Prediction: Free supercharging to be brought back!

[Reciprocity]

I predict one or both or these two things will happen, that would allow those without free supercharging for life:

Not sure yet of the timing, but I am expecting that free supercharging will come back for the S/X only. Maybe towards the end of the year when the Model 3's start getting out into the wild in good numbers. They would allow S/X that currently do not have free supercharging to add it for $1500 or so, which would enable every S/X to have free supercharging for life again.

I also think they could tie free supercharging to FSD to entice people to active it early. This could be done for Model 3 or instead of the above for S/X.

 

[Zythryn]

I predict one or both or these two things will happen, that would allow those without free supercharging for life:

Not sure yet of the timing, but I am expecting that free supercharging will come back for the S/X only. Maybe towards the end of the year when the Model 3's start getting out into the wild in good numbers. They would allow S/X that currently do not have free supercharging to add it for $1500 or so, which would enable every S/X to have free supercharging for life again.

I also think they could tie free supercharging to FSD to entice people to active it early. This could be done for Model 3 or instead of the above for S/X.

I don't see that happening.
Unlimited free supercharging causes issues as you get more and more cars on the road.
Specifically, the crowding at superchargers in California.

 

[Reciprocity]

I don't see that happening.
Unlimited free supercharging causes issues as you get more and more cars on the road.
Specifically, the crowding at superchargers in California.

Yeah I get that.. but they also want to sell a lot of cars. What if, the supercharging network was upgraded as part of the model 3 + 2170 cell upgrades to the S/X that allowed for 20 minute charges. Do you think they would bring it back then?

 

[chris5639]

Yeah I get that.. but they also want to sell a lot of cars. What if, the supercharging network was upgraded as part of the model 3 + 2170 cell upgrades to the S/X that allowed for 20 minute charges. Do you think they would bring it back then?

I'm in Texas and so far there hasn't been any wait at the superchargers that I've visited. I dread the day when this happens. How are lines in California being handled today? I know in Mountain View, they actually have someone from Tesla managing it but I also know that two women in San Diego got into a fight at a supercharger located by Qualcomm. What if I'm parked nearby and waiting for one of the stalls and someone just shows up and cuts in line? Also, since the stalls are paired, the refueling time will increase overall as volume increases. Obviously Tesla will continue to add locations as well as upgrade the existing ones but there's a lot of ifs.

The cost per charge will be so low that it won't really affect anyone's wallet but I'm hoping the psychology of having to pay will limit the amount of visits from local folks who can otherwise charge at home.

Consider me in the group of folks who are glad Tesla is no longer offering free supercharging for life. I'm also a big fan of use taxes vs. income taxes. Pay based on consumption... go figure.

 

[KrenGrl]

I predict one or both or these two things will happen, that would allow those without free supercharging for life:

Not sure yet of the timing, but I am expecting that free supercharging will come back for the S/X only. Maybe towards the end of the year when the Model 3's start getting out into the wild in good numbers. They would allow S/X that currently do not have free supercharging to add it for $1500 or so, which would enable every S/X to have free supercharging for life again.

I also think they could tie free supercharging to FSD to entice people to active it early. This could be done for Model 3 or instead of the above for S/X.

That would be cool, but what is your basis for this fabulous prediction?

I am predicting I will discover a new black hole by the end of the year, but I have no basis for that prediction

 

[Reciprocity]

I know in Mountain View, they actually have someone from Tesla managing it but I also know that two women in San Diego got into a fight at a supercharger located by Qualcomm.

Faster charging solves this issue as no one is going to get into a fist fight over a 20 minute wait. Valleys at bigger, more congested superchargers is a good solution.

 

[Reciprocity]

That would be cool, but what is your basis for this fabulous prediction?

I am predicting I will discover a new black hole by the end of the year, but I have no basis for that prediction

First, I hate you. Second, good luck finding a new black hole, they are hard to see.

The basis is the fact that Tesla seems to always pull something out of their hat, including taking away free supercharging to juice sales. Adding a 60kWh version of the car that actually has a 75kWh batter that can be upgraded by software, then oddly enough, getting rid of the 60kWh option to juice sales.. then after that allowing people to upgrade to 75kWh for peanuts. My guess is that anything is on the table with Tesla and free supercharging is one of the biggest carrots they have to dangle. Not saying they will do it today, thinking more like this time next year once Model 3 really starts getting into the wild and new people are forced to choose between waiting 12 months for a 3 or purchasing a S75 today. Free supercharging might just be enough to push them over the edge.

 

[KrenGrl]

First, I hate you. Second, good luck finding a new black hole, they are hard to see.

The basis is the fact that Tesla seems to always pull something out of their hat, including taking away free supercharging to juice sales. Adding a 60kWh version of the car that actually has a 75kWh batter that can be upgraded by software, then oddly enough, getting rid of the 60kWh option to juice sales.. then after that allowing people to upgrade to 75kWh for peanuts. My guess is that anything is on the table with Tesla and free supercharging is one of the biggest carrots they have to dangle. Not saying they will do it today, thinking more like this time next year once Model 3 really starts getting into the wild and new people are forced to choose between waiting 12 months for a 3 or purchasing a S75 today. Free supercharging might just be enough to push them over the edge.

That's ok for you to hate me. We aren't married. I just like to understand the basis for a prediction to see if it makes sense to me and mentions something I haven't thought about.

Yea, I agree that it is a carrot to dangle, yet I tend to think that when a company cuts something out, they don't usually bring it back. Actually along the line of Chris thinking, if I get a model 3 I hope they don't bring back free supercharging for the same reasons he mentions. I would think that if Tesla sales suffer then perhaps you're prediction could come true. But so far they seem to have a lot of people wanting to buy more cars than they can build. It will be interesting to see.

 

[Panu]

Only problem with "free" supercharging is congestion caused by locals (not much yet but when Model 3 roadtrippers hit the road). Free supercharging can be brought back if that problem is solved.

It can be solved with an algorithm that decides when you are on roadtrip and do not have to pay for charging. The problem is that there are always people who get pissed if they have to pay €2 when in their opinion they are on roadtrip and should get it for free. But if it is made very clear from day 1 that the algorithm cannot make everyone happy every time then it might work.

 

[KrenGrl]

I also think they could tie free supercharging to FSD to entice people to active it early.

Yea, I could see that possibly happening.

 

[chris5639]

Faster charging solves this issue as no one is going to get into a fist fight over a 20 minute wait. Valleys at bigger, more congested superchargers is a good solution.

It will certainly help. 20 minutes is fine by me. What I fear is how the queue will be handled. With 400,000 model 3's coming online, it's likely not going to be just one person ahead of you but several. 20 minutes easily becomes an hour with 3 people ahead of you. And then you deal with inconsiderate jerks who think there are 8 lines and not 1.

Again, I have to assume with more sales comes more stalls and locations. All good things. But I'm not not a fan of opportunity charging just because someone can save a few bucks. In Texas the rate is about $0.09 / KwH. Let's assume a 75D is completely empty and a 20% charging inefficiency, we're talking $8.10. Yet there are folks who live locally to a supercharger and drive a $70K+ car willing to sit there for 30 minutes to save $8. That's the silly psychology I'm hoping will go away with the 2017 change.

 

[KrenGrl]

Only problem with "free" supercharging is congestion caused by locals (not much yet but when Model 3 roadtrippers hit the road). Free supercharging can be brought back if that problem is solved.

It can be solved with an algorithm that decides when you are on roadtrip and do not have to pay for charging. The problem is that there are always people who get pissed if they have to pay €2 when in their opinion they are on roadtrip and should get it for free. But if it is made very clear from day 1 that the algorithm cannot make everyone happy every time then it might work.

Uh you triggered a thought.... Tesla knows your car and knows where it is registered. If you are a great distance from home (like indicating you are on a vacation or long road trip, they could decide to make it free. That prevents the locals from crowding the supercharges because they are too cheap to charge at home.

 

[chris5639]

Only problem with "free" supercharging is congestion caused by locals (not much yet but when Model 3 roadtrippers hit the road). Free supercharging can be brought back if that problem is solved.

It can be solved with an algorithm that decides when you are on roadtrip and do not have to pay for charging. The problem is that there are always people who get pissed if they have to pay €2 when in their opinion they are on roadtrip and should get it for free. But if it is made very clear from day 1 that the algorithm cannot make everyone happy every time then it might work.

The algorithm idea is a good one. But again, I really wonder if a few bucks matter that much. You're on a road trip and pay for drinks and food, why not a little for fuel? It is still a fraction of the cost of gas right?

I recently moved from California to Texas for work and was initially annoyed with all the toll roads. But since they are all automated with RFID, there are no toll booths to bother with. It occurred to me that it was the booths that bugged me, not the tolls. The idea that only folks that use the road pay for the road appeals to me. If supercharging is charged via credit card automatically to my account and I just plug in and charge, I have zero issues with paying per use.

 

[Reciprocity]

Yea, I could see that possibly happening.

See, you dont hate all my ideas.

 

[Reciprocity]

The algorithm idea is a good one. But again, I really wonder if a few bucks matter that much. You're on a road trip and pay for drinks and food, why not a little for fuel? It is still a fraction of the cost of gas right?

I am not saying that people want free supercharging because its logical. You are correct that it is still so economical that it shouldn't be such a big benefit, but the peace of mind that comes with "free supercharging for life" is very compelling. I am a good example as I moved up my purchase to Dec, 2016 because of it.

 

[NikeWings]

Tesla learned quickly that Free Supercharging was the best promotional gig its ever had.......it will be selectively used, insanely priced and preying on those that are in love with "free" regardless of the math. And there are plenty of them. Thats my prediction.

 

[KrenGrl]

The algorithm idea is a good one. But again, I really wonder if a few bucks matter that much. You're on a road trip and pay for drinks and food, why not a little for fuel? It is still a fraction of the cost of gas right?
.

Yup, agree. I'll pay a few bucks on a road trip, especially if the reason is to deter the locals from using it. I'm just trying to make a case for where recip thinks free supercharging would come back. This is the only scenario I can image right now (free only if you are far from home). Otherwise I don't see it happening.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Yeah I get that.. but they also want to sell a lot of cars. What if, the supercharging network was upgraded as part of the model 3 + 2170 cell upgrades to the S/X that allowed for 20 minute charges. Do you think they would bring it back then?

If it's $150k for 8 stalls, then each stall costs $18.75k. So the cost of a unnecessary occupation of a stall is high.

Given that a free Supercharging option would attract those people who would make greater use of the slot, and given that Tesla has found that they have capacity problems in areas with high density, no, I can't foresee them reintroducing free Supercharging under the current system even if there is 20 minute charging. Even a 20 minute wait to plug in is too long.

In any case, Tesla wants to encourage people _not_ to use the Superchargers for most of their charging. If 3/Y has the expected demand, Tesla will want to ensure that the demand increases the push for charging facilities in shared lots.

 

[KrenGrl]

See, you dont hate all my ideas.

Hee hee. Well I guess you learned by now that "hate" is not in my personality. I may agree or disagree with a person based on their views and ideas. I don't judge them. Everyone has good days and bad ones

 

[Reciprocity]

In any case, Tesla wants to encourage people _not_ to use the Superchargers for most of their charging. If 3/Y has the expected demand, Tesla will want to ensure that the demand increases the push for charging facilities in shared lots.

I just want to be clear, I dont think free supercharging will come back for every model. Primarily S/X and maybe tied to very expensive options like FSD. It could narrowly be added to only S/X that enable FSD who did not previously have free supercharging for example.

They are certainly going to have to expand the charging network over the next few years and probably forever since they expect to continue to grow sales volume and product lines.