TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

Prediction: M3 will have Autopilot standard

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by cdub, Mar 28, 2016.

  1. cdub

    cdub Future Model 3 owner

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2014
    Messages:
    176
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    I predict that with the Model 3 autopilot will be standard on all Tesla's. And by the time the 3 comes out onramp to exit autonomy will be functional.

    This is my thoughts after test driving the Model S recently. The rep said she would be shocked if the 3 didn't have autopilot because that's what they're promoting all the time with the S. (She has no insider knowledge of the 3)

    The cost for autopilot hardware can't be that much anymore.

    This would be as much of a game changer as the free cross country supercharging.
     
    • Like x 1
  2. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2013
    Messages:
    2,967
    Location:
    Delaware
    I would bet that all Model 3's will be upgradeable to full Autopilot - it is certainly too much of a Tesla selling point for them to ignore it.

    At the same time, making a profit on a 200+ mile EV at $35k is going to be rather difficult next year - I'd bet against all Model 3's having Autopilot as a standard feature enabled by default. They might have the hardware, or even that might upgradeable instead - but Tesla needs profit from options more than they need standard features to drive demand at the moment, so I'd bet on it being an option, at least on the $35k version.
    Walter
     
    • Like x 1
  3. rnelsonee

    rnelsonee Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2016
    Messages:
    95
    Location:
    Maryland
    I think autopilot hardware will be standard, as it's not terribly expensive (camera, radar, two sonars, servos for throttle/steering) and would be a pain to retrofit, and even with no AP activated, Tesla can still sell traffic aware cruise control as standard.

    But I think it's too much of a moneymaker to make standard. Instead, I'd guess it's a $2500 option you can enable just like you do now ("Yes, I would like a hat, a shirt, and...let's add Autopilot for a few thousand to my cart). That way, people who are price-sensitive buy the Model 3 with no AP, but Tesla will still get plenty of money from those who do want it. And the cool thing is when someone sells the car off, the new owner can just click a button and get autopilot, so Tesla still makes money on it then.
     
    • Like x 1
  4. cdub

    cdub Future Model 3 owner

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2014
    Messages:
    176
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    They'll have the hardware certainly... Tesla isn't going to miss out on the chance of having 100k cars mapping out the world and improving autonomous driving.

    But I think it'll be enabled on standard just like they did with the supercharging after a while as it is one with the Tesla brand now.

    Autopilot is another game changer that Tesla has for the automobile and they want it everywhere. IMO
     
  5. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2012
    Messages:
    2,136
    Location:
    Santa Cruz, CA
    Except they still charge extra for it on both the Model S and the Model X. If they intended to make it free that would be the place where they would start.
     
  6. HookBill

    HookBill Member

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2015
    Messages:
    395
    Location:
    The OC, CA
    As long as we are all speculating, my speculation is the M3 will have AP as an option, similar to today's MS and MX. However, in a way to differentiate the M3 from the MS and MX, Tesla will make AP a freebie for the more expensive S & X. Perhaps not this year, but in following years.
     
  7. cdub

    cdub Future Model 3 owner

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2014
    Messages:
    176
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    They'd obviously make it standard on S and X too.
     
  8. Colsla

    Colsla Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2015
    Messages:
    156
    Location:
    Vancouver, BC, Canada
    like a couple of people wrote above, I strongly believe the hardware will come installed, but not the software. It's easy money for Tesla to just 'flip the switch' and make 2500 USD (3000~3300 in CAD).
    Unless at some point in the future driver assistane becomes standard like back up camera will be in 2017, Tesla will continue to charge money for it.
     
  9. cdub

    cdub Future Model 3 owner

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2014
    Messages:
    176
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    Supercharging was a $3000 option... now it's standard.

    I still think it'll be standard on all cars once the 3 is released.
     
  10. Colsla

    Colsla Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2015
    Messages:
    156
    Location:
    Vancouver, BC, Canada
    fair point. I think it's standard in a way that it's built into the battery price. I dont own a model s and have only followed Tesla for a couple of years now, so I dont know what was the price hike from 60kwh to 70kwh. But I think Tesla just included the cost of supercharging in the 70 kwh battery.

    But of course, I would LOVE it if it came as a standard :). I will be kind of stretching my finances to buy a model S and EV credit may not last until the Model 3 comes out here in BC.
     
    • Like x 1
  11. hoang51

    hoang51 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2013
    Messages:
    400
    Location:
    NoVA
    In the current state, autopilot will not be standard because the higher luxury vehicles such as Model S and Model X have autopilot as options. Does not make sense to have it as standard if Model S and Model X are charging it as an option. Furthermore, having it standard on a Model 3 would seriously hamper the effort of introducing a Model 3 with a base price of $35K. Maybe by 2017, things may change, but no way would it be a wise business decision to make autopilot standard on a Model 3.
     
  12. cdub

    cdub Future Model 3 owner

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2014
    Messages:
    176
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    Maybe people are misunderstanding my prediction... I think Autopilot will be a standard option on ALL Tesla Models with the Model 3.

    Supercharging was an expensive $3k option and now it is standard for all Tesla models and is a huge selling point and branding behind Tesla.

    Autopilot will eventually follow suit and become standard I believe with the launch of the Model 3.

    I also believe that the Model 3 will launch with on-ramp to exit autopilot abilities... even further bowing the competition out of the water.

    He's got 2 years (almost) until the Model 3 rolls out of the factory... that's more than enough time for Autopilot to get there in capabilities.

    Just like Supercharging... Autopilot will be heavily embedded into the Tesla ecosystem and way of thinking and it will be yet another way that Tesla will upend the current state of the auto industry.
     
  13. cdub

    cdub Future Model 3 owner

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2014
    Messages:
    176
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    I don't think so... the Autopilot hardware isn't that expensive. (comparatively)
     
  14. hoang51

    hoang51 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2013
    Messages:
    400
    Location:
    NoVA
    Do not confuse with having autopilot hardware installed vs. having autopilot software fully activated. We already know that Tesla Motors have included autopilot hardware with the option to fully enable it after delivery for about $2,500. See here: Elon, Take the Wheel! We Test Tesla’s New Autopilot Feature
    Therefore, it will not be a standard, but an option.
     
  15. cdub

    cdub Future Model 3 owner

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2014
    Messages:
    176
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    There's no reason that it couldn't be standard.... again supercharging was once not standard and now it is. Just because something is a certain way now doesn't mean that it always will be.

    If they're already including it in all cars there it isn't a huge jump to go ahead and make it standard just like supercharging.
     
  16. vwtodd

    vwtodd Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2012
    Messages:
    19
    Location:
    Cazenovia, NY
    Let
    's take it further; Tesla will never build another car - including the ones currently coming off the line - that does not have autopilot hardware installed. It goes well beyond whether or not a customer wants it on their car. Think of leases, for starters. If an off-lease car is purchased and kept for another 7+ years, how out out of date will it be without autopilot?

    Elon has said that cars without autopilot will be like horses. You'll own one just for nostalgia. I don't think that Tesla wants to be seen as a nostalgic brand as early as 2022 (or so).
     
  17. Buckeye2320

    Buckeye2320 Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2015
    Messages:
    151
    Location:
    Chicago, IL
    Autopilot will not be standard. The hardware will be on the car, but just like the S and the X, you have to pay to have it enabled. The 3 will be no different. This is the same with BMW, MB, Audi etc. They package the cars with different options and you pay for those options.

    I can't see Tesla telling a 35K car buyers that they can have AutoPilot free, before they give it to Model S/X car buyers who are paying 2x the cost for their cars.
     
    • Like x 1
  18. cdub

    cdub Future Model 3 owner

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2014
    Messages:
    176
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    We'll see on the 31st... actually maybe not... maybe they won't announce it until the car is released...

    but... I think that by the time the Model 3 rolls out of the Tesla factory for it's first deliveries in 2 years.... autopilot will be standard on ALL TESLAS and they'll have on-ramp to off-ramp capabilities with autopilot.

    :)
     
  19. Kenypowa

    Kenypowa Member

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2015
    Messages:
    92
    Location:
    Calgary, AB
    Tesla is not a traditional automaker. What's going to set Tesla Model 3 apart from BMW 3 series and Audi A4 (other than being an EV and Supercharge capable) will be the Autopilot.

    Since Tesla basically confirms Model S (and X?) price and go up after Model 3 unveil, it is plausible that Model S and X will have Autopilot standard. This is what they have done with Supercharger capability: at first it is optional, then they made it standard by jacking up the price.

    I'm not sure Supercharger will be included in the pricing for the base Model 3. But if Tesla makes autopilot standard on the Model 3, it will make this car miles ahead of its main competitors. It will be by far the best $35k car on the market.
     
    • Like x 1
  20. DeusExMachinist

    DeusExMachinist New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 26, 2016
    Messages:
    4
    Location:
    PDX
    Perhaps in 2 years autopilot will be standard, and something closer to full autonomy will be the paid option.
     

Share This Page