Prediction Competition for 2015

[woof]

Based on a one off story by a Rupert Murdock paper you are assigning 55k to the dustbin of history awfully quickly. Almost gleefully.

With glee to reinforce his original 100% certainty that Q2 delivers would not be 10k, but perhaps only 9k.

And here we have a perfect example of the echo chamber and conformation bias that is TMC at times.

Yes, the WSJ was the link, but the number was from Musk and the original source was an interview last week with Japanese news agency Nikkei.

Does this number constitute lowered guidance? I don't know. But don't discount it just because the WSJ reports it.

 

[vgrinshpun]

And here we have a perfect example of the echo chamber and conformation bias that is TMC at times.

Yes, the WSJ was the link, but the number was from Musk and the original source was an interview last week with Japanese news agency Nikkei.

Does this number constitute lowered guidance? I don't know. But don't discount it just because the WSJ reports it.

There are actually **two** echo chambers with confirmation bias as evidenced by the posts on previous page of the thread - one negative, and another positive. What I personally find strange is that one can spend very little time to find facts disputing the conclusion drawn by the author of the WSJ article, who clearly quoted out of the context and distorted what EM actually said.

EM was responding to a question about impact of the Model 3 as a more mass market car, rather then exclusive Model S. The response included characterization of the Model 3 as being bench-marked against Audi A4 and BMW 3-series. Then Musk went on to suggest and explain that in-spite of it's exclusivity, Model S still will do well in Japan. Nowhere in his response EM talks/suggests anything about Model X or total 2015 deliveries, he concentrates**only** on Model S, so his projection of little more than 50,000 delivered cars is regarding Model S, not a total deliveries in 2015.

The numbers quoted out of context by WSJ actually indicate EM expectation for sales of Model S only. The victory lap regarding the predictions is totally premature.

Here is EM exchange with the reporter in it's entirety, taken from the Nikkei Asian Review:

Q: Can the Model 3 have a big impact on the Japanese market, where the average car still dominates?A: I think the Model 3 is likely to have a big impact in every market. The Model S is a premium car. It's a very full-featured car. It's meant to be a technology leader, with things like advanced autopilot capability. It's in the class, in a way, of a Mercedes S-class or a BMW 7-series, as well as an Audi A8 or A7. The Model 3 is closer to an Audi A4 or BMW 3-series.

But I still think even the Model S is going to do fairly well in Japan. We are seeing steady growth in sales. We are planning to make a big investment in charging infrastructure as well as servicing capability throughout Japan. So you will be able to use the car anywhere in Japan.

We're making a strong long-term commitment to the Japanese market. We really believe in it. But we do think it's something that takes time to build. So, we have to have patience and grow it over time.
I do want to super-emphasize to potential customers that we are very committed, long term, to the market in Japan and making sure they have an amazing experience. We don't have supergrand ambitions. It's not like we expect to be, like, the leading seller or even remotely close to that.

If you look at our sales last year, worldwide, it was only about 32,000 cars. That was for the entire world. And this year, maybe, we'll be a little bit above 50,000 cars. So, we're only talking a few thousand cars here. It's not a huge number. The Model S will continue to be a very exclusive, special, car, but I do want to make sure people know that we are going to be absolutely supportive of any customers in Japan.

They shouldn't have such worries as, "Is there going to be support or charging capability?" We're going to make sure that we invest whatever it takes in order to have people in Japan have a great experience.

As for the charging infrastructure, we're also going to make sure that all of our charging stations are either directly or indirectly solar powered. We'll buy utility power that's coming from solar panels, or we'll have solar panels on the charge station itself. There will be no impact to the electrical grid in Japan. And the supercharging stations for Tesla are always free.

 

[jhm]

Thanks, Vladimir. It's amazing how the simple act of reading things in context can dispel ignorance.

 

[Lump]

If you look at our sales last year, worldwide, it was only about 32,000 cars. That was for the entire world. And this year, maybe, we'll be a little bit above 50,000 cars. So, we're only talking a few thousand cars here. It's not a huge number. The Model S will continue to be a very exclusive, special, car, but I do want to make sure people know that we are going to be absolutely supportive of any customers in Japan.

a. Elon forgot they have a major new product launch in the 2nd half so MX simply slipped his mind.
b. Elon lowered delivery numbers.
c. Must be out of context.

Maybe next year some of you will actually make a prediction that can be tracked.

 

[vgrinshpun]

a. Elon forgot they have a major new product launch in the 2nd half so MX simply slipped his mind.
b. Elon lowered delivery numbers.
c. Must be out of context.

Maybe next year some of you will actually make a prediction that can be tracked.

Shocking - there actually are people who have very hard time to admit that they might have been wrong...

 

[Krugerrand]

And here we have a perfect example of the echo chamber and conformation bias that is TMC at times.

Yes, the WSJ was the link, but the number was from Musk and the original source was an interview last week with Japanese news agency Nikkei.

Does this number constitute lowered guidance? I don't know. But don't discount it just because the WSJ reports it.

Let me provide the exact quote by Bonaire, which btw was a month ago:

Bonaire </user/1059525/comments>
Comments (503) </user/1059525/comments>| + Follow | Send Message

I can just about guarantee with 100% certainty that Q2 will not be 10,000 - perhaps only 9,000. Due to the way the Vin # assignments and backlog appear. I also think that the new CPO program is going to affect new-car sales in Q2.
6 Apr, 06:30 PM </article/3052956-tesla-shattering-the-lack-of-demand-myth>

 

[ecarfan]

vgrinshpun, thank you for posting that Interview with Elon. He continues to impress and amaze me with his unrelenting focus on his goals and his openness and honesty.

 

[Newb]

With glee to reinforce his original 100% certainty that Q2 delivers would not be 10k, but perhaps only 9k.

just because it's perfectly fitting to the conversation:

 

[bonaire]

Let me provide the exact quote by Bonaire, which btw was a month ago:

Bonaire </user/1059525/comments>
Comments (503) </user/1059525/comments>| + Follow | Send Message

I can just about guarantee with 100% certainty that Q2 will not be 10,000 - perhaps only 9,000. Due to the way the Vin # assignments and backlog appear. I also think that the new CPO program is going to affect new-car sales in Q2.
6 Apr, 06:30 PM </article/3052956-tesla-shattering-the-lack-of-demand-myth>

That was posted prior to the 70D reveal. Meaning - it was based on the Vin # tracking of the day. I would say Q2 is looking more like 10K to 10.5K now. There are reports of inventory cars in Europe from another thread here in the order of 600 cars. So, I believe some of the vin #s are going to demos/loaners/inventory and need to be sold eventually to on-the-spot buyers. With the 70D you now have a lot of interest and perhaps even a favoritism over 85 models (S85 and S85D) such that the 70D revenues per-car will be affecting the overall ASP in Q2 as well. It's just what the numbers say. Unless there are special avenues of car sales we don't know about, it's the same way to estimate as it was last year. The only changes are things like new model reveals like 70D and so on.

 

[Krugerrand]

That was posted prior to the 70D reveal. Meaning - it was based on the Vin # tracking of the day. I would say Q2 is looking more like 10K to 10.5K now. There are reports of inventory cars in Europe from another thread here in the order of 600 cars. So, I believe some of the vin #s are going to demos/loaners/inventory and need to be sold eventually to on-the-spot buyers. With the 70D you now have a lot of interest and perhaps even a favoritism over 85 models (S85 and S85D) such that the 70D revenues per-car will be affecting the overall ASP in Q2 as well. It's just what the numbers say. Unless there are special avenues of car sales we don't know about, it's the same way to estimate as it was last year. The only changes are things like new model reveals like 70D and so on.

Yeah, not buying your 'based on the Vin# tracking of the day'. If that were true, it wouldn't make sense to 'just about guarantee with 100% certainty' for Q2 sales, knowing full well that things can and do change like the wind at Tesla. I've read enough of your comments (in context) over the years to know exactly where you stand.

 

[30seconds]

I read the interview to be focused on the model S and Elon giving guidance on S units, not overall deliveries. But we will find out tomorrow if guidance is lowered or not.

 

[Auzie]

People are far less likely to participate in any discussion or, specifically to this thread, to offer their predictions, if they get personally singled out and attacked for having a particular view or for making a wrong prediction or call.

I would like to think that everyone is free to take a stand on this investment any way they wish and free to express it. Otherwise there is a risk of it becoming just an echo chamber, and less valuable to all of us.

 

[Larken]

People are far less likely to participate in any discussion or, specifically to this thread, to offer their predictions, if they get personally singled out and attacked for having a particular view or for making a wrong prediction or call.

I would like to think that everyone is free to take a stand on this investment any way they wish and free to express it. Otherwise there is a risk of it becoming just an echo chamber, and less valuable to all of us.

Well said. The intention of this thread was just for fun and ONLY for predictions until February. Seeing how it has turned out the last page I realized the thread should have been closed when all the voting was finished in February.

 

[kenliles]

People are far less likely to participate in any discussion or, specifically to this thread, to offer their predictions, if they get personally singled out and attacked for having a particular view or for making a wrong prediction or call.

I would like to think that everyone is free to take a stand on this investment any way they wish and free to express it. Otherwise there is a risk of it becoming just an echo chamber, and less valuable to all of us.

+100. Well said Auzie. Thanks

 

[bonaire]

Yeah, not buying your 'based on the Vin# tracking of the day'. If that were true, it wouldn't make sense to 'just about guarantee with 100% certainty' for Q2 sales, knowing full well that things can and do change like the wind at Tesla. I've read enough of your comments (in context) over the years to know exactly where you stand.

Followup based on the letter from today's earnings release:
"We plan to deliver 10,000 to 11,000 vehicles in Q2"

Just trying to play the game with reality here. This 1000 wide estimate on Q2 may lie in the 600 Netherlands pre-order before the price-change. Didn't I quote yesterday that I thought Q2 would be 10,000 to 10,500?

 

[RobStark]

Followup based on the letter from today's earnings release:
"We plan to deliver 10,000 to 11,000 vehicles in Q2"

Just trying to play the game with reality here. This 1000 wide estimate on Q2 may lie in the 600 Netherlands pre-order before the price-change. Didn't I quote yesterday that I thought Q2 would be 10,000 to 10,500?

But Tesla plans to produce 12,500 in the quarter. On target for 55k for the year.

 

[bonaire]

My prediction for 2015 still is zero-ing in on the sales number for the year. Anyone feel that the MX reveal (now done) and rollout is a little slow in terms of sales potential this year (breaking 50k)?

 

[bonaire]

(May 04 post) Reminds me of last year, however, they held steady at 35,000 during Q2 ER Q&A and then only dropped to 33,000 guidance during November's Q3 ER Q&A and surprised with total deliveries of 31,655.

I think they know they cannot hold a guidance number unless they have solid proof of being able to meet it. And are they using Adam Jonas as their "reality checker"?
For me, I went with a low guesstimate simply because past-history is a good indicator of future actions. I took the 55k, multiplied it by .90 and subtracted a few because other plugins like Leafs and Volts in the USA were not really starting the year off strong. Until pricing on the Model X is set and people start converting to booked reservations and not refundable reservations, it's hard to know what to expect in 2016. Revenues for 1000 cars is quite a bit - about $100M. I don't see the company doing that much revenue in stationary storage this entire calendar year. So, any guidance adjustment is actually a bit scary for the stock price.

Model S are really good cars - but they are selling to actual people out there in the real world and people can be tricky.

For those nay-sayers who said I was so-wrong back in early May with my post above, I just wanted to bring it up again. This week's stock price problems and downgrades are finally seeing a light that I could see well back into February of 2015 when I made my 2015 contest guess of 47,690. But I don't mind the mud-slinging. I have faith in my work.

- - - Updated - - -

(May 04 post) Based on a one off story by a Rupert Murdock paper you are assigning 55k to the dustbin of history awfully quickly. Almost gleefully.

Not gleefully. Based on research and math. I only work with actual numbers and I do not work on verbal hype by the wall street community. I think with this week's action - both Bgarret and Krugerrand may want to rethink their need to call me out.

 

[pGo]

Bonaire, I can't say congratulations but definitely a realistic prediction better than anyone else. Hopefully you took advantage of your knowledge and recent price movement.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think with this week's action - both Bgarret and Krugerrand may want to rethink their need to call me out.

Oh, the irony.