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cantdecide
Member
RationalOptimist
Member
145K
55k S
45k X
45k 3
S and X already at world-beating demand levels for their category. Unrealistic to expect too much more, esp with 3 coming, though the growing evidence of AP2 amazingness will certainly help. A key question in thinking about model 3 sales is... which quarter does Tesla hit the 200k sales number in US (because, under the rules, every car produced that quarter AND the following quarter still qualifies for the federal credit). Ideally they will want to hit this when they KNOW they can really crank out model 3s the following quarter. And ideally they will want to do this early on in a quarter, so that they can have five and a half months of full-on production right after that landmark achieved.
According to InsideEVs cumulative Tesla sales through 2016 are about 110k. Excluding 3, by end of 2017 we'll be at about 150k (assuming 40% of total sales are US). The company is hoping to manufacture 30k/month of model 3 by the time they're fully cranking in 2018. I can just about see them launching around September and averaging 15k/month in Q4. If most of that production is US, that would mean Tesla ends 2017 at about 190k cum US deliveries... primed to cross the 200k mid January 18, and then crank to the skies to work through the huge US order backlog. That way maybe an additional 100k owners can benefit from the credit.
So... in addition to my prediction above, I'll go with the following for 2018.
50k S
50K X
300K 3
total 400K
Add in batteries and solar roofs, and 2018 could be one of the most dramatic years in a company's history ever.
55k S
45k X
45k 3
S and X already at world-beating demand levels for their category. Unrealistic to expect too much more, esp with 3 coming, though the growing evidence of AP2 amazingness will certainly help. A key question in thinking about model 3 sales is... which quarter does Tesla hit the 200k sales number in US (because, under the rules, every car produced that quarter AND the following quarter still qualifies for the federal credit). Ideally they will want to hit this when they KNOW they can really crank out model 3s the following quarter. And ideally they will want to do this early on in a quarter, so that they can have five and a half months of full-on production right after that landmark achieved.
According to InsideEVs cumulative Tesla sales through 2016 are about 110k. Excluding 3, by end of 2017 we'll be at about 150k (assuming 40% of total sales are US). The company is hoping to manufacture 30k/month of model 3 by the time they're fully cranking in 2018. I can just about see them launching around September and averaging 15k/month in Q4. If most of that production is US, that would mean Tesla ends 2017 at about 190k cum US deliveries... primed to cross the 200k mid January 18, and then crank to the skies to work through the huge US order backlog. That way maybe an additional 100k owners can benefit from the credit.
So... in addition to my prediction above, I'll go with the following for 2018.
50k S
50K X
300K 3
total 400K
Add in batteries and solar roofs, and 2018 could be one of the most dramatic years in a company's history ever.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I'm expecting more Model 3 pre-orders to switch to Model S orders as the Model 3 gets delayed, and excitement over AP2 to really start to happen after the June/July time period.
105,100 Total
60K Model S
45K Model X
100 Model 3
As an aside I expect the Model X to generate around 1000 camper sales for various mfg's.
105,100 Total
60K Model S
45K Model X
100 Model 3
As an aside I expect the Model X to generate around 1000 camper sales for various mfg's.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
My prediction is 180k, broken up 60/60/60.
60k S
60k X
(X overtakes S sometime mid-year due to SUV's being a larger market, at least in the US; overall for the year, the 2 are pretty closely in balance, and together show roughly 50% YoY growth)
60k 3
Meanwhile, Model 3 needs to not just deliver, but also ramp to pretty high production numbers, to setup 2018 for 500k cars.
Therefore, 60k Model 3 with some Q3 deliveries in trivial numbers, and some fast ramping numbers in late Q3 and all of Q4. Model 3 needs to be closer to 30k/month in 2018 to make it to 500k cars. The similar deliveries to S/X is pure dumb luck as Model 3 (and a derivative?) is ramping rapidly to 500k/year and on to 1M/year.
I'm more confident of these numbers as production numbers than delivery numbers (could be off due to a large number of 3's being produced but not delivered until early Jan 18), but that's a miss I can live with.
Also note that even growing a little over 2x in 2017 in cars delivered, TSLA will still need to nearly TRIPLE in 2018 to make 500k. Talk about reckless growth! And counts Solar City, solar roofs, Tesla Energy as 0 (this being car delivery prediction). Yeah - I'm taking the over on those 3
60k S
60k X
(X overtakes S sometime mid-year due to SUV's being a larger market, at least in the US; overall for the year, the 2 are pretty closely in balance, and together show roughly 50% YoY growth)
60k 3
Meanwhile, Model 3 needs to not just deliver, but also ramp to pretty high production numbers, to setup 2018 for 500k cars.
Therefore, 60k Model 3 with some Q3 deliveries in trivial numbers, and some fast ramping numbers in late Q3 and all of Q4. Model 3 needs to be closer to 30k/month in 2018 to make it to 500k cars. The similar deliveries to S/X is pure dumb luck as Model 3 (and a derivative?) is ramping rapidly to 500k/year and on to 1M/year.
I'm more confident of these numbers as production numbers than delivery numbers (could be off due to a large number of 3's being produced but not delivered until early Jan 18), but that's a miss I can live with.
Also note that even growing a little over 2x in 2017 in cars delivered, TSLA will still need to nearly TRIPLE in 2018 to make 500k. Talk about reckless growth! And counts Solar City, solar roofs, Tesla Energy as 0 (this being car delivery prediction). Yeah - I'm taking the over on those 3
OK, I get what you're saying. I think you're wrong, but I agree, I misinterpreted what you wrote.
WAG:
52,000 Model S
43,000 Model X
103,525 Model 3
I think my 3 reservation is around that number. I'm hoping to get in under the wire for 2017. So a lot of wishful thinking involved in that Model 3 production number. And a big hope there are any tax credits still available to go with my 3.
52,000 Model S
43,000 Model X
103,525 Model 3
I think my 3 reservation is around that number. I'm hoping to get in under the wire for 2017. So a lot of wishful thinking involved in that Model 3 production number. And a big hope there are any tax credits still available to go with my 3.
2017:
S: 51,799 (2015-50,372, 2016-50,931)
3: 16,600
X: 28,450 (2015-214, 2016-25,219)
Y: press-conferenced
Total: 96,849 with 65% of the total in North America due to M3 and ForEx.
non-P 100kWh due out soon in H1
Possibilities:
A possible ~50kWh range MS as test-bed for M3 pack.
New battery pack based on 2170 for all cars during H2 2017.
Generally, any change coming can impact current rate of orders.
Currently the MX order rate seems to have slowed and buyers could be waiting on non-P 100kWh availability.
S: 51,799 (2015-50,372, 2016-50,931)
3: 16,600
X: 28,450 (2015-214, 2016-25,219)
Y: press-conferenced
Total: 96,849 with 65% of the total in North America due to M3 and ForEx.
non-P 100kWh due out soon in H1
Possibilities:
A possible ~50kWh range MS as test-bed for M3 pack.
New battery pack based on 2170 for all cars during H2 2017.
Generally, any change coming can impact current rate of orders.
Currently the MX order rate seems to have slowed and buyers could be waiting on non-P 100kWh availability.
Last edited:
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