So you expect MX demand to fall by 25% in 2017 from what it has been in H2 2016 (~9,100/quarter)?
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So you expect MX demand to fall by 25% in 2017 from what it has been in H2 2016 (~9,100/quarter)?
MX seems to be slowing. Based the last couple month's vin # issuance trending. That foretells future production and deliveries. non-P 100kWh could turn that around as many have said they want that over the P model. Everyone should put in their orders for their MX "for the wife" (I hate that phrase) or whomever they are buying it for.
They can also bring back the 60 kWh pack. And do you not expect the 100D early in the year? I remember for 2016 you said you didn't anticipate the "demand levers" they pulled during the year. It seems like you are doing the same thing again here with MX. I don't think your MS and M3 are unreasonable.
Yes, it is in my post. They pulled a lot of demand levers - including a bunch of financial incentives. Those are meant to "fix" a slowing marketplace. But however, how do resale values look in mid-late 2018? when thousands of 2-year leases are sent back for CPO or wholesale re-sale? Those levers are not sustainable in larger-scale.
MS should sustain and maybe 100kWh can bring in more mid-level buyers on MS/MX. I may be slightly low on MX total sales but not by much. My "horrible" guess for 2016 was really only ~10-15% low (in a year plug-in sales in the USA were up 35%) and I got "2nd place" in 2015 and won the 2014 contest here. I'm not a "bear" but realist. "talk" is magic but delivery is real. It's one reason that guidance is typically higher than delivery - as Musk said, it's not to be reached but rather a level to aspire to.
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But your logic conflicts. You speculate that demand is slow because people are waiting for 100D. But if that is imminent, what is the problem?
Ok - added 1000 to MX number. There is possibility that MX becomes "hot" in China and more go there. But not 10's of thousands hot.
Timely bit: Elon Musk Has Delivery Issues
I just found this on page 2 of my private data (I privately predicted 22,200 in sales but noted around 22,400 on the TMC thread)
MS MX Total Diff
Prediction Q3 13400 9200 22600 -1900 low on MS, high on MX
Actual Q3 15800 8700 24500
Prediction Q4 14500 7700 22200
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T3slaTulips
Member
133,000 Total.
55k Model S.
33k Model 3.
45k Model X.
I hope my guess ends up low on all three fronts and way low on Model 3. I did list them in the proper order though.
55k Model S.
33k Model 3.
45k Model X.
I hope my guess ends up low on all three fronts and way low on Model 3. I did list them in the proper order though.
graphix25
-=electronboy=-
Fail, fail and fail. Trifecta of failure. I think it's fair to say I was a weebit overly optimistic.
I was?! I don't even remember what I guessed. Let me go back and see what it was.
Oops. Much as I'd love to take the credit. My guess was actually way off.
My guess for Model 3's alone was closest to the real number. You add all three of my numbers together and I am way...way off.
I was?! I don't even remember what I guessed. Let me go back and see what it was.
Oops. Much as I'd love to take the credit. My guess was actually way off.
Sorry, I should have made a list to check through. Anyway - yes, Thora appears to be the winner and my eyesight is going bad...
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