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Predict when your Model 3 will be Delivered

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by voltage, Mar 24, 2016.

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When do you predict your Model 3 will be Delivered?

  1. Late 2017

    5 vote(s)
    4.4%
  2. 2018 - First Half

    48 vote(s)
    42.1%
  3. 2018 - Second Half

    45 vote(s)
    39.5%
  4. 2019 - First Half

    10 vote(s)
    8.8%
  5. 2019 - Second Half

    4 vote(s)
    3.5%
  6. 2020 or Later

    2 vote(s)
    1.8%
  1. voltage

    voltage Member

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2016
    Messages:
    14
    Location:
    Raleigh, NC
    Thought it would be fun for anyone reserving a Model 3 on the 31st to predict when their car will be delivered. I'm on the East Coast and plan to stick to a ~$50K budget. I don't expect to take delivery at least until the second half of 2018.
     
  2. TslaIsFuture

    TslaIsFuture 2 Model 3 reservations 3/31/2016

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2015
    Messages:
    57
    Location:
    Hampton, NH
    East coast. $55-60k budget. Optimistic for first half of 2018. Will pick up at factory if there is no CA sales tax imposed and pushes timeline up a few months.
     
  3. ELRev

    ELRev Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2016
    Messages:
    145
    Location:
    Los Angeles, CA
    West Coast non-owner with ~60k limit. Expecting first half of 2018. My biggest fear is that people will continue coming out of the woodwork for the next 2 years ordering PXXDs, pushing me further and further down the list. I live in LA and plan to camp out next week, so I'll be close to the top of the "general public/consumer" priority list, but I have no idea how many employees/current owners/wealthy individuals will leapfrog me over the next 2 years. Hopefully few enough that I have my car 2 years from now.
     
  4. SureValla

    SureValla Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2016
    Messages:
    327
    Location:
    Shelton, CT
    Ditto, maybe slightly less budget but same expected time frame. I plan to arrive to wait in line early on the 31st and will be configuring within hours of invitation to design studio.
     
  5. graphix25

    graphix25 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2016
    Messages:
    71
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    #5 graphix25, Mar 24, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2016
    $55-60k budget and optimistic for first half 2018. My BMW3 lease ends in August 2018 so June/July would be wonderful.

    If the p8xd starts at $60k (25k+base) then I don't know what I'm going to do. Go naked pXXd or check all the boxes from the base. Decisions, decisions.. A naked pXXd will likely ship before a loaded base model minus the P.
     
  6. Menifeer

    Menifeer Member

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2016
    Messages:
    51
    Location:
    Menifee, CA
    I don't anticipate delivery until 2019. Production will slowly ramp up after the initial production which I expect to begin in early 2018 (regardless of the official predictions). I'm reserving on-line, so a lot of people will be in the queue ahead of me.
     
  7. Litzy

    Litzy Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2016
    Messages:
    20
    Location:
    Rochester, NY
    Assuming they start shipping in late 2017, I'm expecting 2nd half 2018. I'm not an employee, nor a current owner, and I live on the East coast. I also don't plan on maxing out options (probably not a P unless it's possible under 55k). Also I have to reserve online instead of in store (none are close). All that combined I think pushes me to 2nd half, but I'd love it if it was in first half. I'm also not really counting on Federal rebate now either because of all that.
     
  8. Bimbels

    Bimbels GoldMember

    Joined:
    Jan 18, 2016
    Messages:
    536
    Location:
    Newport, RI
    Current owner, east coast. Won't speculate on budget because I have to see what/how much the options are - but unless my husband surprises me, we will not be getting the P option. As long as the smaller battery option is the same range as our 70D, we'll be getting the smaller battery since that range meets our needs . Because of that, if I get it the second half of 2018 I will be happy. Mid 2018 would be great.
     
  9. Johann Koeber

    Johann Koeber Member

    Joined:
    May 1, 2012
    Messages:
    663
    Location:
    Nuremburg, Germany
    As a tesla owner, I expect priority in my geographic region (europe). The Model 3 is perfect for europe, more so than the models S and X so I am hoping for release in Europe before the other non-american regions (china, australia), but I could be wrong.

    So I expect second half of 2018 the earliest, first half of 2019 the latest.

    I just got an invite to meet the model X at an event in Munich, half a year after the launch event in California.
     
  10. salamagd

    salamagd Member

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2013
    Messages:
    188
    Location:
    Melbourne, Australia
    Australia (right-hand drive) - expecting first half of 2019 here, if we're lucky :)
     
  11. crazybarracuda

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2016
    Messages:
    21
    Location:
    michigan
    east coast hoping first half of 2018 after the snow leaves. going with longest range possible and best range
     
  12. Mad Hungarian

    Mad Hungarian Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2015
    Messages:
    272
    Location:
    Montreal, QC, Canada
    Not a current owner or employee, east coast Canada, but I'm still hoping for first half of 2018 as the plan is to order a PxxD and I'm camping out two nights in front of the Montreal store in an effort to be one of the first in the queue on Thursday.
     
    • Like x 1
  13. Tezlah

    Tezlah Member

    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2015
    Messages:
    45
    Location:
    NoVA
    East Coast non-owner.. not interested in larger battery, as long as the base car does in fact get 200 realistic miles range. Looking to pay around $42,000. The only options I really care about are heated seats and autopilot. I want cloth seats, standard sound system. I'll be reserving early on the 31st, hoping to get my relatively low spec 3 by mid 2019. Reserving early to increase my chances
     
  14. MTL_HABS1909

    MTL_HABS1909 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2016
    Messages:
    87
    Location:
    Montreal, Canada
    We'll probably get our cars on the same day ;)
     
    • Like x 1
  15. rnelsonee

    rnelsonee Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2016
    Messages:
    95
    Location:
    Maryland
    Haha, that's pretty much where I'm at, too (unless they offer fake leather, which I prefer). If you're going to reserve at the Tysons service center, I'll probably see you there!
     
  16. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2014
    Messages:
    1,349
    Location:
    Norway
    *sigh* - Living in Europe, and ordering probably a fairly bare-bone Model 3.... :/ I was originally hoping for a Q3 2018 delivery, but that was before I heard about the way they will prioritize the deliveries, and before it was known that employees would have the first shoot...

    ... But, just like you in the US have this 200k limit with a phase out period, we have a date limit with a phase out period. The first date is 1/1-2018, but I never even hoped to get it before that. But the next date - as far as I know now - is 1/1-2019 (and then 1/1-2020). So I do really really hope for a Christmas present from Elon in 2018! ;)
     
    • Like x 1
  17. S3XY

    S3XY Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2015
    Messages:
    305
    Location:
    Buffalo, NY
    Hmm, from reading previous posts I guess I'm overly optimistic. East coast non-everything, ordering in-store, hoping to get bigger battery,dual motors, and probably not much else ($50ish). I'm hoping for a mid 2018 delivery but would not be surprised if it's late 2018..
     
  18. Bokonon

    Bokonon Title-customizing Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2016
    Messages:
    86
    Location:
    Newton, MA
    I'm in the same boat.... east coast, non-owner, mid-level configuration. I am hoping for mid-2018 while thinking late 2018 will be more realistic. (My current car's lease is up on October 1st, so I could also be biased by the hope that I won't need to scramble around for another stop-gap!)
     
  19. voltage

    voltage Member

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2016
    Messages:
    14
    Location:
    Raleigh, NC
    Resurrecting this thread to give folks another shot at this. Will post here again hopefully around 2018 with my actual delivery date.
     
  20. ModelNforNerd

    ModelNforNerd Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2015
    Messages:
    1,277
    Location:
    Ayer, MA
    I've reassessed my situation.

    No mid-level....must. check. ALL. BOXES!!!!!

    but, as an East Coast non-owner, reserving in-store early Thursday, my "over/under" is March 31, 2018 (end of Q1).
     

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