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Prediction: Model 3 Orders to reach 100k in 24 hours

mhpr262

Member
Sep 19, 2012
423
78
Old Europe
Except that reservations are non-transferable to the spouse, kid, mom, grandpa, nanny, dog walker, etc.

AFAIK the reservations are non-tranferable WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION by Tesla. I am pretty sure such a permission will be granted at least for family members. At least I can't imagine why it wouldn't.
 
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tga

Supporting Member
Apr 8, 2014
3,866
2,678
New Hampshire
Except that reservations are non-transferable to the spouse, kid, mom, grandpa, nanny, dog walker, etc.
Incorrect, you can certainly transfer reservations to at least your spouse.
I debated leaving out "spouse" from the reply, but then I figured I'd leave the full list. I don't know if anyone has transferred to a spouse, but it's certainly easy enough to do after purchase at the state level. My wife and I have transferred cars back and forth for various reasons.

AFAIK the reservations are non-tranferable WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION by Tesla. I am pretty sure such a permission will be granted at least for family members. At least I can't imagine why it wouldn't.
Maybe. Maybe not. Unless anyone says they definitely didn't, I wouldn't rely on making it happen. Certainly transfers to the nanny and the dog walker would be out. ;)
 

DrManhattan

Member
Nov 1, 2014
252
128
Los Angeles
AFAIK the reservations are non-tranferable WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION by Tesla. I am pretty sure such a permission will be granted at least for family members. At least I can't imagine why it wouldn't.
They are transferable to spouse, they made that clear. I didn't ask about any other family members, but I don't think it would be a problem.
 

nativewolf

Member
Jul 21, 2015
647
1,196
viena va United States
Update: I'm going to go out on another limb... 250k orders in 24 hours...
The demand at stores I think beat everyones expectations!!!! Probably ~80,000 orders from the stores alone.
I really can't imagine how many people will be reserving tonight (We are!)... but I think we are really at a turning point...
This will be the day that changed Tesla forever.
Ok, just to recognize a winner. CLPRENZ made a bold prediction. He was off by a bit but, maybe by the end of tonight. 200k was just passed. Hard to believe they won't get the 250k by the end of the weekend. I had jested with him a bit but, man he was right.
 

EinSV

Active Member
Feb 6, 2016
4,318
21,364
NorCal
Update: I'm going to go out on another limb... 250k orders in 24 hours...
The demand at stores I think beat everyones expectations!!!! Probably ~80,000 orders from the stores alone.
I really can't imagine how many people will be reserving tonight (We are!)... but I think we are really at a turning point...
This will be the day that changed Tesla forever.

Based on the reservation rate so far today, I think you may win the Tesla soothsayer of the year award!
 
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nwdiver

Well-Known Member
Feb 17, 2013
7,459
9,477
United States
Saw this posted on Facebook ROFLMAO

Fry and Elon.jpg
 

ggnykk

Active Member
Feb 7, 2016
1,573
737
Earth
Funny, but they do need one in Europe and another in China. Which will they build first?
I really hope that they build one in Europe instead of China. Factory in China is going to suck big time in terms of quality. Chinese people actually don't like to buy anything that is produced in China because it is always perceived as low quality, cheap, and break easily. Anything from overseas can attract significantly more demand and premium.
 

lklundin

Active Member
Oct 10, 2014
2,918
19,579
Bavaria
6 reservations ... I'm all in as a vote of confidence.

Since the interest rate on my savings account it practically zero I placed a reservation, just as a show of support for a true visionary who is transforming our world into something better.

I think I am number 150.000 +/- 30.000 and figure delivery in 2019. I currently have 280.000 km on my 8-cylinder Audi, so by then I might need a new car. And the only car that comes into consideration would also need to have AWD and aluminum body, apart from being a BEV. Still hoping for a quad motor Model S though.

Going a bit OT here, but what is the maximum battery capacity that we can expect on any Tesla model?

Once the typical driver can drive a whole day, then there is little point in paying for (and thus producing) a higher capacity battery. But here in Germany, one day of driving can mean 1000 km about half of which is without speed limit - which can really raise the needed capacity for a single day's driving...
 

hcsharp

Active Member
Jun 7, 2011
3,370
1,337
Vermont
Major props to Clprenz! Very few could have imagined how big 3/31 would be for Tesla. I think it even took most people in the company by surprise.
Actually some of us predicted as good or better than him BEFORE we saw lines forming at the stores.
You all are way underestimating. It will be well over 100k in 24 hrs. In the other thread on this subject I guessed about 300k.
It depends on when you start counting the beginning of the first 24 hours. I was thinking it started when the stores opened on the East Coast of the US. I didn't think reservations would start down-under before then. 24 hrs starting at 10AM Eastern time US my prediction was more accurate than any I've seen in this thread. And that prediction was made several days ago. Just sayin'.:D

Another fairly close prediction if you use the 5% figure and assume 24hrs:
I agree it probably has a strong self-selecting bias but does that change the significance of the poll? In a few hours they have over 10,000 people voting yes they will make a deposit. I'll make a wild guess that poll represents about 2 - 5% of people who will be actually making a deposit.
 
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Red Sage

The Cybernetic Samurai
Jul 6, 2014
3,033
2,121
Los Angeles CA
Going a bit OT here, but what is the maximum battery capacity that we can expect on any Tesla model?
I believe that JB Straubel and Elon Musk would like to make sure that some day the typical entry-level electric vehicle would have 'enough' range. So the battery capacity would be sized so that they could build as many vehicles as possible that achieve that goal. Still, there may always be high end options for superior range at a Premium. Tesla Motors still has to combat those who look at the theoretical maximum range of a car like an AUDI A8L Diesel or Toyota Prius, for instance. Ultimately, for most people, when they are able to achieve a range of between 300 and 350 miles during any weather conditions without feathering the pedal while only using about 70% of the battery capacity, they will be happy.

I would like to see a situation where the priority becomes thoroughly embarrassing ICE vehicles though. Making it so that even the most efficient ICE would need a 50 gallon fuel tank to achieve even half the range of a typical BEV. I believe that may well happen within the next 20 years or so.
 
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