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Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

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Electric Power Monthly!

March for capacity changes and generation January 2021.

Coal rolling 12 month generation is back above nuclear.

January continued the rebound in coal generation as the mild winter of 2019/2020 is forgotten.

Coal generation rebounded significantly, but renewable growth continued, and rolling utility-scale renewable generation is still _just_ above coal generation. Given the trend in coal generation, it may go back above renewables in 2021, although not for long. Coal plant closures continue, and generation was still well below January 2019.

Coal capacity was reduced by 1,776.7MW in January 2021, to 216,647.3MW. Forecast capacity reductions increased by 3,652.4MW to -4,817.9MW.

Coal's rolling 12 month share increased by 0.36% to 19.46%%, a drop of 2.96% from 12 months ago. Coal was 48.21% of generation in 2008. January 2021 generation was 81.8TWh compared to 65.2TWh in 2020, and rolling 12 month generation 790.5TWh compared to 929.2TWh a year ago.

Nuclear capacity was down 117.3MW in January 2021, at 96,437.5MW. Planned capacity reductions increased by 117.3MW to -4,033.3MW.

Nuclear generation was down in January 2021 (71.8TWh v 74.2TWh), with rolling generation at 787.6TWh compared with 809.9TWh to January 2020.

Coal generation in January is one of the highest 2 months. Although January generation was much higher than in 2020, it is still much lower than the 101.0TWh in January 2019.

Rolling 12 month coal generation has fallen 138.6TWh in 12 months, but the generation is rising compared to a year ago as winter 2019/2020 was very mild, and natural gas prices were low. Rolling coal generation is now again higher than nuclear. With nuclear generation gradually reducing through attrition, regular winter weather returning coal generation to it's normal trend of decline, we might not see coal generation drop below nuclear generation again in 2021.

Coal generation capacity factors rose to 51.5%, up from 39.1% in January 2021, although still significantly lower than the 56.5% in January 2019.

Coal's rolling capacity factor is now 41.1%, compared to 46.0% a year ago.

Coal and Nuclear

Coal:

Capacity (MW):
PeriodPriorChangeNewChange
Month218,424.0-1,776.7216,647.3-0.81%
YTD218,424.0-1,776.7216,647.3-0.81%
Rolling225,599.2-8,951.9216,647.3-3.97%
Plan +12mo-2,942.2-3,652.4-4,817.9-2.22%

Capacity Factor (MW):
ValuePriorChangeNewChange
Month Capacity227,611.7-10,964.4216,647.3-4.82%
Month Factor39.1%12.4%51.5%31.71%
Rolling 12mo Factor46.0%-4.9%41.1%-10.61%

Generation (GWh):
YearMonthYTDRollingMonth %YTD%Rolling
202065,17065,100929,15219.08%18.98%22.42%
202181,80681,806790,51123.14%23.14%19.46%
Difference16,63616,706-138,6414.06%4.16%-2.96%

Nuclear:

Capacity (MW):
PeriodPriorChangeNewChange
Month96,554.8-117.396,437.5-0.12%
YTD96,554.8-117.396,437.5-0.12%
Rolling98,127.7-1,690.296,437.5-1.72%
Plan +12mo-4,033.3-117.3-4,033.3-4.18%

Capacity Factor (MW):
ValuePriorChangeNewChange
Month Capacity98,042.4-1,604.996,437.5-1.64%
Month Factor101.7%-1.5%100.2%-1.47%
Rolling 12mo Factor93.6%-1.2%92.4%-1.30%

Generation (GWh):
YearMonthYTDRollingMonth %YTD%Rolling
202074,20474,170809,87821.72%21.63%19.54%
202171,83271,832787,58120.32%20.32%19.39%
Difference-2,372-2,338-22,297-1.41%-1.31%-0.15%
 

20210410_woc435.png
[...] According to a report published this week by Global Energy Monitor, an American NGO, China commissioned 38.4 gigawatts (GW) of coal-power plants in 2020. This boost in global coal-fired capacity means that, although the rest of the world idled 37.8GW of coal plants, total capacity actually increased last year for the first time since 2015.​
[...]​
China is not the only country still clinging to coal. Joe Biden, America’s president, has called for his country’s power sector to be decarbonised by 2035. But on current trends, only one-third of America’s coal-fired power capacity will have been retired by then. Germany, India and Japan all commissioned a net increase in coal plants in 2020. But China is the land of big numbers, and in ending the world’s dependence on coal it will be China that matters most.​
 
GW coal capacity is not necessarily proportional to CO2 tons/year. If China is adding renewables and coal capacity together, they can guarantee electric reliability and satisfying increasing demand while still reducing their carbon intensity in g(CO2)/kWh and even their total ton(CO2)/year from coal. They key for China is to also install transmission capacity so that their renewables can be fully utilized and are not curtailed.
 
Japan scraps mascot promoting Fukushima wastewater dump
The Japanese government has been forced to quickly retire an animated character it had hoped would win support for its decision this week to release more than 1m tonnes of contaminated water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant into the sea. Although the water will be treated before being discharged, it will still contain tritium, a radioactive hydrogen isotope represented on a government website by a cute fish-like creature with rosy cheeks.The Japanese government has been forced to quickly retire an animated character it had hoped would win support for its decision this week to release more than 1m tonnes of contaminated water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant into the sea. Although the water will be treated before being discharged, it will still contain tritium, a radioactive hydrogen isotope represented on a government website by a cute fish-like creature with rosy cheeks.

 
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Thousands of abandoned oil wells dot the Permian Basin in west Texas and New Mexico, endangering humans and wildlife. With oil costs plummeting, they’re likely to proliferate. Who is going to cover the cleanup costs?
 

Thousands of abandoned oil wells dot the Permian Basin in west Texas and New Mexico, endangering humans and wildlife. With oil costs plummeting, they’re likely to proliferate. Who is going to cover the cleanup costs?
Ironically they provide carbon offset opportunities.

 
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Secretary of state says countries investing in new coal ‘will hear from US’
Blinken said the US would “seize every chance we get to raise these issues with our allies and partners and through multilateral institutions”. While there was no direct reference to Australia in the speech, the Australian government has continued to promote the future of coal and members of the Nationals have been pushing for new coal-fired power plants. With the US expected to unveil a new 2030 emission cut before Biden’s summit, Blinken said: “We need the whole world focused on taking action now and through this decade to promote the achievement of net zero global emissions by 2050.”
 
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Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are among the banks that strengthened their financing restrictions on thermal coal under pressure from shareholders wanting to avoid the fuel, and the expectation is that gas is next. Executives at some western European companies say they’re already struggling to sell gas-fired facilities.
 
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Getting Real About Coal and Climate Opinion | Getting Real About Coal and Climate

Change is coming, whether we seek it or not.” So declares a remarkable document titled “Preserving Coal Country,” released Monday by the United Mine Workers of America, in which the union — which at its peak represented half a million workers — accepts the reality that coal isn’t coming back. Instead, it argues, the goal should be “a true energy transition that will enhance opportunities for miners, their families and their communities.”
The union’s document is in effect an endorsement, at least in principle, of the Biden administration’s plans to make action against climate change a centerpiece of its boost to infrastructure spending — something I guess we’re now supposed to call Build Back Better rather than the Green New Deal, but whatever. It’s also a small but encouraging vindication of the thinking behind Build Back Better, the belief that climate action is most likely to be politically feasible if it eschews economic purism and relies more on carrots than on sticks.
 
Related to Tesla, here’s a CleanTechnica article with a Solving The Money Problem video. Awesome 4D move by Tesla to take over the electrical infrastructure with Solar & PowerWalls, thereby eventually eliminating the need for coal, nuclear or oil.
The 4D Chess Move Elon Musk & Tesla Just Made

Yet he won't allow V2G. Boo!

2 Tesla + Powerwalls totaling 150-200Kwh of stored energy would make self sufficiency possible today.
 
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Related to Tesla, here’s a CleanTechnica article with a Solving The Money Problem video. Awesome 4D move by Tesla to take over the electrical infrastructure with Solar & PowerWalls, thereby eventually eliminating the need for coal, nuclear or oil.
The 4D Chess Move Elon Musk & Tesla Just Made

BTW, this will definitely help us get closer to...

 
Electric Power Monthly!

April for capacity changes and generation February 2021.

Coal generation jumped significantly in February, with coal generation being the highest for February since 2016. February 2021's cold weather was a large contrast with mild February 2020, with the two months indicating extremes for mild and cold weather.

With the large rebound in coal generation, and a weak month for wind power, rolling coal generation is again above utility-scale renewable generation. Through 2021 However, the underlying trend is still a decrease in coal generation capacity, and the question is when we'll see the numbers cross over again.

Coal capacity increased by 211.5MW in February 2021, to 216,858.8MW. Forecast capacity reductions increased by -4.0MW to -5,033.4MW.

Coal's rolling 12 month share increased by 0.74% to 20.20%%, a drop of 1.63% from 12 months ago. Coal was 48.21% of generation in 2008. February 2021 generation was 87.8TWh compared to 56.1TWh in 2020, and rolling 12 month generation 822.2TWh compared to 905.3TWh a year ago.

Nuclear capacity was down 2.6MW in February 2021, at 96,434.9MW. Planned capacity reductions increased by -2.6MW to -4,033.3MW.

Nuclear generation was down in February 2021 (63.0TWh v 66.0TWh), with rolling generation at 784.6TWh compared with 811.1TWh to February 2020.

Coal generation in February has become one of the higher months, as generation has declined overall. but not the highest, so February's relatively large number, higher than all but 1 month since August 2019, is noteworthy.

Rolling 12 month coal generation is still 83.1TWh down compared to 12 months ago, but the gap has narrowed with the much colder winter, and should continue to narrow. as the COVID effect disappears from generation. Rolling coal generation is now again clearly higher than nuclear. With nuclear generation capacity forecast reductions 80% of those of coal, but with much higher capacity factor, coal generation should remain above nuclear.

Coal generation capacity factors rose to 60.3%, up from 36.4% in February 2021, and higher than any recent February.

Coal's rolling capacity factor is now 43.2%, compared to 44.9% a year ago.

Coal and Nuclear

Coal:

Capacity (MW):
PeriodPriorChangeNewChange
Month216,647.3211.5216,858.80.10%
YTD218,424.0-1,565.2216,858.8-0.72%
Rolling225,573.7-8,714.9216,858.8-3.86%
Plan +12mo-4,817.9-4.0-5,033.4-2.32%

Capacity Factor (MW):
ValuePriorChangeNewChange
Month Capacity227,178.5-10,319.7216,858.8-4.54%
Month Factor36.4%24.3%60.7%66.76%
Rolling 12mo Factor44.9%-1.7%43.2%-3.75%

Generation (GWh):
YearMonthYTDRollingMonth %YTD%Rolling
202056,057121,214905,33717.54%18.26%21.83%
202187,848169,654822,24526.62%24.82%20.20%
Difference31,79148,440-83,0929.08%6.56%-1.63%

Nuclear:

Capacity (MW):
PeriodPriorChangeNewChange
Month96,437.5-2.696,434.90.00%
YTD96,554.8-119.996,434.9-0.12%
Rolling98,127.7-1,692.896,434.9-1.73%
Plan +12mo-4,033.3-2.6-4,033.3-4.18%

Capacity Factor (MW):
ValuePriorChangeNewChange
Month Capacity98,119.0-1,684.196,434.9-1.72%
Month Factor96.6%0.5%97.1%0.52%
Rolling 12mo Factor93.6%-1.1%92.4%-1.23%

Generation (GWh):
YearMonthYTDRollingMonth %YTD%Rolling
202065,950140,120811,11420.64%21.11%19.55%
202162,954134,787784,58519.08%19.72%19.27%
Difference-2,996-5,333-26,529-1.56%-1.39%-0.28%
 

Something remarkable happened over the weekend: California hit nearly 95% renewable energy. I’ll say it again: 95% renewables. For all the time we spend talking about how to reach 100% clean power, it sometimes seems like a faraway proposition, whether the timeframe is California’s 2045 target or President Biden’s more aggressive 2035 goal. But on Saturday just before 2:30 p.m., one of the world’s largest economies came within a stone’s throw of getting thereSomething remarkable happened over the weekend: California hit nearly 95% renewable energy. I’ll say it again: 95% renewables. For all the time we spend talking about how to reach 100% clean power, it sometimes seems like a faraway proposition, whether the timeframe is California’s 2045 target or President Biden’s more aggressive 2035 goal. But on Saturday just before 2:30 p.m., one of the world’s largest economies came within a stone’s throw of getting there
I’ve avoided writing too much about the Western EIM (acronym alert!) because it gets very wonky, very fast. But it’s absolutely worth knowing about. It’s a unique program that makes it easier for utility companies across the American West to share extra electricity, with a goal of saving money for ratepayers (i.e. you and me) and reducing planet-warming emissions. How does it work? As I explained in a 2017 deep dive for the Desert Sun, the program allows out-of-state utilities to participate in California’s real-time electricity market, where they can buy power to fill in last-minute gaps between supply and demand.I’ve avoided writing too much about the Western EIM (acronym alert!) because it gets very wonky, very fast. But it’s absolutely worth knowing about. It’s a unique program that makes it easier for utility companies across the American West to share extra electricity, with a goal of saving money for ratepayers (i.e. you and me) and reducing planet-warming emissions. How does it work? As I explained in a 2017 deep dive for the Desert Sun, the program allows out-of-state utilities to participate in California’s real-time electricity market, where they can buy power to fill in last-minute gaps between supply and demand.
The program is growing so fast in part because of the measurable economic benefits. Through the end of 2020, participants collectively saved nearly $1.2 billion. Mainzer told me another $101 million in savings accrued in the first quarter of this year.