Prediction Competition for 2016

[Benz]

And if they really choose to use a range of 10,000 inbetween the low end and high end of their guidance for 2016, then which of the three following options will they be more likely to guide for 2016:

A) 70,000 - 80,000
B) 75,000 - 85,000
C) 80,000 - 90,000

I think that they should guide for 70,000 - 80,000. Because chances of beating guidance will be slimmer/smaller if they would choose option B or option C.

And in August they then could narrow the range of their guidance to 5,000 inbetween the low end and high end of their guidance for 2016.

 

[FlatSix911]

Here is a cool infographic on 2015 EV sales in the US ... I expect dramatic growth next year! http://howmuch.net/

 

[bonaire]

I think that they should guide for 70,000 - 80,000. Because chances of beating guidance will be slimmer/smaller if they would choose option B or option C.

And in August they then could narrow the range of their guidance to 5,000 inbetween the low end and high end of their guidance for 2016.

A 10k wide guidance is not exactly good forecasting. They have known Model X orders to work down, they know the take rate and incentive deltas in various countries and know the # of sales per store in most areas. It should be possible to do a solid 5k wide guidance right now and be correct. My 2014 guess here on TMC was within 20 of the year's sales. My 2015 guess was short by about 2k due to the push into Denmark and extra selling into China that I didn't factor in along with 1400 supposed falling into January of 2015 from 2014.. If I can get this close for two years, from the outside, why can't Tesla do a true guidance to start the year? Both 2014 and 2015, they had to lower guidance during the years but waited until well late in the year to do it. It seems a higher guidance is meant to look better to the stock market and to make headline news which itself is a form of free advertising.

Beating guidance is an end of year thing and short-lived. But forecasting better guidance than will be hit is a year-long benefit. In a growth company, you should always be trying to look good to start the year to make sure that people interested in buying product are not scared away. I predict that guidance is: "we aspire to deliver 75,000-80,000 during 2016". It's possible to hit that but will take work and another good stock market year to pull it off. They already have stated "50% growth annually for years to come". So, at least guidance has to be close to that.

 

[RationalOptimist]

In Q1, S deliveries will be much greater than X, but I think this will equalize for rest of the year and may shade in favor of X. I'm also taking into account Elon's (probably ill-advised) comment to the BBC that this year wd prob see "approximately" double the sales of last year. I think they will guide 75-80k to make 'a win feel like a win', and hit at least 84k deliveries, for spectacular >60% growth over the year. I'm going with:
47,505 Model S deliveries (slightly cannibalized by X, but offset by continued geographic growth)
37,111 Model X deliveries (accelerating throughout the year. will outsell S in Q4)
84,616 total deliveries

 

[Benz]

A 10k wide guidance is not exactly good forecasting. They have known Model X orders to work down, they know the take rate and incentive deltas in various countries and know the # of sales per store in most areas. It should be possible to do a solid 5k wide guidance right now and be correct. My 2014 guess here on TMC was within 20 of the year's sales. My 2015 guess was short by about 2k due to the push into Denmark and extra selling into China that I didn't factor in along with 1400 supposed falling into January of 2015 from 2014.. If I can get this close for two years, from the outside, why can't Tesla do a true guidance to start the year? Both 2014 and 2015, they had to lower guidance during the years but waited until well late in the year to do it. It seems a higher guidance is meant to look better to the stock market and to make headline news which itself is a form of free advertising.

Beating guidance is an end of year thing and short-lived. But forecasting better guidance than will be hit is a year-long benefit. In a growth company, you should always be trying to look good to start the year to make sure that people interested in buying product are not scared away. I predict that guidance is: "we aspire to deliver 75,000-80,000 during 2016". It's possible to hit that but will take work and another good stock market year to pull it off. They already have stated "50% growth annually for years to come". So, at least guidance has to be close to that.

The guidance for 2015 initially was 50,000 - 55,000. That's a range of 5,000 inbetween the lower end and the higher end of guidance. The range was 10% of the lower end of guidance.

And for 2016 the lower end of guidance will be at least 70,000. If the range remains 10% of the lower end of guidance, then the range will be 7,000 wide. Anyway, what I mean is that the range will be more than 5,000 wide.

The guidance for 2016 will be announced in February 2016. And then there will be 3 moments to narrow down the range of guidance in 2016: May, August and November.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Initial 2015 guidance was "about 55,000". This was later revised downward to "50,000 - 55,000".

In 2015, we expect to deliver about 55,000 Model S and X vehicles, representing more than a 70% increase over 2014 deliveries.

 

[Benz]

Tesla Model X deliveries in 2016: they will obviously increase every next quarter. But what numbers will they actually realise?

How about:
Q1 2016: 3,000
Q2 2016: 6,000
Q3 2016: 9,000
Q4 2016: 12,000

 

[palmer_md]

68,200 total deliveries

 

[bonaire]

Bump - if anyone wants to participate this week going into the ER, post estimations in this thread.

 

[Chickenlittle]

68,200 total deliveries

90,000

 

[Electroman]

65723 total

 

[uselesslogin]

So my prediction is that Tesla really wants to beat guidance this year so I will predict a 5% guidance beat since they might guide lower than they think they can do. Of course I have no idea what that is until we get their guidance Wednesday.

 

[SBenson]

80,000 guidance announced in this ER.

No idea what the reality will turn out to be.

 

[yak-55]

66k = 44k "S" + 22k "X"

Given the poor Model X ramp, I am cutting my estimate to:
62k = 44k "S" + 18k "X"

I suspect company guidance at the upcoming ER will be much rosier ...

 

[PaulRocket]

I am saying 24k Model X and 53k Model S

 

[Lump]

I am waiting to see if that TMC cap shows up that Larken mentioned before making my 2016 prediction, I don't work for free you know :biggrin:.

 

[FakeStewartAlsop]

I'm thinking

• Model X = 15,000
• Model S = 56,000

It would have been 15,001 Model X, but, well, you know...

 

[dalalsid]

S 50001
X 25001

Total 75002

 

[HiTech]

I think it would be disastrous if the MS figures went down from 2015 figures. They will need to at least maintain 50k to keep the markets from jumping into the headlines of "slowing demand" with actual proof (unlike the current headlines without proof). Therefore, they will probably increase MS production figures to about 55-60k for 2016.

As for MX, with 25k backlog, I'd think they'd try to ramp up fast enough to cover most of these as fast as quality allows. My guess is that they'll cover about 20-25k in 2016.

Total of about 80k.

 

[Benz]

Initial guidance for 2015 was 50,000 - 55,000 (in February 2014).

That's a range of 5,000 inbetween the low end and high end of their guidance.

Will they stick to a range of 5,000 inbetween the low end and high end of their guidance for 2016?

Or is a wider range more likely (because the total guidance numbers for 2016 will be higher anyway, than the total guidance numbers for 2015 were)?

How about a range of 10,000 inbetween the low end and high end of their guidance for 2016?

Shareholder Letter Q4 2015:

"To achieve these goals we plan to deliver 80,000 to 90,000 new ModelS and Model X vehicles in 2016, ..."

I already thought they would do that (a range of 10,000).