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Prediction Competition for 2015

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For those nay-sayers who said I was so-wrong back in early May with my post above, I just wanted to bring it up again. This week's stock price problems and downgrades are finally seeing a light that I could see well back into February of 2015 when I made my 2015 contest guess of 47,690. But I don't mind the mud-slinging. I have faith in my work.

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Not gleefully. Based on research and math. I only work with actual numbers and I do not work on verbal hype by the wall street community. I think with this week's action - both Bgarret and Krugerrand may want to rethink their need to call me out.

Bonaire, you're celebrating prematurely. You think that just because Tesla needs to step up their production in the last quarter by a huge amount that they can't do it, and you use analysts, whom none of us have historically trusted, as your evidence. Tesla guided for 50-55k afterall. They guided for that (50-55k) in August and also guided for about 11.5k cars in Q3. They hit 11.5k cars in Q3, so they're hitting their guidance so far, and there's no reason to believe they won't hit 50-55k as of today. In Q2, you predicted definitely less than 10,000, and perhaps 9,000. Q2 ended up being 11,532. There's no way you knew that Tesla was going to deliver 11,580 in Q3 either, you probably thought much less, yet you have the guts to celebrate your full year prediction of 47,690 (and prematurely so) while disparaging the people who point out that your predictions are based on complete speculation and wishful thinking, not research and math that you like to claim you used (VIN assignments and whatever other methods you used that involved looking through threads on TMC are wildly inaccurate). Your prediction, by the way is on par with Paulo Santos's (46,500), Anton Wahlman's (43,109), and Logical Thought's (42,000 revised up from 37,000). Tesla bears are shooting themselves in the foot with all these bearish predictions for this year's deliveries, and analysts aren't doing much better. Expect a big pop in stock price when Tesla reiterates or even raises guidance in November.
 
Oh, the irony.

Bonaire, you're celebrating prematurely. You think that just because Tesla needs to step up their production in the last quarter by a huge amount that they can't do it, and you use analysts, whom none of us have historically trusted, as your evidence. Tesla guided for 50-55k afterall. They guided for that (50-55k) in August and also guided for about 11.5k cars in Q3. They hit 11.5k cars in Q3, so they're hitting their guidance so far, and there's no reason to believe they won't hit 50-55k as of today. In Q2, you predicted definitely less than 10,000, and perhaps 9,000. Q2 ended up being 11,532. There's no way you knew that Tesla was going to deliver 11,580 in Q3 either, you probably thought much less, yet you have the guts to celebrate your full year prediction of 47,690 (and prematurely so) while disparaging the people who point out that your predictions are based on complete speculation and wishful thinking, not research and math that you like to claim you used (VIN assignments and whatever other methods you used that involved looking through threads on TMC are wildly inaccurate). Your prediction, by the way is on par with Paulo Santos's (46,500), Anton Wahlman's (43,109), and Logical Thought's (42,000 revised up from 37,000). Tesla bears are shooting themselves in the foot with all these bearish predictions for this year's deliveries, and analysts aren't doing much better. Expect a big pop in stock price when Tesla reiterates or even raises guidance in November.

I don't think anyone really knows what is going to happen, because a lot of this depends on the Model X ramp. This is why I am emphasizing over and over to watch the Model X forum and deliveries threads. That is going to give clues as to the ultimate outcome this year. Right now all we have is foggy speculation and the ghost of Eds. Eds. Eds... Happy Halloween.

:eek:

I think it's likely that Tesla can make it to the high-40's and even 50k level with mostly Model S and a handful of Model X. Meeting the upper end of old guidance (55k) would probably require a breakout ramp of Model X production and delivery.
 
For those nay-sayers who said I was so-wrong back in early May with my post above, I just wanted to bring it up again. This week's stock price problems and downgrades are finally seeing a light that I could see well back into February of 2015 when I made my 2015 contest guess of 47,690. But I don't mind the mud-slinging. I have faith in my work.

Back in February you predicted 6890 model X deliveries. If it turns out you win this contest, I feel it's mostly by luck rather than a keen insight into what was going to happen.
 
Expect a big pop in stock price when Tesla reiterates or even raises guidance in November.

FWIW, I see close to zero probability that they raise guidance. If anything, they might meet the lower end of the guidance. Remember what Elon has said, there are thousands of parts involved and they will be dependent on the least lucky supplier. They have some issues with about 10 % of those parts currently and major issues with 1 PC of those parts. 1 percent of thousands of parts is at least 20 parts which Elon said is " excruciating ". He also said that the X production ramp will display an S curve during the ramp up.

Put all that together and expect say even 14-15 K Model S deliveries and the X is unknown even to Elon or the management team.

If you think there is a any chance they will raise guidance ( meaning beyond the 52.5 K mid point of current guidance ) then I think you are either smoking something or off the reservation.

As for me, I am not a short term thinker or investor. If the stock dips into the 180's or even low 190's I will simply buy more. I want to see the shorts work the price down! I am betting on Elon and the their vertically integrated strategy and focus on cell technology and cost economies of scale with battery production. Once they get their production issues sorted out ( which might even take until June 2016) and get the Gigafactory rolling, Tesla will do very well. I don't see any real completion for Tesla in the EV Space until at least 2019. And I expect the Tesla Energy business is being very under appreciated by most people, particularly powerpack demand. As for X and S demand, it will be greater than production capacity even in 2017. Demand will not be the limiting factor....production will be.

Tune out the shorts. They are not worth your time!
 
What is the current Model S weekly production rate?

I would venture to say that Tesla will ramp up Model S production to a rate that allows them to meet the lower end of guidance and maybe even more (this would mean going from 1100 cars per week currently to close to 1500). I say this because in the shareholder letter, Tesla wrote that the reason they lowered the guidance from 55k to 50k-55k is because Model X supplier delays of just one week could reduce production by 800 cars, also since Model S and X share the same general assembly line, Model X problems could slow down Model S production if they are severe enough. They didn't say they lowered the guidance because they are cautious about Model S ramp, so therefore it makes sense that the Model S would hit the 50k that they have been taking about (the original guidance at the beginning of the year was 50k Model S and 5k Model X).

FWIW, I see close to zero probability that they raise guidance. If anything, they might meet the lower end of the guidance. Remember what Elon has said, there are thousands of parts involved and they will be dependent on the least lucky supplier. They have some issues with about 10 % of those parts currently and major issues with 1 PC of those parts. 1 percent of thousands of parts is at least 20 parts which Elon said is " excruciating ". He also said that the X production ramp will display an S curve during the ramp up.

Put all that together and expect say even 14-15 K Model S deliveries and the X is unknown even to Elon or the management team.

If you think there is a any chance they will raise guidance ( meaning beyond the 52.5 K mid point of current guidance ) then I think you are either smoking something or off the reservation.

As for me, I am not a short term thinker or investor. If the stock dips into the 180's or even low 190's I will simply buy more. I want to see the shorts work the price down! I am betting on Elon and the their vertically integrated strategy and focus on cell technology and cost economies of scale with battery production. Once they get their production issues sorted out ( which might even take until June 2016) and get the Gigafactory rolling, Tesla will do very well. I don't see any real completion for Tesla in the EV Space until at least 2019. And I expect the Tesla Energy business is being very under appreciated by most people, particularly powerpack demand. As for X and S demand, it will be greater than production capacity even in 2017. Demand will not be the limiting factor....production will be.

Tune out the shorts. They are not worth your time!

For Model S, I think you are way off. They will do their best to meet the lower end of guidance just with Model S. Also, my definition of raising guidance is different than yours. The street at this point assigns a much higher probability to a miss of the lower end of guidance, and therefore taking the mid point of the range doesn't make much sense. By November when Tesla can make guidance, they will know whether or not there will be supplier issues for at least the rest of Novemeber because they keep probably around 2-3 weeks inventory. Since Tesla will be knowledgable about much of the quarter already, they would be able to narrow the guidance range if they chose to. If they do that, and let's (hypothetically) say they narrow it to 52,000-53,000 (if they narrow guidance, it probably won't be by this much), by your definition they maintained guidance because the midpoint of the range remains the same. However, I would call this a guidance raise because the street expects 50k or less at this point (which is partially why the stock has been falling), and it reassures investors into a narrower range with a higher low end guidance. Also, your definition presents a problem: by your definition, delivering 51,000 cars is a miss, even though it's within Tesla's range and above the low end which everyone expects at this point. It would be really weird to see the stock pop on 51,000 deliveries (because it is higher than everyone anticipates) if that's what you and everybody in the media call a miss, imagine how much the headlines wouldn't make sense: "Tesla misses yearly guidance by 1500 cars, stock up 7%". I think "Tesla exceeds lower end of guidance by 1000 cars, stock up 7%" makes much more sense.

Most of us here are long term investors. A problem that may arise is being over leveraged, which forces many of the long term thinkers to worry about the short term. I'm sure that's why some of us here are jittery about Tesla and yearly guidance and all these short term things. I'm confident that Tesla will meet and exceed the lower end of guidance.
 
Also, your definition presents a problem: by your definition, delivering 51,000 cars is a miss, even though it's within Tesla's range and above the low end which everyone expects at this point. It would be really weird to see the stock pop on 51,000 deliveries (because it is higher than everyone anticipates) if that's what you and everybody in the media call a miss, imagine how much the headlines wouldn't make sense: "Tesla misses yearly guidance by 1500 cars, stock up 7%". I think "Tesla exceeds lower end of guidance by 1000 cars, stock up 7%" makes much more sense.

Most of us here are long term investors. A problem that may arise is being over leveraged, which forces many of the long term thinkers to worry about the short term. I'm sure that's why some of us here are jittery about Tesla and yearly guidance and all these short term things. I'm confident that Tesla will meet and exceed the lower end of guidance.

1. I would not consider 51.000 to be a miss. I'd be happy with that!

2. I do not use leverage, and I don't invest what I can't afford to lose and keep my current lifestyle.

Having said that, I think your production expectations for S and X are not currently grounded in reality. Elon has clearly said that the production ramp for X is, and will be challenging. I don't expect S production to go from 11.5 K to 17k in one quarter.
 
Besides the increase of the weekly Model S production rate in Q4 2015, there is another factor to consider:

How many Model S cars were produced in Q3 2015, but not delivered in Q3 2015, and therefore will be delivered in Q4 2015?

Shareholder Letter Q2 2015: production of 12,807 Tesla Model S vehicles.

How about an average weekly production rate of 1,250 Tesla Model S vehicles in the second half of 2015?
24 x 1,250 = 30,000

Q3 2015: 14,000 (+/-) Tesla Model S vehicles.
Q4 2015: 16,000 (+/-) Tesla Model S vehicles.

How many Tesla Model S deliveries in H2 2015?
Q3 2015: 11,580
Q4 2015: 15,000 (?)

Total Tesla Model S deliveries in 2015: about 48,000 (?)

Total Tesla Model X deliveries in 2015: about 2,000 (?)

Total vehicles delivered in 2015: about 50,000 (?)

Would that be a likely scenario?
 
Bonaire, I can't say congratulations but definitely a realistic prediction better than anyone else. Hopefully you took advantage of your knowledge and recent price movement.

No, I did not do any trading in particular on this. All it is really is trying to prove that in my view, wall street analysts out there can get it wrong - I'd have to wonder how many of those wall streeters even drive an EV (if not Tesla, something else). I look at numbers realistically and scan across the five years of actual EV sales history starting in late 2010. It's an evolution that will take time.
 
In case people didn't know, bonaire won the previous full year prediction competition.
Prediction competition for 2014

Thanks for remembering, Larken. It's possible I may repeat this year but we'll find out in a month and a half.

Request for 2016 competition - mark the date of the guess next to the guesser. That way you can see how early the guess came in versus waiting until later in the window.
 
Thanks for remembering, Larken. It's possible I may repeat this year but we'll find out in a month and a half.

Request for 2016 competition - mark the date of the guess next to the guesser. That way you can see how early the guess came in versus waiting until later in the window.

It's a good point, and that's why I always encourage everyone to cast their vote as late as possible, which has always been 1 week after the Q4 earnings report (around the middle of February). People have the opportunity to modify their vote up and until then. This is to capture the Tesla full year guidance in the conference call. I also remind people in the forum days prior to the final date to review their numbers, and many do. Let's see how it looks in the next year's competition thread if we need to go with your suggestion. I'll open up the new thread in the beginning of next year.
 
It's a good point, and that's why I always encourage everyone to cast their vote as late as possible, which has always been 1 week after the Q4 earnings report (around the middle of February). People have the opportunity to modify their vote up and until then. This is to capture the Tesla full year guidance in the conference call. I also remind people in the forum days prior to the final date to review their numbers, and many do. Let's see how it looks in the next year's competition thread if we need to go with your suggestion. I'll open up the new thread in the beginning of next year.

I think a true estimate does not use february guidance but does so simply from end of year sales. I think for true competition, we need to remove subsidies and close the guesses the day before the Q4 call occurs. Let's make it a true guessing contest and not rely on help from the company. By holding the guess date with the member, we can see if they are just extending guidance or using their own skill level. This is a contest for finding the "true Oracle" and that means their own skills are being used. We can never know if a mid year "card" will be thrown. Nobody knew 70 RWD or Ludicrous was coming during 2015. We also assumed Model X would be here by now. I doubt the value of waiting for Q4 call guidance matters much. Only four of 2015 contest guesses will be under the actual delivery number. That indicates 35 are over and possibly many were guessing with some level of exuberance built from following or extending corporate guidance. Same thing happened in the 2014 contest. 12 2015 guesses were 60,000 and higher. Strange thing is, 55,000 was possible if the company actually pushed harder to get Model X out the door earlier in the year.

Benz, I do still believe I have 2015 "in the bag". Three weeks until we know. I won't mind a repeat win. And also, aren't 1400 2015 sales considered 2014 vacation-affected sales?
 
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