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Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

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Indeed. Looking at the CAISO chart from that day, if NG was required to complete openly in the free energy market, it could have gone down to 0 GW during that heavy duration of solar PV curtailment. A rough eyeball figuring of the chart - it appears 30 GWh of NG could have been avoided that day.
I really wish that CA could require more NG curtailment instead of renewable curtailment.
 
Indeed. Looking at the CAISO chart from that day, if NG was required to compete openly in the free energy market, it could have gone down to 0 GW during that heavy duration of solar PV curtailment. A rough eyeball figuring of the chart - it appears 30 GWh of NG could have been avoided that day.
According to this chart ~40GWh, enough to charge 1M EVs at 40KWh/ea, or 160M miles of driving at 4mi/KWh.
7CF00B27-235D-4354-B55E-8188007B1DAE.png
 
Indeed. Looking at the CAISO chart from that day, if NG was required to compete openly in the free energy market, it could have gone down to 0 GW during that heavy duration of solar PV curtailment. A rough eyeball figuring of the chart - it appears 30 GWh of NG could have been avoided that day.

I can be hard to tell if curtailment was due to supply/demand issues or transmission issues. The NG generator may have been closer to where the demand was and just wasn't constrained by transmission.
 
Indeed. Looking at the CAISO chart from that day, if NG was required to compete openly in the free energy market, it could have gone down to 0 GW during that heavy duration of solar PV curtailment. A rough eyeball figuring of the chart - it appears 30 GWh of NG could have been avoided that day.

The contract just need to be amended to pay for what the utility would have paid less cost of NG (effectively, still making the NG profitable sitting idle). Net effect is less NG consumed while still keeping the NG plant operator happy. The WH could put this as part of the Defense Production Act.
 
I can be hard to tell if curtailment was due to supply/demand issues or transmission issues. The NG generator may have been closer to where the demand was and just wasn't constrained by transmission.
The chart above said “Economic-Local” was most of it. If anybody has a Twitter account, perhaps tweet to Elon showing how much renewable electricity is curtailed each weekend. Then suggest that Tesla (or Elon with his 60 million followers) should negotiate with the utilities to provide FREE EV charging 10am-3pm Saturday and Sunday. Let’s capture some of that wasted electricity.
 
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According to this chart ~40GWh, enough to charge 1M EVs at 40KWh/ea, or 160M miles of driving at 4mi/KWh.
View attachment 796224
The ~30 GWh was in reference just to the NG that was burned for generation under minimum contract guarantee that could instead have theoretically been curtailed under ideal circumstances (assuming no local/system deliver/transmission islanding constraints of renewables). So was looking at the 2-3 GW NG generation floor that persisted for the sun drenched part of the day while solar production was being heavily throttled.

The ~40 GWh in the charts here appears to be from all renewable curtailment and some of this looks to have come from imports and large hydro, beyond the main culprit - NG.
 
The chart above said “Economic-Local” was most of it. If anybody has a Twitter account, perhaps tweet to Elon showing how much renewable electricity is curtailed each weekend. Then suggest that Tesla (or Elon with his 60 million followers) should negotiate with the utilities to provide FREE EV charging 10am-3pm Saturday and Sunday. Let’s capture some of that wasted electricity.

The benefit of smart charging is glaringly obvious. Of course, in a solar-heavy location, you want daytime smart loads, rather than night-time, but that just means that hooking up with employers, retirees and people working from home would be advantageous.
 
I can be hard to tell if curtailment was due to supply/demand issues or transmission issues. The NG generator may have been closer to where the demand was and just wasn't constrained by transmission.
Yeah, it'd be super interesting to know exactly why so much gas is still spinning, despite having tons of renewables being curtailed. Just looking at the data from yesterday, there was 2-3 GW of renewables being curtailed from 11 am - 4 pm, but upwards of 6-7 GW of gas spinning.

That tells me that renewables can't get the energy to where it's being consumed for some reason - is it transmission constraints? Or is it grid-support services? Or a combination?

It'll be interesting to see how another 2-3 GW and 8-10 GWh of batteries changes things...
 

But the US, in the wake of an oil and gas boom, just so happens to have millions of oil and gas wells sitting abandoned across the country. And oil and gas wells, it turns out, happen to share many of the same characteristics as geothermal wells — namely that they are deep holes in the ground, with pipes that can bring fluids up to the surface. So, the DOE asks, why not repurpose them?
 

But the US, in the wake of an oil and gas boom, just so happens to have millions of oil and gas wells sitting abandoned across the country. And oil and gas wells, it turns out, happen to share many of the same characteristics as geothermal wells — namely that they are deep holes in the ground, with pipes that can bring fluids up to the surface. So, the DOE asks, why not repurpose them?
Hmmm, maybe a job for the Boring Company.
 
Too many new coal-fired plants planned for 1.5C climate goal, report concludes

The number of coal-fired power plants under development around the world fell last year, but far too much coal is still being burned and too many new coal-fired power plants are planned for the world to stay within safe temperature limits. Coal use appeared to be in long-term decline before the Covid-19 pandemic, but lockdowns around the world and economic upheaval drove an increase in new coal projects in 2020, particularly in China.
 
If you think the FUD against Tesla is great the FUD for decades against nuclear energy is far worse.
Yes of course. The US is probably the most conservative in the western hemisphere, and wide adoption of nuclear energy will be an uphill battle for sure. But I'm hoping that the government will take the lead in minimizing that FUD through education and legislation. The new designs all have a much much lower chance of meltdowns. And pair that with size of these SMRs and MMRs can hopefully alleviate some fear. Alternative fuel sources can also address concerns about waste and nuclear proliferation. Well, I can hope, can't I?
 
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Yes of course. The US is probably the most conservative in the western hemisphere, and wide adoption of nuclear energy will be an uphill battle for sure. But I'm hoping that the government will take the lead in minimizing that FUD through education and legislation. The new designs all have a much much lower chance of meltdowns. And pair that with size of these SMRs and MMRs can hopefully alleviate some fear. Alternative fuel sources can also address concerns about waste and nuclear proliferation. Well, I can hope, can't I?

Nuclear power has 3 problems. Cost, Cost and Cost. If it was actually even close to being remotely affordable nothing else would matter. Not only is it too expensive... it's laughably too expensive. It's hiring a private jet to take the family to Europe too expensive.

The high cost is driven by a fundamental flaw with nuclear power. It uses heat to make electricity... which is inherently one of the most expensive ways to make electricity. The only way for nuclear power to be viable is to find a way to make electricity without using heat as an intermediate step. There's a reason ~no modern ship uses steam for propulsion anymore. Economics. Economics matters.
 
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Nuclear power has 3 problems. Cost, Cost and Cost. If it was actually even close to being remotely affordable nothing else would matter. Not only is it too expensive... it's laughably too expensive. It's hiring a private jet to take the family to Europe too expensive.

The high cost is driven by a fundamental flaw with nuclear power. It uses heat to make electricity... which is inherently one of the most expensive ways to make electricity. The only way for nuclear power to be viable is to find a way to make electricity without using heat as an intermediate step. There's a reason ~no modern ship uses steam for propulsion anymore. Economics. Economics matters.
Indeed. From EIA 2022 Annual Energy Outlook, Levelized Costs of New Generation:
1651148289467.png

Doesn't stand a chance. Your choice of CCGT, Geothermal, onshore wind, solar, solar hybrid, or a combination. And all of those take 2 years or less to build.
 
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Indeed. From EIA 2022 Annual Energy Outlook, Levelized Costs of New Generation:
View attachment 798382
Doesn't stand a chance. Your choice of CCGT, Geothermal, onshore wind, solar, solar hybrid, or a combination. And all of those take 2 years or less to build.

It would be interesting to see how they came up with those numbers. Just the capital ($30B) cost of Vogtle spread over 20 years producing ~16,000GWh/yr comes out to $94/MWh. And that's not including O&M which is ~$200M/GW/yr and will add at LEAST another $24/MWh. That's $118/MWh minimum. Once you add in curtailment and equipment replacements the cost can EASILY be >$150/MWh.

Sadly forward looking statements by the EIA don't have a very good track record.

Experts are Hilariously Bad at Forecasting Solar Installations

 
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Still holding out hope that the multitude of advancements in nuclear power will materialize in my lifetime. That's the holy grail of clean energy in my mind.
Nuclear has its pluses and minuses. It may not be the best option for the electricity grid, but it is hard to beat for generating power for an aircraft carrier. Other uses are interesting also, like powering a Mars habitat and an antarctic station. Someday we might want to melt the sands of the deserts for creating islands in the oceans, nuclear might play a role here too.
 
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