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Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"
- Thread starter SDRick
- Start date
petit_bateau
Active Member
Watts_Up
Well-Known Member
I would be more interested about a pool estimating when ICE vehicles will be completely extinct.
Or would this even occur? I wonder if some extreme cold weather, petrol car will still be the best solution and will not disappear?
Or would this even occur? I wonder if some extreme cold weather, petrol car will still be the best solution and will not disappear?
I would say for this poll let's be inclusive and consider vehicles with electric motors only, no ICE.
It will be interesting to see how this poll plays out over the next many years. Seems like most people think 2030 is the year new BEV sales surpass ICE. I think it will be a bit sooner personally, time will tell!
Ok, so that would include BEVs and hydrogen FCEVs, although the latter barely have had any sales in the US, almost all in California.
BTW, there is Governor Newsom’s Zero-Emission by 2035 Executive Order (N-79-20) | California Air Resources Board and California is the largest auto market in the US. I don't think it'll be met and/or it will be watered down (e.g. target lowered, date pushed out, other vehicles get to be counted as ZEVs, etc.) That's part of why I voted after 2040.
CA tried to set aggressive ZEV rules (before my time in following) that led to vehicles like the GM EV1, gen 1 Toyota RAV4 EV - Wikipedia, Honda EV Plus - Wikipedia but in the end, those ZEV rules are WAY scaled back.
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Thanks for sharing your graph.
It is a bit difficult to discern what the current percentage is in 2022
Any chance you could modify with a line showing actual percentage in addition to the prediction?
petit_bateau
Active Member
Do you mean extinct as in "no longer produced" or as in "no longer used". If the former the answer (imho) is in my graph above. If the latter the likely answer (imho) is in the stock graph below. This projection uses a global blended fleet average life of 20-years. I came to that 20-years after looking at lifespans of various vehicle types, in various geographic markets, and of the flows between those markets for used vehicles. Basically the implication is that if this scenario comes to pass, then 2050 is about when the last ICE vehicles will leave the global fleet. There will of course be minor amounts hanging on but those are likely not material.
petit_bateau
Active Member
I created this analysis in 2021 and subsequently updated it to include 2021 actuals. 2022 is not yet over, so my number for 2022 is a prediction.
The 2021 BEV stock number is 0.8%, the 2022 BEV stock prediction is 1.2%. (stock = global fleet)
The 2021 BEV flow number is 5.8%, the 2022 BEV flow prediction is 6.7%. (flow = global sales)
I think the USA will likely be about the mid-point as an adopter, so the global average number (50% = approx 2030) is what I offer for USA. Some areas (esp Europe, possibly China) will switch faster, others slower.
This is the flow (sales) graph for BEV.
I put my historical sources up last year, for completeness here they are again. The scenario explored is my mid-case.
So you basically, you voted for 2030 in the poll? Good luck w/that.
Europe and China will almost certainly transition faster than the US. Not sure when they'll hit their 50% mark though.
Take a look at how entrenched existing US automakers are:
- Ford Maverick trucks seem to start around $21K.
https://gmauthority.com/blog/2022/07/gm-sales-figures-numbers-results-united-states-q2-2022/ - Yukon. Tahoe, Escalade and Suburban are all basically the same vehicle except the Slade is gussied up and Suburban is just an extended length version while the 1st three are also available as extended length. Also look at Equinox, Silverado and Sierra. Chevy Colorado pickups start at around $25K.
FCA Reports Second-quarter 2022 US Sales
/PRNewswire/ -- U.S. total sales decline 16%; retail sales down 24% Chrysler brand total U.S. sales increase 95% versus same quarter last year Total U.S. sales...
www.prnewswire.com
To think that somehow 50% of folks who bought those types of vehicles will jump to BEVs by 2030 is fantasy.
Here's US Toyota: Toyota Motor North America Reports U.S. Sales in June and First Half 2022. Toyota is cutting production again: Toyota to cut domestic production by 4,000 vehicles in July after rain snarls supplies.
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petit_bateau
Active Member
Yes I did vote for 50% of US sales being BEV by 2030.So you basically, you voted for 2030 in the poll? Good luck w/that.
Europe and China will almost certainly transition faster than the US. Not sure when they'll hit their 50% mark though.
Take a look at how entrenched existing US automakers are:
https://gmauthority.com/blog/2022/07/gm-sales-figures-numbers-results-united-states-q2-2022/ - Yukon. Tahoe, Escalade and Suburban are all basically the same vehicle except the Slade is gussied up and Suburban is just an extended length version while the 1st three are also available as extended length. Also look at Equinox, Silverado and Sierra.
FCA Reports Second-quarter 2022 US Sales
/PRNewswire/ -- U.S. total sales decline 16%; retail sales down 24% Chrysler brand total U.S. sales increase 95% versus same quarter last year Total U.S. sales...
To think that somehow 50% of folks who bought those types of vehicles will jump to BEVs by 2030 is fantasy.
I'm fairly familiar with the US auto scene thank you. I've even lived over there.
Sales of US autos inc light trucks tend to be about 15m/yr.
Let's look at this from a manufacturing capacity perspective. For North America by 2030 I have Tesla NAFTA pencilled in for Fremont+Sparks 500k/yr, Austin 2250k/yr, NAFTA #3 (likely US or CAN) 1250k/yr and NAFTA #4 (likely Mexico) 1250k/yr = 5,250k/yr. That site prediction was on the basis of Tesla maxing sites out at 2.5m/yr each. However I can see the possibility that Tesla may now be more inclined towards fewer but larger sites, each capable of reaching 5m/yr. So it may be that Austin goes to 5m/y and they don't open another significant plant in NAFTA in that timeframe. I am waiting on announcements from Tesla before I revise my factory scenario below, but I suspect that the fewer/larger arguments are winning the day inside Tesla. We will see. Irrespective I take Tesla at their word when they say their goal is 20m/yr and averaging 50% yoy growth, and my view is that their goals are plausible. Clearly the vast majority of NAFTA production will sell into USA. Round numbers, that is 5m/yr from Tesla.
So Tesla alone will be pumping about 5m/yr light vehicles into USA in 2030. Tesla is currently (2021) at 20% of global BEV production. Even if Tesla were to grow to become 50% of BEV production, and the remaining BEV production were to skewed geographically away from the US market in a 75/25 fashion, then the US production would still be 5+2.5=7.5m/yr in 2030. That is precisely 50% of the US auto sales. If the skew is less or even unskewed then it becomes >7.5m/y. If the Tesla market share is less than 50% - maybe say 25% - and other BEV production is unskewed then this would be 20m/yr BEVs manufactured for US mkt in 2030, which leaves less than zero for legacy ICE, or PHEV. So from a manufacturing (and sales) capacity perspective a 50% in 2030 projection is spot on in my analyis. Maybe even cautious.
Let's look from a buyer perspective. Which buyer in 2030 will want to put $50k-$75k on the table for a new polluting ICE vehicle at a time when gas stations are closing daily, ICE manufacturers are going bankrupt monthly, residuals on ICE are plummeting, and the fire season is burning all the edge-of-town housing lots. That's a tough sell. The only people buying new ICE in 2030 will be preppers with a stripper well in the back paddock, and those who literally cannot afford anything other than the fire-sale of a cheap ICE from a bankrupt manufacturer at max markdown.
Existing US-based automakers such as Ford, GM, BMW, Chrysler/etc may be entrenched in USA at present. But if they don't get with the BEV programme then the only trenches they will be occupying in 2030 are a mass grave. On their current financials they are aiming pretty squarely at that outcome.
Yeah, fantasy, not.
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Hurricane4911
IT Guy From 1980-2013, Retired
"Good Luck with That"So you basically, you voted for 2030 in the poll? Good luck w/that.
Europe and China will almost certainly transition faster than the US. Not sure when they'll hit their 50% mark though.
Take a look at how entrenched existing US automakers are:
- Ford Maverick trucks seem to start around $21K.
https://gmauthority.com/blog/2022/07/gm-sales-figures-numbers-results-united-states-q2-2022/ - Yukon. Tahoe, Escalade and Suburban are all basically the same vehicle except the Slade is gussied up and Suburban is just an extended length version while the 1st three are also available as extended length. Also look at Equinox, Silverado and Sierra. Chevy Colorado pickups start at around $25K.
FCA Reports Second-quarter 2022 US Sales
/PRNewswire/ -- U.S. total sales decline 16%; retail sales down 24% Chrysler brand total U.S. sales increase 95% versus same quarter last year Total U.S. sales...
To think that somehow 50% of folks who bought those types of vehicles will jump to BEVs by 2030 is fantasy.
Here's US Toyota: Toyota Motor North America Reports U.S. Sales in June and First Half 2022. Toyota is cutting production again: Toyota to cut domestic production by 4,000 vehicles in July after rain snarls supplies.
"Its a fantasy"
What the hell?
It's only a poll.
Cwerdna made it clear in the other thread that he does not believe EV adoption will happen on an exponential curve but rather a more linear one. So he laughs at anyone predicting future EV sales rates based on data or sales trends. He's basing his thoughts on this topic around anti-EV FUD, and too many people living in apartments, and the current 25 best selling car lists in the US. He also believes the oil industry will never allow EV sales to increase that quickly, and EV's are too expensive to go mainstream that fast.
He can vote how he wants in the poll and then in 5-7 years we'll see if he was right or not.
So you basically, you voted for 2030 in the poll? Good luck w/that.
Europe and China will almost certainly transition faster than the US. Not sure when they'll hit their 50% mark though.
Take a look at how entrenched existing US automakers are:
- Ford Maverick trucks seem to start around $21K.
https://gmauthority.com/blog/2022/07/gm-sales-figures-numbers-results-united-states-q2-2022/ - Yukon. Tahoe, Escalade and Suburban are all basically the same vehicle except the Slade is gussied up and Suburban is just an extended length version while the 1st three are also available as extended length. Also look at Equinox, Silverado and Sierra. Chevy Colorado pickups start at around $25K.
FCA Reports Second-quarter 2022 US Sales
/PRNewswire/ -- U.S. total sales decline 16%; retail sales down 24% Chrysler brand total U.S. sales increase 95% versus same quarter last year Total U.S. sales...
To think that somehow 50% of folks who bought those types of vehicles will jump to BEVs by 2030 is fantasy.
Here's US Toyota: Toyota Motor North America Reports U.S. Sales in June and First Half 2022. Toyota is cutting production again: Toyota to cut domestic production by 4,000 vehicles in July after rain snarls supplies.
Well, the way supply chains are going, we might get 50% EV just due to reduced vehicle sales.
Stuart Watson
Member
Look at the exponential adoption in Norway.
Stuart Watson
Member
I can’t tell you already… he’s wrong .He can vote how he wants in the poll and then in 5-7 years we'll see if he was right or not.
Stuart Watson
Member
Nice graph and easier to read. The graph shows current production at 9% for 2022 but according to US vehicle registration it is about half that at 4.6%, at least according to Automotive News and Experian.
Report: EV registrations surge 60% in first quarter of 2022
Electric vehicle (EV) registrations shot up by 60% in the first quarter of 2022, accounting for a record 4.6% of all new vehicle registrations in the U.S., according to financial data firm Experian…
www.repairerdrivennews.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
You are reading my 2023 estimate (9%), not my 2022 estimate (6.7%). If the mid-year figure for US is 4.6% then the end-year figure for US will almost certainly be higher. It will be interesting to see how much higher.Nice graph and easier to read. The graph shows current production at 9% for 2022 but according to US vehicle registration it is about half that at 4.6%, at least according to Automotive News and Experian.
Report: EV registrations surge 60% in first quarter of 2022
Electric vehicle (EV) registrations shot up by 60% in the first quarter of 2022, accounting for a record 4.6% of all new vehicle registrations in the U.S., according to financial data firm Experian…
Also my estimate is global, not USA. So although I think the US is likely to follow approximately the global average pathway I am less sure of where the US will be in any given year. Really until the BEVs have mass manufacture in every model segment that is material then there will be a lot of volatility. Right now this is most obvious in North American market where there is no "pick-up", and in Europe/China market where there is no competitive van. Until thos segments are properly served there will be local depression in uptake and I think this is (short term) most evident in US.
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