Unicorn Dust Powerwall 3.0 [Speculation]

[niveknow]

Another article today referencing the shortage across the nation for their current 2.0 Powerwalls. The correlation this time is cited as Tesla holding back existing inventory to the current solar installs which we can assume are for contracts that are in flight.

I'm wondering if it makes sense to push back install for a couple months this year to take advantage of the current tax credit. ... I hate the feeling of buying something months from vendor announcing the next shiny thing.

What if PW3.0 is powered by cobalt-free unicorn dust with double the capability and drops 50% in cost. Yes yes I know. .the whole "can't wait for the next tech .... " argument but man.. so close !!! lol

 

[wjgjr]

There is always going to be a next big thing, and I don't think anybody here can say for certain how much of an improvement the next PW will be. No doubt there will be improvements, but until Tesla says more, it is hard to assess the value of waiting versus what is lost - the months of generation and the protection against outages.

What I would say is it seems unlikely PW3 installs - particularly if there are major changes - will occur on a large scale in 2020, even if the current shortage could be related to Tesla planning for the new version. But, it is very possible that installing in 2021 would still be worth the wait. However, it is possible then that there will be another big thing seemingly on the horizon.

 

[JeremyWhaling]

B A T T E R Y D A Y I S C O M I N G

^ said on nearly all Tesla fb groups and forums (although not here in the TMC energy forum much) as some sort of miracle perfect battery is guaranteed to be coming *now*. Like, ok it might be, but there's some value in the bird in the hand. It also may only be slightly better or just easier/faster to manufacture.

 

[redchief]

Another article today referencing the shortage across the nation for their current 2.0 Powerwalls. The correlation this time is cited as Tesla holding back existing inventory to the current solar installs which we can assume are for contracts that are in flight.

I'm wondering if it makes sense to push back install for a couple months this year to take advantage of the current tax credit. ... I hate the feeling of buying something months from vendor announcing the next shiny thing.

What if PW3.0 is powered by cobalt-free unicorn dust with double the capability and drops 50% in cost. Yes yes I know. .the whole "can't wait for the next tech .... " argument but man.. so close !!! lol

Is there a HazMAt sheet for unicorn dust?

 

[BrettS]

My system was installed in late June and I definitely had a little concern about the potential imminent release of new powerwalls, but I’ll admit, the longer we go without an announcement the happier I am for not waiting

 

[mkspeedr]

I have been waiting a year for PGE to do their part so I can get mine 3 power walls installed. I would be happy with version 2 or 3.

 

[redchief]

My system was installed in late June and I definitely had a little concern about the potential imminent release of new powerwalls, but I’ll admit, the longer we go without an announcement the happier I am for not waiting

I'm getting Panels installed next week for a net meter system, Still under consideration is PowerWall / battery system.
A neighbor has battery system that sells back to the grid during peak hours, She nets ~$130. / month.... so far

 

[jjrandorin]

I'm getting Panels installed next week for a net meter system, Still under consideration is PowerWall / battery system.
A neighbor has battery system that sells back to the grid during peak hours, She nets ~$130. / month.... so far

If "goleta" is goleta california, your neighbor is either selling solar back to the grid (not powerwall energy) or, has no solar at all.

 

[Tempus]

based on my location (VA), and the fact that there aren't a lot of power outages near me, PW just didn't make sense when I was thinking about Solar. So i just went with a straight panel install (scheduled 2 weeks from now!). A lot of that was because of the cost of the PW compared to the value. So for me it made sense to wait. If Tesla comes out with a compelling new PW3 after battery day, I can redo the analysis. I would LOVE to be able to be more self sufficient, just not at today's cost.

 

[jboy210]

based on my location (VA), and the fact that there aren't a lot of power outages near me, PW just didn't make sense when I was thinking about Solar. So i just went with a straight panel install (scheduled 2 weeks from now!). A lot of that was because of the cost of the PW compared to the value. So for me it made sense to wait. If Tesla comes out with a compelling new PW3 after battery day, I can redo the analysis. I would LOVE to be able to be more self sufficient, just not at today's cost.

When I lived in Williamsburg, VA in the 80s we had power outage every summer afternoon there was a thunderstorm. So most summer afternoons. Which was interesting because my wife worked for Vepco.

 

[gigawatt1010]

Agree, this is always the dillema in buying tech stuff. That happened to me with my Solar glass install. It's still not installed, but from my order in May, Gateway 2 was released. I was so happy to hear from a Solar Advisor that they updated my Gateway to the 2.

So with all the excitement for PW3, for my case, I just want my solar glass and 3 PW2's done and operating this year. Hopefully when the time comes and I have to add a 4th PW, it will be the 3 by then - with the unicorn dust of course.

 

[holeydonut]

There's always new tech coming around the corner. I"m resigned to a homeowner in 5 years getting 500watt panels with fancier time-of-use-load-balancing tech for about 75% of what I'm paying today. But by then the federal tax credit will be only 10% so it kind of balances out.

I also expect unicorn dust to be standard equipment on the Cybertruck 2.

 

[Keoni8888]

I placed an order for an additional PW2 on June 20th. Just called in today and was told that the backlog for the design team is 6-8 weeks before they are even able to draw up the plans, and this is for an easy install. Was also told that orders placed now will be installed in either late Q4 or Q1 2021. So if you are augmenting solar and want the 26% tax credit, order soon as I am guessing it will be lower next year.

 

[sorka]

There is always going to be a next big thing, and I don't think anybody here can say for certain how much of an improvement the next PW will be.

But there isn't always going to be the next big thing imminently. It cracks me up every time someone makes this argument. With research and timing there are sweet spots to hit between upgrade cycles.

 

[sorka]

I placed an order for an additional PW2 on June 20th. Just called in today and was told that the backlog for the design team is 6-8 weeks before they are even able to draw up the plans, and this is for an easy install. Was also told that orders placed now will be installed in either late Q4 or Q1 2021. So if you are augmenting solar and want the 26% tax credit, order soon as I am guessing it will be lower next year.

When I placed my order a month ago, it was just for solar because I'd read that powerwalls were hard to come by. I mentioned this when I called to talk to a solar rep at Tesla about altering the roof layout, which they did, and he said there's no delay in installation if I added power walls and that they were available immediately, so I added two powerwalls....that was month ago and nothing has happened since. If I can't get it done by the end of the year, I'm cancelling the entire thing. I have two other solar installers coming out next week to give me quotes for for solar only.

 

[wjgjr]

But there isn't always going to be the next big thing imminently. It cracks me up every time someone makes this argument. With research and timing there are sweet spots to hit between upgrade cycles.

The way I see it, in the PV/PW area, for the foreseeable future, there is going to be a next big thing coming (though I certainly would not use the word immediately,) particularly compared to the expected lifetime of these products. I don't think this is incompatible with your statement that there are sweet spots to be found, though the unknowns about what is coming in the next PW, let alone over the lifetime of these products make putting exact numbers on it a challenge. That is also why I said to OP that it is very possible it would be worth the wait.

The reason for my statement is that I think it is common to want to have the next big thing, whatever that may be, and sometimes that causes people to continually put off purchases just to get that extra bit of unicorn dust, even where the current offering might make good financial sense. So, if waiting for PW3 seems like the prudent decision, do it, recognizing that some of the battery hype will not be in PW3, and we will be closer then to whatever improvements might be coming on the PV side as well as to the PW4, which will start being discussed as soon as PW3 is unveiled.

 

[willow_hiller]

New tweet from Elon addressing the shortage: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1294345899280175104?s=19

Tesla team is working hard on increasing Powerwall production

 

[jboy210]

I am waiting for the PW4. They should be shipping in 10 years when I need to replace my PW2s. Or maybe V2G will be available and PWs will be obsolete

 

[JeremyWhaling]

Just spitballing here, but the PW2 seems to be a pretty decent product, is clearly the lowest cost home battery on the market, and offers features others do not. It's also selling like hotcakes. So what would the PW3 even be? A modest bump to capacity for the same price? Maybe a "double stuffed" version which is basically two units in one (so you could have whole house backup with just one unit).

Financially for Tesla, it seems like just continuing to ship what they have would work pretty well for another year (or two? or three?). They just need to crank out more (which Elon says they are now doing).

 

[RabidYak]

I agree - the PW2 is a nice product.

Another way it could get even better would be to increase it's useful lifespan.

Currently the warranty sits at 10 years.

$7500 / 10 years / 365 days / 13.5 khw / 0.9 efficiency = ~$0.17 per kwh time shifted.

If the 10 years doubles to 20 years, that price drops to $0.085 - which would be pretty terrific and would send a clear message that batteries are here to stay. Even a bump to 15 years would be pretty impactful.

And, to add, these cycle life improvements are within the range of the recent electrolyte improvements of the Dahn lab.