Prediction: 50% Of All New Cars Sold Globally Will Be Electric By 2033

In 15 years electric cars will take half of the global market?

According to the DNV GL forecast, the growth of electric car sales will accelerate and it will take the shape of an S-shaped curve of innovation.

In result, 50% of all new cars sold globally to be electric by 2033, which is about 15 years from now (today’s average is roughly 20 times lower).

DNV GL says also that in the main phase, we will see growth from less than 10% to more than 90% within 10 years.

We need to wait a few years to reach double-digit market share on a global scale (some countries already enjoy this level of EV revolution).

The barriers noted by DNV GL that slow down the pace are higher upfront costs of EVs, range anxiety and an insufficient charging infrastructure. We assume that a few years from now it will be way better both in terms of models to choose from and the infrastructure perspective.



“These are the findings of DNV GL’s annual Energy Transition Outlook, which provides a forecast of the global energy landscape up to 2050.

Statistics from the World Economic Forum reveal that several countries, including Germany, Norway, Netherlands, UK, France and India have already set out targets to phase-out or ban petrol and diesel cars in the years to come. The forecasts in DNV GL’s Energy Transition Outlook reveal that these targets are achievable. However, there are challenges facing the uptake of EVs, including cost, range anxiety and concerns about infrastructure.

With a mission to shift the industry from being policy-driven to market-driven and support its our customers to overcome these challenges, DNV GL has today outlined its ambitions for the growing sector. Based on 10 years of experience working with stakeholders across the EV value-chain, including automotive OEMs, charge point operators, network operators, utilities and governments, DNV GL has identified four clear areas of expertise; safety, communication and control, flexibility and emerging technologies.

With a focus on these four areas, DNV GL will support its customers to adopt new technologies, implement policy and make decisions that adapt current technological, economical, and regulatory business models to take advantage of this rapidly growing market.

As part of its strategic focus on the EV market, DNV GL has appointed Jeremy Parkes as global business lead for EVs. Jeremy has 20 years’ experience in the automotive and renewable energy industries, at Rolls Royce, Garrad Hassan and Belltown Power. He has a proven ability to deliver strategic insight and achieve substantial growth in new business areas and will be responsible for defining and developing DNV GL’s services in the EV sector, to cement the company’s role as a leader in this fast-developing field.”

“The full Energy Transition Outlook ‘Power Supply and Use’ report is available for a free download at eto.dnvgl.com. This publication is part of DNV GL’s suite of Energy Transition Outlook reports.”



Speaking about his appointment, Jeremy Parkes commented:



“The EV revolution is the start of a huge transition in the automotive industry, which has been dominated by the internal combustion engine for more than a century. I am excited to have joined DNV GL to help accelerate this transition through projects that drive down the overall cost of ownership, improve vehicle range and efficiently integrate charging infrastructure. The combination of electric vehicles, substantial growth in renewable energy generation and the expansion of smart grid solutions will be key enablers of the clean and flexible energy systems of the future.”



Ditlev Engel, CEO, DNV GL – Energy commented:



“The growth of EVs signals real progress in reducing our carbon emissions globally. To overcome the challenges facing the industry, the development of EVs and associated infrastructure will need to go from being only policy-driven to also being market-driven. I’m excited to announce our ambitions for the industry and pleased to welcome Jeremy to the team. Through this new commitment and the breadth and depth of our knowledge, we will help existing and future customers navigate the EV revolution and make the most of its opportunities.”



This article originally appeared on Inside EVs.

 

[dfwatt]

This is encouraging for sure. Let's hope it's enough to help forestall the worst of climate change (CC). It's possible, given how the slope of the early bottom of the 'S' curve predicts how quickly the disruptive technology will hit these classic benchmarks (such as 33%, 50% and 66%), that we may see 50% penetration even slightly before the 15 year estimate, as we are now clearly past the bottom of the 'S' curve (where we were stuck for a long time) and into the period of rapid and exponential growth. Variables effecting this slope are for sure complex and might might include at least the following:

1) the state of the global economy, which looks increasingly fragile in the short term and unstable and uncertain in the long term, given the very impact of climate change on vulnerable sections of the economy, and the increasing gap between wealthy and poor nations, such that poorer nations will be highly motivated to ramp up consumption of FF without major assistance from the wealthier economies. Ironically, there is decent evidence in economics that these gaps between both wealthy and poor citizens and wealthy and poor economies are actually destabilizing and promote more extreme business and economic cycling;

2) whether tax incentives are ramped up or curtailed to support or inhibit transition to EV tech, particularly in USA but globally also;

3) how good the EV tech really is, compared to traditional ICE vehicles - how good a CAR do you get in other words, forgetting the ecological issues for a second? Adoption will be slowed vs. accelerated hugely by this variable, in terms of how consumers see these choices, and whether consumers see little to no concession in functionality in EV tech, or perhaps even functional benefits. The overall competence and excellence of the Model 3 has been very large IMHO in helping accelerate the transition - EV tech being fun to drive and performing well helps the transition in other words, as it removes at least some of the traditional trade offs between performance and convenience vs. ecology;

4) how effective the fossil fuel companies discrediting and denial campaigns prove to be in blunting anxiety about CC. Hopefully, these operations won't be any more effective than they were around the realities of tobacco smoke (where the same tactics and even the same personnel appear involved). FF money of course corrupts the political process, and contributes to erosion of #2.

5) Infrastructure to support large scale EV charging, with progress towards minimizing down-time and no cost penalties for use of the grid (no charging surcharges over regional electric rates IOW - this not only impacts consumers sense of trade-offs (#3) but also cost of operation, which needs to soundly beat ICE cars to accelerate the transition. Tesla had this building of adequate infrastructure target in mind from the get-go, and is clearly way out in front of everyone else. But there may need to be cross-brand charging integration for this to really work and achieve huge penetration of EV into our transportation network. How such integration of normally highly brand-siloed charging tech might happen is unmapped, but certainly not impossible;

6) Economies of scale, continuing evolution of battery tech to under $50/kwh, and even development of possible ultracapacitors based on graphene tech that could completely solve the charging down-time issue - all of these help remove significant impediments to wide scale adoption and improve the cost metrics of EV vs. ICE - we have already reached the point where cost of operation is significantly less for most EV - these will help make EV tech an increasingly obvious economic slam dunk relative to ICE;

Big Picture - What do we need? We need an integrated Marshall-Plan type approach to the transition away from FF, operating on mutliple levels. EV tech will be a critical piece, perhaps even arguably the most critical single piece, but political efforts, with strong push back against FF denial and disinformation campaigns, exposure and discrediting of FF proxies embedded in many political systems and active work on all of the above 6 issues. Of course, EV tech powered from a dirty grid doesn't solve carbon pollution, but transformation of the grid involves many of the same issues (particularly FF disinformation, and corruption of political process from FF money, vs. evidence that renewable energy over the long term is not just ecologically better but cheaper, and getting cheaper all the time while FF is getting more expensive).

Those of us involved in EV tech here with Tesla are best positioned to educate others about this wide range of issues, and influence the process in a positive way. We are running out of time in which to change the direction of our technological civilization. If we care about our kids and the world they are going to inherit from us, we can't accelerate this transition too soon.

 

[SageBrush]

What a pile of self-serving marketing drivel by 'DNV.'

 

[dfwatt]

What a pile of self-serving marketing drivel by 'DNV.'

Curious what your beef with them is about? It is because they also do fossil fuel work around oil and gas drilling?