For those nay-sayers who said I was so-wrong back in early May with my post above, I just wanted to bring it up again. This week's stock price problems and downgrades are finally seeing a light that I could see well back into February of 2015 when I made my 2015 contest guess of 47,690. But I don't mind the mud-slinging. I have faith in my work.
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Not gleefully. Based on research and math. I only work with actual numbers and I do not work on verbal hype by the wall street community. I think with this week's action - both Bgarret and Krugerrand may want to rethink their need to call me out.
Bonaire, you're celebrating prematurely. You think that just because Tesla needs to step up their production in the last quarter by a huge amount that they can't do it, and you use analysts, whom none of us have historically trusted, as your evidence. Tesla guided for 50-55k afterall. They guided for that (50-55k) in August and also guided for about 11.5k cars in Q3. They hit 11.5k cars in Q3, so they're hitting their guidance so far, and there's no reason to believe they won't hit 50-55k as of today. In Q2, you predicted definitely less than 10,000, and perhaps 9,000. Q2 ended up being 11,532. There's no way you knew that Tesla was going to deliver 11,580 in Q3 either, you probably thought much less, yet you have the guts to celebrate your full year prediction of 47,690 (and prematurely so) while disparaging the people who point out that your predictions are based on complete speculation and wishful thinking, not research and math that you like to claim you used (VIN assignments and whatever other methods you used that involved looking through threads on TMC are wildly inaccurate). Your prediction, by the way is on par with Paulo Santos's (46,500), Anton Wahlman's (43,109), and Logical Thought's (42,000 revised up from 37,000). Tesla bears are shooting themselves in the foot with all these bearish predictions for this year's deliveries, and analysts aren't doing much better. Expect a big pop in stock price when Tesla reiterates or even raises guidance in November.