Prediction: Free supercharging to be brought back!

[AnxietyRanger]

I'm not sure if this is desperation (could much milder numbers hunting), but I do think this is a bit of a farce.

Whatever this is, the back and forth with this in two consecutive quarters is not very... stylish.

Also. Tesla is definitely not supply constrained anymore.

 

[Reciprocity]

@SageBrush, no, a desperation move would be free-cuts-in-line at the SuperChargers for life.

More then likely it reflects their confidence in being able to roll out enough supercharging before the launch and full speed production of the Model 3. Remember that they will more then likely only deliver about 69k model 3s this year on the very high end of optimistic expectations. July: 1k x 4 + Aug: 2k x 4 + Sept: 3k x 4 + Oct: 3k x 4 + Nov: 4k x 4 + Dec: 4k x 3 + 5000. If they are able to double the supercharging and destination charging then it will probably still be an issue in the highest density places, but not everywhere else, which is a good start.

 

[DriverOne]

Free supercharging might be reserved for S&X. Model 3 might still be pay-per-use. Another way to differentiate and generate upsells.

 

[thecloud]

I don't believe free charging is going to work in the long run though. 'Free' does weird things to people.

Like getting them to buy a Model S or X!
I will point out that it's not really free. The cost is paid up front when you buy the car with supercharging enabled, or if you enable it later.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I never expected something like this either, so kudos to OP for predicting similar. At the moment it seems like an extension of grandfathering only, but given this is a first precedent of resurrecting the free supercharging, they may still do the same in the future.

I am however, absolutely personally against the idea of them doing this as an exclusive feature for Model S/X after the Model 3 comes out (by this I mean Model 3 won't have the option, even as a paid option like for S60). That moves away from simple grandfathering to a class system for supercharging. I also doubt this is sustainable in the long run, esp. for local charging (the relative volumes of S/X will still be high going forward).

Note: I'm not making a prediction they won't do it, just that I'm against that policy if they do.

 

[verygreen]

I never expected something like this either, so kudos to OP for predicting similar. At the moment it seems like an extension of grandfathering only, but given this is a first precedent of resurrecting the free supercharging, they may still do the same in the future.

I am however, absolutely personally against the idea of them doing this as an exclusive feature for Model S/X after the Model 3 comes out (by this I mean Model 3 won't have the option, even as a paid option like for S60). That moves away from simple grandfathering to a class system for supercharging. I also doubt this is sustainable in the long run, esp. for local charging (the relative volumes of S/X will still be high going forward).

Note: I'm not making a prediction they won't do it, just that I'm against that policy if they do.

I'll go on a limb and predict that Tesla is on the verge (as in early next quarter I guess, but early next year is an option too) of a big announce that would boil down to something like:
- Licensing superchargers to third parties (perhaps under different name) and free supercharging obviously won't work with them, but instead pricing would be up to the owners of actual stations
OR
- will introduce the new charging standard (megacharging?) at a higher rate. You would be able to buy a convertor from this to legacy tesla connector, but those stations won't be superchargers hence not free.
OR
- announce that they are going to embrace some different 3rd party standard because it is now good enough and there are enough backers to build that infrastructure fast. Legacy car owners could buy a convertor.
or something in that same vein.

As a consequence of that existing superchargers would not be expanded all that greatly compared to now and while they'd remain free the costs would be greatly contained for Tesla. Possibly convertor from supercharger to some other popular standard would emerge and Tesla would make some more money on that front as well to sustain the existing supercharger network.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I'll go on a limb and predict that Tesla is on the verge (as in early next quarter I guess, but early next year is an option too) of a big announce that would boil down to something like:
- Licensing superchargers to third parties (perhaps under different name) and free supercharging obviously won't work with them, but instead pricing would be up to the owners of actual stations
OR
- will introduce the new charging standard (megacharging?) at a higher rate. You would be able to buy a convertor from this to legacy tesla connector, but those stations won't be superchargers hence not free.
OR
- announce that they are going to embrace some different 3rd party standard because it is now good enough and there are enough backers to build that infrastructure fast. Legacy car owners could buy a convertor.
or something in that same vein.

As a consequence of that existing superchargers would not be expanded all that greatly compared to now and while they'd remain free the costs would be greatly contained for Tesla. Possibly convertor from supercharger to some other popular standard would emerge and Tesla would make some more money on that front as well to sustain the existing supercharger network.

While it may not be about supercharging specifically, I agree that moves like this is usually a sign that Tesla is on a verge of some sort of big announcement (for example it could be something unrelated, like they will be moving to 2170 packs), so they need to move the current vehicles quickly.

 

[NikeWings]

While it may not be about supercharging specifically, I agree that moves like this is usually a sign that Tesla is on a verge of some sort of big announcement (for example it could be something unrelated, like they will be moving to 2170 packs), so they need to move the current vehicles quickly.

It's exciting to think big, and something is probably brewing. But since this referral program runs thru the end of the year, any major announcement would likely follow. In the meantime though, it serves a great purpose....create more loyalty, provide a hook and convert M sales to S sales wherever possible.

Q2 numbers may not be horrid, but Tesla is not taking any chances for the rest of the year and is using the most powerful word in marketing to their advantage. Free.

 

[Cowby]

Another kudos to @Reciprocity, aka Nostradamus! What's the next prediction??

 

[gowthamn]

Do people who buy MS or MX now get to refer 5 people for free supercharging?
If not we will eventually run out of referral links for free supercharging.

 

[NikeWings]

Do people who buy MS or MX now get to refer 5 people for free supercharging?
If not we will eventually run out of referral links for free supercharging.

I believe its upon delivery of your X or S, that your access to the referral program in effect is turned on within your app and MyTesla account. The program runs (for now anyway) through 2017 whch accomodates a lot of new owner Teslavangelists.

 

[sandpiper]

It appears that I was horribly wrong

 

[dmode]

@Reciprocity what's your prediction of Tesla stock price ?

 

[Reciprocity]

@Reciprocity what's your prediction of Tesla stock price ?

Buy as much as you can afford. No clue what it will be, just that it will be much higher in 10 years, 20 years and so on. Companies like this that disrupt several industries at a time dont come along every day. The stock will be up and down but at some point it will jump and you want to make sure you are in there. I would not use any leverage, just straight purchase. I have about 1/3rd of my money in there and I am very comfortable with that helping meet my retirement goals in 20 years or so.