To be clear I am only putting down a number now because the rules state I may adjust that number up to one week following the Q4 ER. I expect to revise it based on that call.
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The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
chickensevil
Active Member
I think he is just too scared to even think of a number until we hear something from Tesla
(Just yanking your chain Robert, I love ya all the same!)I am still running under the impression that with the ramp to 2k and Model X release and comments previously given by elon that we will see a 70k number. Call me crazy, but outside of something drastic during the Q4 ER I am going to go with the current highest bet of 70,000 of which I am expecting there to be a solid 10-15k Model X deliveries. Might be dreaming a little too high on the Model X, which is the great unknown right now. So that is likely to be the number I would change the most after the ER. Anything less than 55k Model S and I will be a sad panda.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
CHG-ON
Still in love after all these miles
As of yesterday's close at 222.23, we're up 47.73% YTD. Hard to believe, given the roller-coaster ride that's gotten us here. So I'll predict that TSLA closes next year with the same gain, at 328.30. If I had to guess today about 2015 deliveries, my model says 60,260.
My guess is 45k.
It's a tough call because they have a bunch of things that could affect sales, but I don't expect early execution on them, and especially with a further delay and initial production issues with Model X will mean they'll not get the growth they expected, so a big bump will be delayed until 2016.
It's a tough call because they have a bunch of things that could affect sales, but I don't expect early execution on them, and especially with a further delay and initial production issues with Model X will mean they'll not get the growth they expected, so a big bump will be delayed until 2016.
I think that Tesla has just passed another "valley of the death" in Q3. Those are the factory shutdown, and intro to Dual-motor variant and improved interior of Model S such as recaro seat and heated steering wheel. These new tooling and product variant caused slowdown in production. So ask yourself this: in 2015, will there be another product variant for Model S introduced? will there be another factory/production line retooling?
In Q1, apart from refitting the recaro seat, I think Tesla will fire full speed ahead.
In Q2, there will be no new product variant introduced, other than the snake solid auto home chargers + autopilot firmware upgrade. So full speed ahead.
In Q3, I think there might be factory retooling for the state-of-the-art body paint shop upgrade, and some other upgrade, per Q2-14 conference call. This could cause 2-4 weeks shutdown. Model X might also start production in Q3 perhaps in small amount ~2500-3000 cars. This Qtr might cause hiccup.
In Q4, Model X ramps up or not depending on execution.
I think in FY15 there will be only 46 weeks of production due to body paint shop upgrade. If we enter 2015 with 1100 cars/wk, and end it with 2000 cars/wk, taking the mid 1,550 cars/wk minus 10% execution error = 1,400 x 46 = ~64,500 cars produced - 1500 cars going to loaners/showroom - last 2000-3000 going to pipeline for overseas next Qtr, then I am guesstimating 60,500 cars delivered for 2015.
In Q1, apart from refitting the recaro seat, I think Tesla will fire full speed ahead.
In Q2, there will be no new product variant introduced, other than the snake solid auto home chargers + autopilot firmware upgrade. So full speed ahead.
In Q3, I think there might be factory retooling for the state-of-the-art body paint shop upgrade, and some other upgrade, per Q2-14 conference call. This could cause 2-4 weeks shutdown. Model X might also start production in Q3 perhaps in small amount ~2500-3000 cars. This Qtr might cause hiccup.
In Q4, Model X ramps up or not depending on execution.
I think in FY15 there will be only 46 weeks of production due to body paint shop upgrade. If we enter 2015 with 1100 cars/wk, and end it with 2000 cars/wk, taking the mid 1,550 cars/wk minus 10% execution error = 1,400 x 46 = ~64,500 cars produced - 1500 cars going to loaners/showroom - last 2000-3000 going to pipeline for overseas next Qtr, then I am guesstimating 60,500 cars delivered for 2015.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
My assumtions in the context of 2015 deliveries are as follows:
- Freemont production running at full steam for 52 weeks (two weeks for holiday and two weeks for line changes (new robots for Model S and phase in of Model X production))
- Average weekly production rate of about 1100 vehicles (EVs, that means Model S and Model X combined) per week at beginning of 2015
- Production ramp up might be quicker during H1 (P85D issues already sorted out and just cranking out Model S as fast as they can)
- Production ramp up might be slower during H2 (introduction of Model X, quality checks of manufacturing, collecting feedback from first real customers (as EM mentioned making one instance of a complex object is difficult while manufacturing a big amount of things of the same and good quality is extremly more difficult))
Based on my assumptions my estimate for 2015 deliveries is 52weeks x 1100vehicles/week = 57200 vehicles (there might be some upside).
- Freemont production running at full steam for 52 weeks (two weeks for holiday and two weeks for line changes (new robots for Model S and phase in of Model X production))
- Average weekly production rate of about 1100 vehicles (EVs, that means Model S and Model X combined) per week at beginning of 2015
- Production ramp up might be quicker during H1 (P85D issues already sorted out and just cranking out Model S as fast as they can)
- Production ramp up might be slower during H2 (introduction of Model X, quality checks of manufacturing, collecting feedback from first real customers (as EM mentioned making one instance of a complex object is difficult while manufacturing a big amount of things of the same and good quality is extremly more difficult))
Based on my assumptions my estimate for 2015 deliveries is 52weeks x 1100vehicles/week = 57200 vehicles (there might be some upside).
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Benz
Active Member
Tesla Model S deliveries in 2015: 47,500
Tesla Model X deliveries in 2015: 7,500
Total deliveries in 2015: 55,000
Tesla Model X deliveries in 2015: 7,500
Total deliveries in 2015: 55,000
chickensevil
Active Member
I think he is just too scared to even think of a number until we hear something from Tesla
I am still running under the impression that with the ramp to 2k and Model X release and comments previously given by elon that we will see a 70k number. Call me crazy, but outside of something drastic during the Q4 ER I am going to go with the current highest bet of 70,000 of which I am expecting there to be a solid 10-15k Model X deliveries. Might be dreaming a little too high on the Model X, which is the great unknown right now. So that is likely to be the number I would change the most after the ER. Anything less than 55k Model S and I will be a sad panda.
Hrmmm, well, after the shareholder letter, I guess I will revise south to 60,000 deliveries. I am still optimistic that they will do more than they say they will as I really feel like 55k is a sandbagged number just so they don't have a repeat of this year.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Sticking with the first guestimate of the thread.
As for Edit question number #2 TSLA ends the year at $298
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