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Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

Discussion in 'Energy, Environment, and Policy' started by nwdiver, Jun 17, 2016.

  1. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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  2. dgpcolorado

    dgpcolorado high altitude member

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    Quite the opposite. Those companies are actively trying to diversify into renewables, because they see the limited future for fossil energy, and the buy-in for offshore leases is fairly small by their standards.
     
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  3. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    If there's anything questionable, it's that controlling the wind generation would allow them to guarantee power for renewables-to-hydrogen, instead of it being sold for smart charging.
     
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  4. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

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    Interesting. From the article
    Keeping their 'commitments' my butt. I'll believe that they are hedging the carbon trading market
     
  5. Merrill

    Merrill Merrill

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    I find it hard to believe the oil companies care about the environment, the only thing they care about is money.
     
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  6. dgpcolorado

    dgpcolorado high altitude member

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    And some (few) of them can see that fossil fuels are a declining industry while there is money to be made in renewable energy.
     
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  7. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

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    Orsted was outbid and said that the oil companie's bid was "unsustainable," which I take to mean as unprofitable as a pure energy play. That is why I think a hedge against carbon taxes was the motivator.
     
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  8. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    Shell to expand gas business despite pledge to speed up net-zero carbon drive
    Shell’s oil production reached a peak in 2019, and will continue to fall by 1-2% a year, but the fossil fuel multinational plans to expand its capacity for exporting gas by 7m tonnes a year by the middle of the decade

    It plans to offset its own carbon emissions, and the carbon emissions from the fossil fuels it sells, by accessing carbon capture projects and “nature-based solutions” such as planting trees or restoring natural habitats.
     
  9. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

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    #1769 SageBrush, Feb 11, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2021
    Carbon taxes is not the best description. I was thinking of the costs Shell may be exposed to as part of the European carbon trading market. I know the market is "hot" right now, after years in the doldrums.

    EU price on pollution hits record high in early 2021

    As one example, one gallon of oil emits ~ 25 lbs of CO2 from mining through combustion. If the supply chain pays 33 EU per tonne in purchased carbon certificates, that works out to 41 Euro cents per gallon ... and the carbon costs are expected to continue to rise rapidly over the next 10 years.

    I am not sure how the EU translates clean electricity into carbon offsets for oil. Anybody know ? Here is one calculator from the UK but I don't know if it applicable to the EU-ETS. If it is, then we are currently talking about ~ 0.8 Euro cents per kWh added value to the off-shore wind. Not hard to see how Orsted would be outbid by the oil companies.
     
  10. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) - Climate Action - European Commission

    Search for "A 'cap and trade' system"

    TLDR: it's cap and trade. Organizations can buy spare allowances from other organizations to cover their excess.

    So Evil Oil Ltd's
    - Dirty Work Department has allowance A and uses D > A
    - Greenwashing Department has allowance B and uses G < B
    As long as D + G <= A + B, they're good.
     
    • Funny x 1
  11. ReddyLeaf

    ReddyLeaf Active Member

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    I know everyone seems to be talking about TX, but it’s interesting that 35 GW of solar and wind, as well as a lot of batteries, are in the development pipeline. That will massively change the economics of fossil fueled power plants. Sure hope that the new ones are winterized.:) Hmmm, maybe that’s why the older gas generators never bothered to winterize: they knew that they would be obsolete in 5-10 years.:eek:
    [​IMG]
    Texas to Add 35 Gigawatts of Wind & Solar in Next 3 Years — Boosting Grid Resilience
     
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  12. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    Electric Power Monthly!

    February, for capacity changes and generation December 2020, and so the whole year.

    Coal rolling 12 month generation closed on nuclear, but generation for 2020 was below that of nuclear.

    December saw a rebound in coal generation, as we begin to compare with the mild winter of 2019/2020.

    Although coal generation rebounded slightly, the rebound was less than the growth in renewable generation so rolling utility-scale renewable generation remained above coal generation. (Including estimated small-scale solar, renewable generation first exceeded coal in September 2020).

    Coal capacity was reduced by 1,649.4MW in December 2020, to 220,073.4MW. Forecast capacity reductions increased by 803.2MW to -2,942.2MW.

    Coal's rolling 12 month share increased by 0.12% to 19.10%, a drop of 4.08% from 12 months ago. Coal was 48.21% of generation in 2008. December 2020 generation was 78.7TWh compared to 72.6TWh in 2019, and rolling 12 month generation falling to 773,8TWh compared to 965.0TWh a year ago.

    Nuclear capacity was unchanged in December 2020, at 96,554.8MW. Planned capacity reductions increased by 1.6MW to -4,033.3MW.

    Nuclear generation was down in December 2020 (69.9TWh v 73.1TWh), with rolling generation at 789.9TWh compared with 809.4TWh to December 2019.

    Coal generation in December is one of the high months, but variable depending on the onsets of winter. . Although December generation was higher than in 2019, it was still much lower than the 96.8TWh in December 2018.

    Rolling 12 month coal generation has fallen 191.2TWh in 12 months. Coal generation in 2020 was 16.1TWh less than nuclear. December's capacity factor was up as expected with the colder winter, the coal capacity has reduced 10.2GW in 2020. With nuclear reductions having been much less, although more nuclear capacity is forecast to close in 2021 than coal (4.0GW v 2.9GW), it's still looking quite possible that rolling nuclear generation will remain above that of coal through the next 12 months.

    Coal generation capacity factors rose to 48.6%, up from 43.2% in December 2020, although still significanty lower than the 55.9% in 2018.

    Coal's average capacity factor for 2020 was 40.1%, compared to 47.5% in 2019.

    Coal and Nuclear

    Coal:

    Capacity (MW):

    PeriodPriorChangeNewChange
    Month220,073.4-1,649.4218,424.0-0.75%
    YTD228,657.4-10,233.4218,424.0-4.48%
    Rolling228,657.4-10,233.4218,424.0-4.48%
    Plan +12mo-3,788.4-803.2-2,942.2-1.35%
    Capacity Factor (MW):

    ValuePriorChangeNewChange
    Month Capacity229,241.4-10,817.4218,424.0-4.72%
    Month Factor43.2%5.4%48.6%12.50%
    Rolling 12mo Factor47.5%-7.4%40.1%-15.52%
    Generation (GWh):

    YearMonthYTDRollingMonth %YTD%Rolling
    201972,554964,957964,95721.38%23.18%23.18%
    202078,700773,805773,80522.65%19.10%19.10%
    Difference6,146-191,152-191,1521.26%-4.08%-4.08%
    Nuclear:

    Capacity (MW):

    PeriodPriorChangeNewChange
    Month96,554.80.096,554.80.00%
    YTD98,119.0-1,564.296,554.8-1.59%
    Rolling98,119.0-1,564.296,554.8-1.59%
    Plan +12mo-4,034.91.6-4,033.3-4.18%
    Capacity Factor (MW):

    ValuePriorChangeNewChange
    Month Capacity98,070.2-1,515.496,554.8-1.55%
    Month Factor100.1%-2.8%97.3%-2.80%
    Rolling 12mo Factor93.4%-0.9%92.5%-0.98%
    Generation (GWh):

    YearMonthYTDRollingMonth %YTD%Rolling
    201973,074809,409809,40921.54%19.44%19.44%
    202069,871789,919789,91920.11%19.50%19.50%
    Difference-3,203-19,490-19,490-1.43%0.06%0.06%
     
    • Informative x 3
  13. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    Who will clean up the 'billion-dollar mess' of abandoned US oilwells?

    As oil companies go out of business, they are leaving a legacy of abandoned wells that leak huge amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere

    The impacts aren’t just here in the rangy fields of Wyoming. There are unremediated wells in Los Angeles neighborhoods and Pennsylvania farms. There could be as many as 3.2m abandoned wells in the US, according to a 2018 EPA report, but this is probably an undercount because both federal and state programs for regulating and monitoring non-producing wells are incomplete. There are an estimated 2,500 of them in the Powder River Basin alone.
     
  14. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    #1776 ItsNotAboutTheMoney, Feb 25, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2021
    Impact of estimated 2021 capacity changes based on 2020 capacity factors. These changes would not all be felt until 2022.


    SourcePlan MW Capacity Change 2021Capacity Factor (2020)Generation Change TWh Plan x CF
    Wind18,328.335.7%57.32
    Solar16,587.524.9%36.18
    Coal-2,942.240.1%-10.34
    Nuclear-4,033.392.5%-32.68
    NG CCGT4,101.356.6%20.32
    NG CT1,765.311.6%1.80
    NG Steam-552.914.3%-0.69
    These changes could see Coal and Nuclear generation to continue being very close to each with coal slightly ahead.

    The impact of the significant increase in renewables could be very interesting.
    If we say that without renewables, the coal and nuclear reductions would be replaced by NG, and that renewables then replace NG, that would imply 50.5TWh of net natural gas generation reduction. 2020 Natural gas generation was 1,616.7TWh, so the 2021 solar and wind changes, would imply a reduction in NG generation of over 3%. According to the EIA* electricity use is 36% of natural gas use, so the changes could lead to 1% reduction in natural gas overall.

    If renewables continue to growth at this rate or faster, there's an implication that substantial growth in renewables would reduce stress on natural gas supplies, which could help suppress prices, with a knock-on effect on the underlying coal v NG economics, accelerating the shift from coal to NG.

    * Use of natural gas - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 11/2020
     
    • Informative x 1
  15. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    "As coal plants close, advocates want relief for Wisconsin ratepayers | Energy News Network" As coal plants close, advocates want relief for Wisconsin ratepayers

    Now, ratepayer advocates want to make sure its owners don’t continue collecting profits from utility customers for another two decades.

    The expected closure of the 1,110-megawatt Columbia Energy Center and other fossil fuel plants in the coming years has utility customer advocates calling for expanded use of securitization, a tool for refinancing coal plant debt with low-interest bonds to relieve ratepayers from the burden of stranded costs.
     
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  16. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    US utility boss pleads guilty to fraud over failed nuclear construction scheme - News - GCR
    Kevin Marsh, who was chairman and chief executive of the South Carolina company, oversaw his company’s involvement in a failed project to build two AP1000 pressurised water reactors at the Virgil C Summer nuclear power plant in the state.

    With the guilty plea, Marsh admitted that he intentionally defrauded ratepayers by giving over-optimistic assessments of progress on the scheme so that his company could obtain rate increases from Scana’s customers and qualify for up to $2.2bn in tax credits.
     
    • Informative x 3
  17. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

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    Who wudda thunk !?!
    Not the nuke loving trumpers, that is for sure.

    How much of the $2.2B in tax credits has been 'spent' ?
    Will it stop ?
    Will it be recouped, and how ?

    In short, will SC will required to take financial responsibility for its stupidity ?
     
  18. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    It's both tax credits and also rate increases. Their customers have been paying for this for years... wanna guess if they'll get refunds?
     

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