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Prediction competition for 2014

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Larken, Jan 16, 2014.

  1. Larken

    Larken Member

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    #1 Larken, Jan 16, 2014
    Last edited: May 5, 2014
    I had a little idea today about making a guessing competition for total delivered cars for 2014. Everyone is allowed to cast their vote up and until 1 week after the 2013 Q4 ER and then we close this thread or compile a list of everyones guess. That means everyone can listen to Elon in a few weeks and is able to calculate,extrapolate and guess based on the guidance he gives for 2014. Next year, at the Q4 ER we will see who was closest. Maybe we can even have a little price, besides the great honor, like a TMC t-shirt or whatever :smile:

    My guess: 44,500

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Alright ladies and gentlemen, here is a compilation of everyones vote. We'll get the answer in the Q1 ER next February. Good luck everyone!
    I will start with the lowest guess.


    gg-got-a-tesla: 31,000

    bonaire: 31,669

    Discoducky: 33,333

    Robert.Boston: 33,675

    JJR64: 34,500

    GSP: 36,000

    clmason: 36,600

    Zaxxon: 36,721

    StapleGun: 37,850

    mrdoubleb: 38,000

    farzyness: 38,500

    chickensevil: 38,700

    SteveG3: 38,800

    PeterW: 39,150

    Clprenz: 40,000

    rrosenbl: 40,000

    gym7rjm: 40,123

    Warrenbonz: 40,123

    RationalOptimist: 40,309

    MikeC: 40,500

    DaveT: 41,234

    SebastianR: 42,000

    kenliles: 42,300

    Krugerrand: 42,350

    StephenM: 42,500

    Cattledog: 42,612

    Techmaven: 42,772

    Benz: 44,400

    Larken: 44,500

    TD1: 45,000

    TSLAopt: 45,600

    jdevo2004: 45,601

    vgrinshpun: 46,250

    austinEV: 47,000

    Jackl1956: 47,000

    sleepyhead: 48,300

    772: 50,772

    Rownolds: 50,773
     
  2. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

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    #2 DaveT, Jan 16, 2014
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2014
    41,234
     
  3. StapleGun

    StapleGun Member

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  4. TSLAopt

    TSLAopt Active Member

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  5. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

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    #5 techmaven, Jan 16, 2014
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2014
    36,720

    --edit--

    After ER, I'm revising my guess to:

    42772
     
  6. gg_got_a_tesla

    gg_got_a_tesla Model S: VIN P65513, Model 3 Res Holder

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  7. GSP

    GSP Member

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    1,998
    36,000
     
  8. jdevo2004

    jdevo2004 Member

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    Price is Right rules?

    45,601
     
  9. Discoducky

    Discoducky Active Member

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  10. StephenM

    StephenM Active Member

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  11. Krugerrand

    Krugerrand Active Member

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  12. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    No one waiting for Q4 ER?

    Ok, I'll go with 40,500. Exit Q4 with a run rate of ~1000/week.
     
  13. Larken

    Larken Member

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    I'm definately going to wait :) But people can change/edit their guesses up and until a week after the ER I suppose.
     
  14. 772

    772 Member

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    Hard for me to guess what production rates will look like after ramp up in H2, but I'll just go with 50,772 (avg a bit less than 1K/week)
     
  15. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Active Member

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  16. RationalOptimist

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    You're all fairly close. But the correct number is 40,309.
     
  17. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

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    Before I tell you all what the correct number is going to be, can I insert the restriction that this number is for Model Ss only?


    Just in case a certain X factor inserts itself...... ;)


    Or should we be more inclusive? ;) ;)
     
  18. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    #18 mrdoubleb, Jan 18, 2014
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2014
    So Workingdays.us says there will be 251 work days in California this year. We do not know what the exact output is right now, but they are ramping towards 800/week by the end of the year.

    So the conservative estimate would be 700 per week / 5 days = 140 per day * 251 = 35k. But they like to over deliver so I would say 38,000 deliveries this year (plus 20-50 Model Xs just for the bragging rights).
     
  19. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    I am going to guess they average 700/week Q1, 800/week Q2 (and announce that at Q3 earnings call), 900/week Q3, 1,000/week Q4. Throw a dozen Model Xs into Q4. Take a week off Q1 and Q3, you get 8,400 + 10,400 + 10,800 + 13,000 + 12 = 42,612.

    And they'll come out with a Lithium Margarita that will be the rage drink this summer.
     
  20. Rownolds

    Rownolds High Mileage Member

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    With apologies to 772 (I want to WIN), my guess is 50,773
    {And don't no one squeeze me with a guess of 50,774!}
     

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