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Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

Discussion in 'Energy, Environment, and Policy' started by nwdiver, Jun 17, 2016.

  1. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    70 years ago my grandparents had a coal furnace and coal bin for home heating. They got rid of it and converted the coal bin (actually an entire room) to a workshop. Amazing that people in Poland are still heating with coal.
     
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  2. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

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    Indeed it has, but that is distinct from a social cost of carbon
     
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  3. dgpcolorado

    dgpcolorado high altitude member

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    About six years ago I stayed overnight in winter in Silverton, a small town at 9200 feet south of Red Mountain Pass. Some houses still used coal for heat. Went for a walk around town in the evening and the coal smoke in the air in that high mountain valley was so thick that it gave me a headache. Coal smoke has a very unpleasant smell as well.

    Things must have been pretty bad in the old days when big cities used coal for heat.
     
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  4. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    It depends significantly on the type of coal.
     
  5. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    I believe London last century was the poster child for coal pollution.
    (Love Silverton)
     
  6. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    So how do you incorporate the social cost into our economy?
     
  7. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

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    You get a president who decides to set a value.

    Done
     
  8. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    So, the President can declare a tax without Congress?
    How would that work?
     
  9. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

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    It would not (work).

    No tax involved.

    You may wish to read up on the social cost of carbon. Biden has set its (re)valuation in motion, expected in under 4 weeks.
     
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  10. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    I'm just not sure how a social cost would be incorporated into the economy. I know there is a social cost and lots of different ways to calculate it but how would you use it?
    They come up with a dollar figure. What next?
     
  11. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

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    Then that figure is used in all regulatory planning.

    One example: my local utility recommended to our PRC that NG be built in their 10 year plan instead of PV/Wind, based on a social cost of carbon of $4/ton as set by the prior federal administration. I expect Biden to listen to best science and set it to at least $60 a ton, with a rapid escalation.
     
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  12. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    Could be a powerful force in regulation.
     
  13. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

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    Not just could. It is
     
  14. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    Big oil companies are facing the moment of truth. The stakes couldn't be higher - CNN

    US companies are operating under the assumption that these problems will be short-lived. While they haven't provided a timeline for the post-pandemic recovery, they see demand for oil booming for decades to come, especially as economies in developing countries like India pick up speed.
    In Europe, meanwhile, there's a growing acceptance that demand for oil could peak soon — if it hasn't already.
    "It's too late to start in five years' time," Clint said. "I think [the] Europeans are right, and are following this path at a suitable [pace]."
     
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  15. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    An industry 'operating on borrowed time’: Energy experts on the increasing risks ahead for Big Oil

    “Was 2019 peak oil? That’s very likely. Even if 2019 proves not to have been peak oil, this is an industry that is really operating on borrowed time,” Muffett said. “That’s why you see at least some of the majors starting to recognize that they need to more aggressively build a portfolio beyond oil.”

    Williams-Derry said that, in addition to the Covid pandemic, the global oil and gas industry was likely to continue to face pressure from renewables. Cheap wind and solar storage are “starting to eat away at their market share and the market dominance of the oil and gas sector.”

    “Every little bit of renewable installation is just chipping away at the dominance of oil and gas,” Williams-Derry said. “In my opinion, we are at the thin end of the wedge where those things are just starting to eat into demand and I think that is going to accelerate. This may not happen over the course of one year or two years, but it is a long-term trend that the oil and gas industry has not had to face before.”
     
  16. miimura

    miimura Well-Known Member

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  17. dgpcolorado

    dgpcolorado high altitude member

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    #1758 dgpcolorado, Feb 8, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2021
    One of the letters about the column mentioned that the author didn't point out that something like 90% of fossil fuels are burned, so that focus on other products was a bit misleading.

    For me, the irony is that my high school chemistry teacher in the late '60s, during our organic chemistry unit, said how much of a waste it was that we were burning oil instead of saving it for petrochemical purposes. He had a chemical industry background. That was a long time ago! (Yes, it also means that I am old.)
     
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  18. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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  19. dgpcolorado

    dgpcolorado high altitude member

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