Prediction competition for 2014

[TSLAopt]

Price is Right rules?

45,601

haha

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With apologies to 772 (I want to WIN), my guess is 50,773
{And don't no one squeeze me with a guess of 50,774!}

We're all big dreamers here setting high hopes...if any of us really EXPECT over 40k in reality then I think we could really get dissappointed on that number. I just am hoping media and analysts aren't monitoring this board thinking we're "experts" and going with our estimates like they did with the infamous "VIN analysis" thread on the Tesla Motors forum.

We need TFTF and Bonaire and the likes to throw in their 25k estimates to balance this out, otherwise I think this thread could become counterproductive to expectations and the stock price potentially (ie. if media and analysts are taking our guesses as expert analysis somehow)

 

[Robert.Boston]

33,675 (although I reserve the right to change after the earnings call!)

This is 50 weeks of production, starting at 600/week ramping up to 750/week at year's end. The two weeks off are for holidays and factory maintenance.

 

[Larken]

haha

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We're all big dreamers here setting high hopes...if any of us really EXPECT over 40k in reality then I think we could really get dissappointed on that number. I just am hoping media and analysts aren't monitoring this board thinking we're "experts" and going with our estimates like they did with the infamous "VIN analysis" thread on the Tesla Motors forum.

We need TFTF and Bonaire and the likes to throw in their 25k estimates to balance this out, otherwise I think this thread could become counterproductive to expectations and the stock price potentially (ie. if media and analysts are taking our guesses as expert analysis somehow)

I understand your concern and it crossed my mind too. That's why, as I wrote in the beginning, said that we'll close this thread 1 week after the ER so there won't be more speculation. And anyway, I'm sure there's gonna be many more threads and discussion about delivers as the year progesses and that the estimations we're doing now for fun will be of no interest to the media.

 

[sleepyhead]

48,300

 

[Zaxxon]

36,721 s, 12 x.

 

[techmaven]

36,721.

I see what you did there.

 

[772]

With apologies to 772 (I want to WIN), my guess is 50,773
{And don't no one squeeze me with a guess of 50,774!}

You don't need to apologize... I have the correct number :wink:

 

[Zaxxon]

I see what you did there.

Bob Barker made me.

 

[Krugerrand]

For you PiR fans...remember, it's highest bid without going over the actual number. So, one of you is going to have to bid 1 car.

 

[mrdoubleb]

48,300

Hmm... That's interesting. Maybe I was a bit too rationall with my 38k prediction.

Why do you think it will be 48k Sleepy? Elon said they want to ramp to 800 cars per week by the end of the year. That's 160 per day. Even if they were at that output for the whole year, that's 40k for 2014.

Do you think they have lowballed that number to that extent? 48k means an almost 1k average per week for the entire year, whie the q4 number tells us they closed out 2013 with just a little over 600.

 

[woof]

Interesting to see guesses that aren't rounded to the nearest thousand. No way Tesla is going to report the exact number, if they announce anything at all it'll be something like "Over X thousand" each quarter, and they won't total it for you in the end. So the "official" number will be the sum of 4 rounded down numbers.

 

[bonaire]

31,634 MS
35 MX

My biggest beef is with analysts calling for "doubling" in 2014 over 2013. That will mess up valuation until you get at least two more quarters in. If Q1 is under 7500, then it makes the next three quarters harder to attain this "double". The mis-quote of 800/wk for an assumed "all-year" production cycle is out on the street now. It was Musk who said "by end of 2014".

This thread is quite good since many analysts could read it and make estimates based on "Tesla experts".

RW Baird said 30,000-33,000 but also gave an upgrade. That is a good call.

 

[clmason]

My entry: 36,600

 

[Benz]

Tesla Model S: 44,000 and Tesla Model X: 400.

Total delivered cars in 2014: 44,400.

I might want to change these figures within a week after the announcement of the Q4 2013 Earnings Report and Conference Call (somewhere in February 2014).

 

[JJR64]

34,500

 

[farzyness]

38,500

 

[Benz]

Tesla Model S: 44,000 and Tesla Model X: 400.

Total delivered cars in 2014: 44,400.

I might want to change these figures within a week after the announcement of the Q4 2013 Earnings Report and Conference Call (somewhere in February 2014).

For 2015 my prediction for the combined total deliveries of Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X would be: 80,000+.
For 2016 my prediction for the combined total deliveries of Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X would be: 120,000+.
For 2017 my prediction for the combined total deliveries of Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X would be: 160,000+ (and the Tesla Model E is not even included in this total).

 

[Clprenz]

Expect: 38k
Actual: 40k
Hope: 42k

 

[Discoducky]

33,333

Due to the low price of Model S in China I'm thinking TM will shoot for 1000/week by Q4 and deliver 40000 cars.

I still can't believe how low TM has priced the S in China. I'm currently in the 'denial' phase and think the price will go up once TM realizes costs in delivery are higher than anticipated. But hope it won't since it is so cool!

 

[TD1]

Elon likes to lowball with good numbers: like suggesting they will make around 35k in 2014.
He knows exactly that each Qx report in the 2014 that slightly beats the expectations is rewarded over proportionally in the stock price.

My guess is 45k, I expect Elon to announce that "Demand is much higher than expected" which leads to more positive news (Elon is a marketing genius)
And its really much easier than people think, Fremont is running on only two shifts right now. So adding a third shift for a few quarters will give make it possible to achieve that kind of production rate.