MontyFloyd
Member
Answer is not in Demand, its in Supply.
Recent poll says in the USA 25% in July 2022 are strongly looking at BEV, problem is supply will not come close to that for years, even with a dozen gigafactories.
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Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"
- Thread starter SDRick
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Recent poll says in the USA 25% in July 2022 are strongly looking at BEV, problem is supply will not come close to that for years, even with a dozen gigafactories.
MontyFloyd
Member
Flawed, due to the Great Depression and then WW 2 production restrictions, 15 years of strong reason not buy a car.
Price of cell phones have quadrupled over last 20 years, yet demand is still increasing.
If the supply could match current demand (and price would drop some), you would see a very, very steep rise in EV ownership.
I think the a large barrier for people on low incomes will be that they live in apartments that won't yet have charging.
But for a lot of the buyers in the used market, if there's value in EV, they'll buy.
I think supply constraints will help keep newer used EV prices higher, but I fully expect a steep drop in price when the EV is out of warranty. Hopefully, we'll see that in markets with higher penetration, the USA will see a repeat of what's happening in Norway, where independent companies are tooling up to work on EVs.
Stuart Watson
Member
Utter tosh !
A Model Y will cost less to run than a Toyota Corolla over 8 years … what kind of idiot will buy a Toyota Corolla ?
When people do the maths, most will want to buy an EV , (probably a Tesla ).
Adoption is happening much faster than most of you seem to acknowledge.
Stuart Watson
Member
As others pointed out ….
(Google the years 1929-1939, see if you can learn something?)
A replacement battery pack for an out of warranty Tesla would bankrupt most people. Maybe the person who purchased the Corolla and kept it for 8 years couldn't afford the upfront cost of the Model Y. Car repossessions are already up. The tax credits don't make these cars affordable to lower income folks. Which one would be more affordable to most people a 10 year old ICE SUV or a 10 year old Model X?
Stuart Watson
Member
There is already evidence that battery packs last between 160K and 250K miles. (By which time an ice vehicle needs a complete new drive train )
Hey, people don’t need to put “up front “. Though it’s possibly best if you can.
My friend in Philadelphia just replaced his fleet of six cars with Teslas. The lease of the Tesla’s is less than the costs on fuel of the ice cars !
Think about it.
The poll merely asks for a prediction regardless of mitigating factors (and there are many). If you believe it is more of a supply problem than a demand problem, you adjust your prediction to reflect that opinion. So what year did you pick?
Why do you think ICE engines only last 160 to 250K ? I had a Toyota Tundra I sold it in 2018 with 210,000 miles. My Chevy pickup 170k. I tow and travel with that truck. I have a 1991 F150 that the truck odometer has already turned over twice. I have a 72 Dodge that has the original drive train in it. As far as I can tell that engine has never been rebuilt. God knows what the real mileage on that car is You have Teslas that have had battery pack replacement packs with less than 120k on the odometer. When the engine dies on the F150 I will just get another one for 2500 dollars. I would like a cheap electric car but none exist for under 5K with at least a 120 mile range
Although this is a thread about the new vehicle market.
Norbert
TSLA will win
So many willing to drink the cool aid. Just wait in 10 to 15 years when most EV's are working nothing!! I plan to buy a new mini van next year, go ICE!!
Yes that’s the obvious critique. But economic constraints still played a role. Surely it’s tougher to go without a car completely (then) than to settle for outdated technology because you can’t easily afford the new tech (now).
The real issue here is that lower income/resources intersects with other deterrents to EV adoption.
1) Lower income people have less access to home charging.
2) Lower income people are more likely to be one car households. People are much more comfortable buying an EV if they have an ICE for backup, edge situations for which we all know prospective buyers overestimate frequency.
I voted 2032 because I think the plateau based upon resources for car purchases will be more than 50%. But I think it’s delusional to think the USA will get to 80-90% EVs in 10-12 years. A car new or used is way more expensive than any other tech in that chart I posted.
The 10-year TCO advantage over a Toyota Corolla doesn’t matter If the buyer can’t qualify for a loan on an EV.
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However,
3) Lower income people are less likely to buy a new car, so are less likely to be relevant to the poll.
Graham J
Member
It would be interesting to see a chart of new car sales vs. vehicle price. What percentage of cars are in the ballpark of EVs or up? Those are the sales that will be converted first. Seems reasonable to assume the rate at which the cheaper ones are converted to EV sales will largely be a factor of how quickly EV prices descend to those levels.
Stuart Watson
Member
Utter rubbish !
Why do I say that.
I doubt that there is a single new car buyer anywhere in the world (particularly in the west) who doesn’t not consider (i) depreciation (ii) fuel costs (iii) servicing costs (iv) warranty
Oh I don't agree with that. Tons of new car buyers don't think about any of that stuff, they simply buy the car they like the most from an aesthetic & performance point of view. For many new car buyers fuel costs are secondary, and I doubt depreciation is a factor at all.
Graham J
Member
Of course many consider them but people who are used to buying lower end cars aren't going to suddenly start buying more expensive cars just because their TCO is lower. TCO does help level the playing field but price of car is still going to track with budget in most cases and since EVs on average are fairly expensive it stands to reason the market will expand as prices decrease.
PS Like I always tell my nine year old, maybe you can find a nicer way to say that?
Stuart Watson
Member
In Europe, many cars are purchased by companies !
They, of course, have a legal obligation to consider the factors I mentioned.
They, of course, have a legal obligation to consider the factors I mentioned.
: ( We have a 2014 Toyota Corolla and a 2020 Model 3. Both purchased new. Both sitting in my driveway right now.
This statement is not true for us. Maybe if you live someplace where electric is very cheap and fuel is very expensive?
Are you assuming some kind of mechanical failure in the Corolla? We can't make that thing die. It's never been in the shop. Its even on it's original 12v battery and just got it's first set of new tires last year. I hate it because my significant other boasts about it. I don't like the way it drives personally. She thinks its the best car in the world.
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