ItsNotAboutTheMoney
Well-Known Member
Electric Power Monthly!
March for capacity changes and generation January 2021.
Coal rolling 12 month generation is back above nuclear.
January continued the rebound in coal generation as the mild winter of 2019/2020 is forgotten.
Coal generation rebounded significantly, but renewable growth continued, and rolling utility-scale renewable generation is still _just_ above coal generation. Given the trend in coal generation, it may go back above renewables in 2021, although not for long. Coal plant closures continue, and generation was still well below January 2019.
Coal capacity was reduced by 1,776.7MW in January 2021, to 216,647.3MW. Forecast capacity reductions increased by 3,652.4MW to -4,817.9MW.
Coal's rolling 12 month share increased by 0.36% to 19.46%%, a drop of 2.96% from 12 months ago. Coal was 48.21% of generation in 2008. January 2021 generation was 81.8TWh compared to 65.2TWh in 2020, and rolling 12 month generation 790.5TWh compared to 929.2TWh a year ago.
Nuclear capacity was down 117.3MW in January 2021, at 96,437.5MW. Planned capacity reductions increased by 117.3MW to -4,033.3MW.
Nuclear generation was down in January 2021 (71.8TWh v 74.2TWh), with rolling generation at 787.6TWh compared with 809.9TWh to January 2020.
Coal generation in January is one of the highest 2 months. Although January generation was much higher than in 2020, it is still much lower than the 101.0TWh in January 2019.
Rolling 12 month coal generation has fallen 138.6TWh in 12 months, but the generation is rising compared to a year ago as winter 2019/2020 was very mild, and natural gas prices were low. Rolling coal generation is now again higher than nuclear. With nuclear generation gradually reducing through attrition, regular winter weather returning coal generation to it's normal trend of decline, we might not see coal generation drop below nuclear generation again in 2021.
Coal generation capacity factors rose to 51.5%, up from 39.1% in January 2021, although still significantly lower than the 56.5% in January 2019.
Coal's rolling capacity factor is now 41.1%, compared to 46.0% a year ago.
Coal and Nuclear
Coal:
Capacity (MW):
Capacity Factor (MW):
Generation (GWh):
Nuclear:
Capacity (MW):
Capacity Factor (MW):
Generation (GWh):
March for capacity changes and generation January 2021.
Coal rolling 12 month generation is back above nuclear.
January continued the rebound in coal generation as the mild winter of 2019/2020 is forgotten.
Coal generation rebounded significantly, but renewable growth continued, and rolling utility-scale renewable generation is still _just_ above coal generation. Given the trend in coal generation, it may go back above renewables in 2021, although not for long. Coal plant closures continue, and generation was still well below January 2019.
Coal capacity was reduced by 1,776.7MW in January 2021, to 216,647.3MW. Forecast capacity reductions increased by 3,652.4MW to -4,817.9MW.
Coal's rolling 12 month share increased by 0.36% to 19.46%%, a drop of 2.96% from 12 months ago. Coal was 48.21% of generation in 2008. January 2021 generation was 81.8TWh compared to 65.2TWh in 2020, and rolling 12 month generation 790.5TWh compared to 929.2TWh a year ago.
Nuclear capacity was down 117.3MW in January 2021, at 96,437.5MW. Planned capacity reductions increased by 117.3MW to -4,033.3MW.
Nuclear generation was down in January 2021 (71.8TWh v 74.2TWh), with rolling generation at 787.6TWh compared with 809.9TWh to January 2020.
Coal generation in January is one of the highest 2 months. Although January generation was much higher than in 2020, it is still much lower than the 101.0TWh in January 2019.
Rolling 12 month coal generation has fallen 138.6TWh in 12 months, but the generation is rising compared to a year ago as winter 2019/2020 was very mild, and natural gas prices were low. Rolling coal generation is now again higher than nuclear. With nuclear generation gradually reducing through attrition, regular winter weather returning coal generation to it's normal trend of decline, we might not see coal generation drop below nuclear generation again in 2021.
Coal generation capacity factors rose to 51.5%, up from 39.1% in January 2021, although still significantly lower than the 56.5% in January 2019.
Coal's rolling capacity factor is now 41.1%, compared to 46.0% a year ago.
Coal and Nuclear
Coal:
Capacity (MW):
Period | Prior | Change | New | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month | 218,424.0 | -1,776.7 | 216,647.3 | -0.81% |
YTD | 218,424.0 | -1,776.7 | 216,647.3 | -0.81% |
Rolling | 225,599.2 | -8,951.9 | 216,647.3 | -3.97% |
Plan +12mo | -2,942.2 | -3,652.4 | -4,817.9 | -2.22% |
Capacity Factor (MW):
Value | Prior | Change | New | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month Capacity | 227,611.7 | -10,964.4 | 216,647.3 | -4.82% |
Month Factor | 39.1% | 12.4% | 51.5% | 31.71% |
Rolling 12mo Factor | 46.0% | -4.9% | 41.1% | -10.61% |
Generation (GWh):
Year | Month | YTD | Rolling | Month % | YTD% | Rolling |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020 | 65,170 | 65,100 | 929,152 | 19.08% | 18.98% | 22.42% |
2021 | 81,806 | 81,806 | 790,511 | 23.14% | 23.14% | 19.46% |
Difference | 16,636 | 16,706 | -138,641 | 4.06% | 4.16% | -2.96% |
Nuclear:
Capacity (MW):
Period | Prior | Change | New | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month | 96,554.8 | -117.3 | 96,437.5 | -0.12% |
YTD | 96,554.8 | -117.3 | 96,437.5 | -0.12% |
Rolling | 98,127.7 | -1,690.2 | 96,437.5 | -1.72% |
Plan +12mo | -4,033.3 | -117.3 | -4,033.3 | -4.18% |
Capacity Factor (MW):
Value | Prior | Change | New | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month Capacity | 98,042.4 | -1,604.9 | 96,437.5 | -1.64% |
Month Factor | 101.7% | -1.5% | 100.2% | -1.47% |
Rolling 12mo Factor | 93.6% | -1.2% | 92.4% | -1.30% |
Generation (GWh):
Year | Month | YTD | Rolling | Month % | YTD% | Rolling |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020 | 74,204 | 74,170 | 809,878 | 21.72% | 21.63% | 19.54% |
2021 | 71,832 | 71,832 | 787,581 | 20.32% | 20.32% | 19.39% |
Difference | -2,372 | -2,338 | -22,297 | -1.41% | -1.31% | -0.15% |