Predicting Initial Model 3 Options and Cost

[farzyness]

Hi gang,

See below chart. Items in yellow are options that I think will be available on day 1. In the case of the glass roof, I think Tesla will only make the glass roof available on Day 1 with the option to get a regular roof as production ramps (helps with margin).

EDIT: Made change to the chart at the last minute.

 

[habanero69]

A base 3 P75D approx $8K over a S 75D? Just can't see that...

 

[boaterva]

Model 3 Owners had a post where Trevor confirmed (take that for what's it worth, from his sources) that there would be only the two options at launch. So, what I and even he thought (that Elon's statement was an analogy or hyperbole) was wrong, and it's only the wheels and paint. And seats are supposed to be Black only.

If that is so, that changes a lot of the 'initial possibilities'. And why would FSD not be available if someone wants to pay for it?

Also, Elon stated for what *that's* worth that options would cost less on the 3. These prices seem to be the same for software, Sub-Zero, etc.

 

[Foxhound199]

I know this has been a topic of debate, but the more I think about it, the less it makes sense to offer the $35k base initially. Why? Because the perfect time to start making the cheaper model is when the tax credit starts running out. Remember, Tesla has been careful never to point out that this car could possibly cost $27,500 after rebates. It's also very conspicuous that Musk thought the average cost configured would be around $42,000. Translation? The cheapest version at launch will be around $42k, allowing them to point out that customers are capable of getting a $35k Tesla. To counter a potential drop in demand following the loss of the tax credits, Tesla will begin producing the true base model, so again a $35k Tesla will remain available.

 

[206er]

I know this has been a topic of debate, but the more I think about it, the less it makes sense to offer the $35k base initially. Why? Because the perfect time to start making the cheaper model is when the tax credit starts running out. Remember, Tesla has been careful never to point out that this car could possibly cost $27,500 after rebates. It's also very conspicuous that Musk thought the average cost configured would be around $42,000. Translation? The cheapest version at launch will be around $42k, allowing them to point out that customers are capable of getting a $35k Tesla. To counter a potential drop in demand following the loss of the tax credits, Tesla will begin producing the true base model, so again a $35k Tesla will remain available.

FWIW, I think that this would be seen as deceptive and jumped on by anti-Tesla/anti-Elon interests left and right, which probably isn't that appealing to Elon. I think that there will definitely be a $35k base option available upon launch, along with wheel, paint, and possibly a package option (or 2) for additional costs. This car will be one of the most important personal vehicles ever produced, and a $35k base option is going to be a huge part of that.

 

[Foxhound199]

I just don't see how that's deceptive. The current website's price after incentives and gas savings is deceptive. This isn't. Nowhere did they imply that you would be able to get a Tesla for under $35k, with or without incentives.

 

[206er]

 

[McRat]

A base 3 P75D approx $8K over a S 75D? Just can't see that...

You pay for performance. A BMW 3 series is 1/2 the price of the M3. The M3 is $13k more than the base 5 series.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Hi gang,

See below chart. Items in yellow are options that I think will be available on day 1. In the case of the glass roof, I think Tesla will only make the glass roof available on Day 1 with the option to get a regular roof as production ramps (helps with margin).

View attachment 232331

EDIT: Made change to the chart at the last minute.

Fully loaded for $102K?

 

[T34ME]

but the more I think about it, the less it makes sense to offer the $35k base initially. Why? Because the perfect time to start making the cheaper model is when the tax credit starts running out.

In my opinion, You will be able to configure a $35K car as soon as the configurator opens to any reservationist. HOWEVER, that $35K car will not be available to you for a year or more. That dovetails nicely with your theory about tax incentives expiring and it also dovetails nicely with getting a $42K car at startup for $35K after the rebate!

 

[McRat]

Fully loaded for $102K?

The Model S fully loaded is over $169,000.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

The Model S fully loaded is over $169,000.

Again, this car isn't supposed to be as technologically advanced or luxurious as the S, so even if you are factoring in things "included" in the P75D....I find it hard to believe you're going to start at $82,000 for it.

Ease of manufacturing, people.....

The P75D will start in the 60s. You'll max out in the low 80s.

 

[arnis]

Up to 80k is my guess. P75D will not be as ludicrous as S.
We can expect battery output be the limit. As always.
And 75kWh Model 3 battery might give 5-10% more juice than 75kWh battery on S.
There will definitely be no need for inconel fuse and stuff like that.

 

[JSkrehot]

Hi gang,

See below chart. Items in yellow are options that I think will be available on day 1. In the case of the glass roof, I think Tesla will only make the glass roof available on Day 1 with the option to get a regular roof as production ramps (helps with margin).

View attachment 232331

EDIT: Made change to the chart at the last minute.

$37,000 difference for P only? Who the F would pay that?!!!! I'm assuming it will also come with air suspension as you have a $0 there and not a NA, however, still infuc$ing sane price that I would hope nobody would ever spend for 2 options. Is it that high on the S?! People and the $$ they like to throw away. That much $$ for just the P I mean, rest of the chart looks ok.

 

[JSkrehot]

Hi gang,

See below chart. Items in yellow are options that I think will be available on day 1. In the case of the glass roof, I think Tesla will only make the glass roof available on Day 1 with the option to get a regular roof as production ramps (helps with margin).

View attachment 232331

EDIT: Made change to the chart at the last minute.

Has every box I need to check, my car will be 56k and 46k after federal and state. Nice.

 

[boaterva]

If the information about all the 'first' production (whatever that means) have the larger battery is correct, then there is no way those cost $35K before the US incentive. As was said, you can configure a 'base' car and you'll get it maybe next year sometime?

 

[farzyness]

$37,000 difference for P only? Who the F would pay that?!!!! I'm assuming it will also come with air suspension as you have a $0 there and not a NA, however, still infuc$ing sane price that I would hope nobody would ever spend for 2 options. Is it that high on the S?! People and the $$ they like to throw away. That much $$ for just the P I mean, rest of the chart looks ok.

I would recommend speccing up a Model S to 100D, and then switch it to a P100D.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I would recommend speccing up a Model S to 100D, and then switch it to a P100D.

Economy of scale. They're going to sell more 3-P75D's than they are S-P100D's.

 

[tsla007]

about 10k off. He posted the price of an L on the right not a D.
I hope for the people waiting in line who really want the D model - prices will be posted of those options.
So, you can either have more time to raise the money or settle for a car right away.

 

[R.S]

Economy of scale. They're going to sell more 3-P75D's than they are S-P100D's.

It would still be much cheaper than a P100D, though... But I'd also say it will be cheaper than 80k, 65-75k, depending on how powerful it will be.

In my opinion, You will be able to configure a $35K car as soon as the configurator opens to any reservationist. HOWEVER, that $35K car will not be available to you for a year or more. That dovetails nicely with your theory about tax incentives expiring and it also dovetails nicely with getting a $42K car at startup for $35K after the rebate!

I am 99% sure this will happen. They will start with the bigger pack first and if the Model 3 configurator happens to be like the one they tested for the S, this will be a "premium" trim level, so more "options" standard.

If they sell it for $42,500 it will surely bring more people to order a more expensive car, because the $7,500 incentive is about to go, so the extra range, etc., is "basically free". One tweet from Elon, telling people to hurry up because of the tax credit, and no one will wait for the base version.