Prediction Competition for 2016

[Electroman]

Although I won't be too surprised if Tesla comes short of 20k this year given that they have hardly made 1000 so far, they should easily surpass that 'hat-eating' target next year.

 

[FlatSix911]

Here is the guidance that Tesla provided at the recent shareholder meeting.
They forecast 16,000 vehicles in 1Q and 80,000 to 90,000 in total for 2016.

 

[bonaire]

Bump for any mid-year discussion.

 

[FlatSix911]

Tesla has now produced over 33k vehicles in 1H16 and is on track to produce +50K in 2H16 for a total of 83K - 85K

 

[schonelucht]

Interesting that the most picked answer is below guidance. Overall I think the average prediction will come closer to reality than last year's round.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Interesting that the most picked answer is below guidance. Overall I think the average prediction will come closer to reality than last year's round.

I think the poll was open before guidance was given.

 

[FlatSix911]

Interesting that the most picked answer is below guidance.
Overall I think the average prediction will come closer to reality than last year's round.

I looks like Tesla will beat the owners estimate of 77K- 80K

 

[RobStark]

I am liking my chances of 77,777 and another "the dog ate my homework" excuse.

But that is still excellent YoY growth.

Elon stated 100k-200k Model 3s in 2017 plus S and X.

I would be stoked at 150k units total in 2017.

 

[palmer_md]

I would have thought this thread would have been a bit more active now that we are close to the end of the year.

 

[RobStark]

I had that number weeks ago in the 2015 thread (Post 129).

Model S 50k
Model X 27,777

Tesla produced 83,922 vehicles
But only delivered 76,230 vehicles.

Like the consensus I was a tad optimistic.

Seems Tesla did not break down annual X and S deliveries only quarterly.

Who is claiming the win?

 

[AudubonB]

My 77,777 was 1,547, or 2.0%, off. Anybody closer?

 

[Larken]

My 77,777 was 1,547, or 2.0%, off. Anybody closer?

75,870
44,000 Model S
31,870 Model X

I think Cattledog has the closest guess, only off by 360 units. Congratulations on a fine guess!

Suggestion for next year's competition. Instead of having it as a poll where we can't pick a single winner, just a bracket of people, I think it's more fun if everyone guessed an exact number. We should only have 1 winner for this prestigious event, right?
If the majority wants it like that, then I can set up the new thread.

 

[FlatSix911]

Here are the preliminary numbers for Tesla US sales ... a very strong December Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

 

[dalalsid]

S 50001
X 25001

Total 75002

Hmm, I was close. Where's the 2017 thread...

 

[Mario Kadastik]

How about people wait a month until the actual numbers come out Last time there was a couple hundred cars difference too Then we can conclusively say what the total was. But yes, probably it won't change the final winner

 

[bonaire]

Here are the preliminary numbers for Tesla US sales ... a very strong December Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Great plug-in December market in the USA. 24,785 is nearly 80% YoY versus Dec 2015. Still falls short of the China market which is a lot of in-country domestic brands.