After picking up my Model Y at Mt. Kisco in May of 2021, I stayed the night at my sister's house in Manchester, Ct before driving back to Rochester, NY. Overnight I charged the car to 100%. As soon as I entered my destination at the start of the trip back, the car immediately started 'preconditioning the battery for faster Supercharging' even though the Supercharging station was over 200 miles away and I had 322 miles of range indicating. The temperature was moderate (57 Deg - see attached photo) and the energy consumption skyrocketed to the point that it was obvious that I would never make it to the Supercharger. I'm with the group that thinks this is a bug. Since then, I've just entered a destination near the supercharger to prevent preconditioning - it never seems to limit the Supercharging rate. I just recently learned about tapping the message on the screen to turn off preconditioning. I'll have to test that out.
How was the weather otherwise? 57 degrees is definitely on the cool side for the battery. I have an insulated garage, so 55 degrees is a normal temperature in my garage in the fall/spring, and I know at that temperature, my car will have limited regen going down our hill.... Also... I go on the same roadtrip every few weeks for work... I don't think there was any way you were going to make that supercharger 200 miles away in 57 degree weather, even if you weren't preconditioning, especially if you are driving faster than 55 mph. I think it was just a coincidence that it started preconditioning early and then you didn't have enough juice to make it to your supercharger. In my experience, my car will tell my it is preconditioning the batteries, than when the battery gets to optimum temperature, it stops... And then will cycle back on later if the battery cools significantly.. I've never had it impact my range to the point that I can't get to the intended supercharger.
I think what compounded your situation, is that if you just picked up your car, it had no consumption data to offer a realistic range estimate when you entered in a navigation destination, so all it had to go by was EPA estimated data, which makes a lot of assumptions about your driving and current conditions. Even in warm weather, I don't enter in a SC destination that is over 200 miles away. I don't think I would ever make it there, at least not at the speeds I drive at.
In my experience, the estimated SoC on the navigation screen has always been spot on since I can remember looking at it. (I didn't really pay attention to what it said the first month or two as I was learning the car). I've also learned to add about a 10% buffer due to weather conditions, if it is raining/windy/etc.. Regardless if my car is preconditioning or not, the estimated SoC has typically been pretty spot on, with the exception of weather relating things, but even then it was only off by < 10% or so.
Also, your 322 miles of indicated range... I assume you were looking at the battery icon on the top of the display? If so, that indicated range is way off if you have it showing miles left. You really should have it display %, and you should be looking at estimated SoC on arrival on your navigation screen... Otherwise your car really has no idea where you are driving to, so it can't take into account important factors, like elevation change, estimated speed/consumption, etc.