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Prediction Competition for 2015

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Larken, Dec 28, 2014.

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  1. Larken

    Larken Member

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    #1 Larken, Dec 28, 2014
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 12, 2015
    It seems like there is some interest for guessing the delivieries for the coming year, so I'm creating a new prediction competition thread for 2015.

    The competition is about guessing how many vehicles Tesla Motors will deliver in 2015. The rules are that a vote is allowed to be cast and/or modified up and until 1 week after the Q4 ER, which is around the middle of February. This is to give everyone a chance to make a guess based on Teslas guidance. I think that worked out well last time based on how hard it turned out to be to predict the results accurately, most of us were way off.
    As far as first price goes, it is the honor of victory and being named The Oracle of TMC!

    So without further ado, let the voting begin!

    Edit 1: Let's only guess total delivered cars and not the share price of TSLA.

    Edit 2: No need to segregate model S and X from your guess, just make one guess that includes any vehicle Tesla might deliver.
    ------------------------
    Final Entries for 2015 Predictions:
    So, here is the complete and final voting list sorted from lowest to higest vote. Best of luck to all!

    toto_48313: 44,444

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney: 45,000

    schonelucht: 47,000

    bonaire: 47,690

    Lump: 51,888

    maoing: 52,800

    RobStark: 54,985

    Benz: 55,000

    Crowded Mind: 55,000

    dalalsid: 55,001

    hershey101: 55,170

    Robert.Boston: 55,825

    pGo: 56,000

    pz1975: 56,300

    SteveG3: 56,315

    mrdoubleb: 57,000

    ev-enthusiast: 57,200

    StapleGun: 57,221

    32no: 57,434

    sandpiper: 57,442

    NannerAirCraft: 57,753

    Larken: 58,367

    Gerasimental: 58,500

    uselesslogin: 59,000

    Svetlin: 59,100

    Papafox: 59,775

    mibaro2: 59,827

    chickensevil: 60,000

    AudubonB: 60,000

    Marknyuzz: 60,500

    Gerardf: 61,150

    erha: 62,212

    GenIIIBuyer: 63,999

    Perfectlogic: 64,200

    dmckinstry: 65,536

    Johan: 67,000

    tomas: 69,000

    CGH-ON: 73,650

    Familial Rhino: 74,293

     
  2. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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  3. Perfectlogic

    Perfectlogic Member

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    #3 Perfectlogic, Dec 29, 2014
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2014
    I would say the 50k Model S guidance is setting the bar super low, as Elon has mentioned himself too as they are at a 1k/week rate already. My guess is 55-60k Model S and 5-10k Model X, for a total of 64200 cars sold.

    As for the share price my guess is $345.
     
  4. Larken

    Larken Member

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    I suggest we only guess the amount of delivered cars and not share price, as the latter may contribute to exuberance and speculation which in turn could come back to bite us.
     
  5. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    47 000 based on the expectation that they will deliver almost no model X's in 2015.
     
  6. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Enthusiast

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    Lol will we be super conservative after a disappointing year? 67,500 for me. Anything under 50k implies a demand constraint.
     
  7. pz1975

    pz1975 Member

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  8. hershey101

    hershey101 Member

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    Total deliveries will be 55,170. :)
     
  9. maoing

    maoing Active Member

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    Assume 2014 delivery 33000, I would expect 50% increase due to S and 10% increase due to X, so 33000*160%=52800.
     
  10. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Enthusiast

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    Wow, why so many estimates <60k? They are currently producing 1,000 cars/wk so just ramping up to 1,500 cars/wk gradually over the year gets them to 60k. We have been guided to expect an exit at 2,000 cars/wk. I don't see <60k unless Tesla turns out to be demand constrained. Is this just because we estimated too high last year?
     
  11. maoing

    maoing Active Member

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    I was expecting 40K in 2014 because I think 35K guidanc was very conservative from TM based on the growth trajetory from 2013, but it turns out the real delivery well below 35K now and I got hit hard for my leap position . So lowering your expection is the conservative way to save your investment. Who knows if there will have another assembly line expansion issue, model X further delay or even demand might have issue in 2015.

     
  12. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    67000
    (of which 11000 Model X, of which 1500 in Europe - i.e. including mine :) )
     
  13. Crowded Mind

    Crowded Mind Member

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    I think it would be fun to put a share price estimate as well, just so we can all laugh at how wrong we were.

    My placeholder guesses are 55,000 and $300.
     
  14. Gerasimental

    Gerasimental Member

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    Feeling bullish. 62500 deliveries for me.

    Expansion into relatively young markets allows for some potential weakening of demand in the US.
    On the supply side I agree with others here that a current rate of 1k cars/week now and predicted to exit 2015 at 2k cars/week suggests that 60k for the year should easily be possible even accounting for slowdown while the factory is configured to build S & X and during potential upgrades like the one last month.
     
  15. 32no

    32no Member

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  16. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    I'm waiting until the Q4 ER until I put my chip on the table.
     
  17. tomas

    tomas Traded in 9 rep bars for M3, used to be somebody!

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    69,000. And who will win NFC North? Da Bears!!!!
     
  18. StapleGun

    StapleGun Member

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  19. toto_48313

    toto_48313 CAN P #5

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  20. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    +1
    It's clear Model S deliveries alone are likely to surpass 50k this year, but the actual start of X high volume production is the real guess here. If they srart production in June and ramp to full volume production by September, that's totally different from starting up in late August and ramping in late q4. We need more data to make an educated guess.
     
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