, and still no Powerwalls. I recently was informed by the contractor that their best estimate for an installation is Q2 2019. If anyone has had a Solare Energy Powerwall installation recently please PM me to let me know how much time elapsed between the contract signing and installation date.
 
I made an online reservation in early October. I called them last week since I didn't hear anything. They told me that they thought I could get an installation in Jan or Feb 2019.
That would be great but I'm not optimistic that they will make this timeline.
 
Me neither. I have had a deposit on a Powerwall for a year. I am seriously considering canceling and installing an Outback Skybox with some Nissan Leaf batteries I have from another project.
I've thought about building one myself but it would be difficult to get all of the services that the Powerwall provides:
- battery storage: this is the easiest except if you want to control battery charging when the grid is down
- battery charging from solar: tricky
- 5 kW inverter: easy unless you want it to trick the solar inverters into operating and control the solar output and battery charging
- grid isolation: big relay... and control

There is a lot involved in getting all of these pieces to work together that the Powerwall provides.
I already have a small battery bank and inverter for emergency power but there is a lot more to getting solar charging, grid isolation, load management, etc.
Even with the price increase, the Tesla Powerwall is a good value.
 
I've thought about building one myself but it would be difficult to get all of the services that the Powerwall provides:
- battery storage: this is the easiest except if you want to control battery charging when the grid is down
- battery charging from solar: tricky
- 5 kW inverter: easy unless you want it to trick the solar inverters into operating and control the solar output and battery charging
- grid isolation: big relay... and control

There is a lot involved in getting all of these pieces to work together that the Powerwall provides.
I already have a small battery bank and inverter for emergency power but there is a lot more to getting solar charging, grid isolation, load management, etc.
Even with the price increase, the Tesla Powerwall is a good value.
If you go with a non-Tesla system, you don't necessarily have to have a transfer switch. If you install enough inverter and battery, you can run sub-panels directly off the battery inverters full time and run charge controllers directly into the batteries. Charging batteries from solar is not that tricky, you just need the right equipment. It is possible to use the grid only for battery charging and never feed back into the grid. However, payback calculations are more complicated because you don't get any NEM credits for surplus generation and if you over-produce, you have to just curtail it and give it up. If you get battery interconnection permission, you can export surplus solar to the grid also instead of curtailing it. These setups are more complicated because they're more flexible than Powerwalls. Also, unless you use salvage batteries like Leaf / Volt / Fiat 500e batteries, you will spend a lot more than an equivalent Powerwall system.
 
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If you go with a non-Tesla system, you don't necessarily have to have a transfer switch. If you install enough inverter and battery, you can run sub-panels directly off the battery inverters full time and run charge controllers directly into the batteries. Charging batteries from solar is not that tricky, you just need the right equipment. It is possible to use the grid only for battery charging and never feed back into the grid. However, payback calculations are more complicated because you don't get any NEM credits for surplus generation and if you over-produce, you have to just curtail it and give it up. If you get battery interconnection permission, you can export surplus solar to the grid also instead of curtailing it. These setups are more complicated because they're more flexible than Powerwalls. Also, unless you use salvage batteries like Leaf / Volt / Fiat 500e batteries, you will spend a lot more than an equivalent Powerwall system.
I guess I could keep my existing grid tied (net metered) solar panels but then disconnect my loads from the grid and run them from a big inverter (probably need 10 kW) attached to batteries. Solar and grid could charge the batteries. I'd still have the problem of charging the batteries from solar during a power failure but that can probably be solved. Interesting problem.
I'll think about while I'm waiting for the Powerwalls...
 
Also, unless you use salvage batteries like Leaf / Volt / Fiat 500e batteries, you will spend a lot more than an equivalent Powerwall system.
Yes that is correct. The price of a Skybox ($7,000) and an LG Chem battery is more than the jacked up prices Powerall installers like Swell Energy are charging. Then there is the SGIP in California that makes the Powerwall even cheaper.
In my case I already have some Nissan Leaf batteries from another project and see some advantages not being constrained by SGIP rules. I am still on the fence and haven't cancelled my Powerwall order.
 
I guess I could keep my existing grid tied (net metered) solar panels but then disconnect my loads from the grid and run them from a big inverter (probably need 10 kW) attached to batteries. Solar and grid could charge the batteries. I'd still have the problem of charging the batteries from solar during a power failure but that can probably be solved.
Yes you can and that is what I am contemplating. I would keep my existing grid tie system. Initially i would install a Skybox standalone with the existing Leaf batteries. Outback promises to ha AC coupling in the near future and with that i would rewire my existing inverter to run off the critical loads panel. During a power outage the Skybox would power the critical loads panel and fire up the grid tie inverter. The Skybox would use frequency shift to modulate the output of the grid tie inverter. At least that is the theory and if I couldn't rationalize this as a hobby I would probably stick with a Powerwall if I thought it would be delivered in the near future.
 
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Yes you can and that is what I am contemplating. I would keep my existing grid tie system. Initially i would install a Skybox standalone with the existing Leaf batteries. Outback promises to ha AC coupling in the near future and with that i would rewire my existing inverter to run off the critical loads panel. During a power outage the Skybox would power the critical loads panel and fire up the grid tie inverter. The Skybox would use frequency shift to modulate the output of the grid tie inverter. At least that is the theory and if I couldn't rationalize this as a hobby I would probably stick with a Powerwall if I thought it would be delivered in the near future.
The Skybox looks good but I'm not sure it would work for me in its current configuration. I have a mix of Enphase microinverters and an SMA string inverter. I would need the Skybox to be able to control these. This may be what you are referring to when you say "use frequency shift to modulate the output of the grid tie inverter" which seems to be a future feature of the Skybox. I think that the Powerwall does this now.

It would also be nice if these units could control loads using "smart breakers" which have been introduced by Square D, Siemens, Eaton, Schneider, etc.
 
Yes you can and that is what I am contemplating. I would keep my existing grid tie system. Initially i would install a Skybox standalone with the existing Leaf batteries. Outback promises to ha AC coupling in the near future and with that i would rewire my existing inverter to run off the critical loads panel. During a power outage the Skybox would power the critical loads panel and fire up the grid tie inverter. The Skybox would use frequency shift to modulate the output of the grid tie inverter. At least that is the theory and if I couldn't rationalize this as a hobby I would probably stick with a Powerwall if I thought it would be delivered in the near future.
What features do you like about the Skybox that aren't provided by another unit like a Radian? I thought the main difference was integrated high voltage charge controller and integrated wiring and breakers. If you are planning to use AC coupling, the charge controllers would be "wasted".