Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Electric Power Monthly!

March for capacity changes and generation January 2021.

Coal rolling 12 month generation is back above nuclear.

January continued the rebound in coal generation as the mild winter of 2019/2020 is forgotten.

Coal generation rebounded significantly, but renewable growth continued, and rolling utility-scale renewable generation is still _just_ above coal generation. Given the trend in coal generation, it may go back above renewables in 2021, although not for long. Coal plant closures continue, and generation was still well below January 2019.

Coal capacity was reduced by 1,776.7MW in January 2021, to 216,647.3MW. Forecast capacity reductions increased by 3,652.4MW to -4,817.9MW.

Coal's rolling 12 month share increased by 0.36% to 19.46%%, a drop of 2.96% from 12 months ago. Coal was 48.21% of generation in 2008. January 2021 generation was 81.8TWh compared to 65.2TWh in 2020, and rolling 12 month generation 790.5TWh compared to 929.2TWh a year ago.

Nuclear capacity was down 117.3MW in January 2021, at 96,437.5MW. Planned capacity reductions increased by 117.3MW to -4,033.3MW.

Nuclear generation was down in January 2021 (71.8TWh v 74.2TWh), with rolling generation at 787.6TWh compared with 809.9TWh to January 2020.

Coal generation in January is one of the highest 2 months. Although January generation was much higher than in 2020, it is still much lower than the 101.0TWh in January 2019.

Rolling 12 month coal generation has fallen 138.6TWh in 12 months, but the generation is rising compared to a year ago as winter 2019/2020 was very mild, and natural gas prices were low. Rolling coal generation is now again higher than nuclear. With nuclear generation gradually reducing through attrition, regular winter weather returning coal generation to it's normal trend of decline, we might not see coal generation drop below nuclear generation again in 2021.

Coal generation capacity factors rose to 51.5%, up from 39.1% in January 2021, although still significantly lower than the 56.5% in January 2019.

Coal's rolling capacity factor is now 41.1%, compared to 46.0% a year ago.

Coal and Nuclear

Coal:

Capacity (MW):

Period	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month	218,424.0	-1,776.7	216,647.3	-0.81%
YTD	218,424.0	-1,776.7	216,647.3	-0.81%
Rolling	225,599.2	-8,951.9	216,647.3	-3.97%
Plan +12mo	-2,942.2	-3,652.4	-4,817.9	-2.22%

Capacity Factor (MW):

Value	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month Capacity	227,611.7	-10,964.4	216,647.3	-4.82%
Month Factor	39.1%	12.4%	51.5%	31.71%
Rolling 12mo Factor	46.0%	-4.9%	41.1%	-10.61%

Generation (GWh):

Year	Month	YTD	Rolling	Month %	YTD%	Rolling
2020	65,170	65,100	929,152	19.08%	18.98%	22.42%
2021	81,806	81,806	790,511	23.14%	23.14%	19.46%
Difference	16,636	16,706	-138,641	4.06%	4.16%	-2.96%

Nuclear:

Capacity (MW):

Period	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month	96,554.8	-117.3	96,437.5	-0.12%
YTD	96,554.8	-117.3	96,437.5	-0.12%
Rolling	98,127.7	-1,690.2	96,437.5	-1.72%
Plan +12mo	-4,033.3	-117.3	-4,033.3	-4.18%

Capacity Factor (MW):

Value	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month Capacity	98,042.4	-1,604.9	96,437.5	-1.64%
Month Factor	101.7%	-1.5%	100.2%	-1.47%
Rolling 12mo Factor	93.6%	-1.2%	92.4%	-1.30%

Generation (GWh):

Year	Month	YTD	Rolling	Month %	YTD%	Rolling
2020	74,204	74,170	809,878	21.72%	21.63%	19.54%
2021	71,832	71,832	787,581	20.32%	20.32%	19.39%
Difference	-2,372	-2,338	-22,297	-1.41%	-1.31%	-0.15%

 

[mblakele]

The world is kicking its coal habit. China is still hooked

The biggest carbon emitter added coal-fired capacity in 2020, offsetting declines elsewhere | Graphic detail

www.economist.com

​

[...] According to a report published this week by Global Energy Monitor, an American NGO, China commissioned 38.4 gigawatts (GW) of coal-power plants in 2020. This boost in global coal-fired capacity means that, although the rest of the world idled 37.8GW of coal plants, total capacity actually increased last year for the first time since 2015.​

​

[...]​

​

China is not the only country still clinging to coal. Joe Biden, America’s president, has called for his country’s power sector to be decarbonised by 2035. But on current trends, only one-third of America’s coal-fired power capacity will have been retired by then. Germany, India and Japan all commissioned a net increase in coal plants in 2020. But China is the land of big numbers, and in ending the world’s dependence on coal it will be China that matters most.​

 

[miimura]

GW coal capacity is not necessarily proportional to CO2 tons/year. If China is adding renewables and coal capacity together, they can guarantee electric reliability and satisfying increasing demand while still reducing their carbon intensity in g(CO2)/kWh and even their total ton(CO2)/year from coal. They key for China is to also install transmission capacity so that their renewables can be fully utilized and are not curtailed.

 

[eevee-fan]

Same old "not my fault" excuse. Emission per capita is more of an apple to apple comparison. Another scapegoat is California... yes the state has huge energy demand but when you compare per capita, it's actually one of the best!

A quote by John F. Kennedy

Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country.

www.goodreads.com

 

[eevee-fan]

EGEB: Texas wind power smashes records in March - Electrek

Texas wind topped 10.4 million MWh in March, 2 million MWh above its previous high; the UK's power grid CO2 fell to a record low on Monday.

electrek.co

I guess if we had too much power, might as well make some hydrogen instead of curtailing wind power.

 

[SageBrush]

I guess if we had too much power, might as well make some hydrogen instead of curtailing wind power.

Someone from Texas should be looking up the freezing point of hydrogen right about now ..