Prediction: Model 3 Orders to reach 100k in 24 hours

[HankLloydRight]

50,000 in the first week, 60,000 in the first month, 70,000 in the first year (net of cancellations)..

That's about what I'd predict, maybe even a little less. These predictions of 100k cars in hours are nutz.

 

[gregincal]

You all are way underestimating. It will be well over 100k in 24 hrs. In the other thread on this subject I guessed about 300k.

Whereas I'm guessing 10-25K.

 

[ELRev]

I started in the "100k in 24 hours is crazy" camp, but the more I think about it, the more I realize maybe it isn't. You have to figure that a significant percentage of current Tesla owners will put their money down right away, because why not. We've already heard that a number of employees have reserved theirs. There's also at least a few hundred, if not a few thousand, of us on this forum who plan to reserve one right away. Then there's the other 7 billion people on this planet who might see a CNN or Mashable article on Twitter or Facebook on the days leading up to the event, the day of, or even the morning of April 1 and think "Why not?" That number could climb really quickly, especially once people know it's fully refundable.

Only time will tell, but it's certainly possible...

 

[UKayla]

The other day, I would have thought the numbers would be staggering. Had a conversation that made me much less sure.

I am SUPER excited about the Model 3. When the news first came out about the reservation I idly thought "oh that would be amazing to get" and then over the next few days realized there was no reason I couldn't plan things out and be ready to get it in two years (or more). Yes the waiting sucks but it gives me time to prepare financially. I wanted a vehicle at the end of this year, but I can make do and waiting will put me in a much better position - and what's worth waiting for more than a Tesla? Once I realized that I was all in and now I'm obsessive.

Contrast that with my friend. When I tweeted about reserving my Tesla she got really excited and said oh I want the cheaper one. Then she said "I don't know what it's called or if they've released it yet." Now, she's a super intelligent person, so that just shows me she hasn't looked into the process at all and has no idea how long it will actually take to get the car. If she did I think she would be in line right behind me next week.

it's easy to think that everyone must be chomping at the bit like we are. But there are a lot of people out there who are potentially interested and haven't taken the time to educate themselves yet and therefore won't be reserving next week. I wouldn't be surprised if many of those potential customers would look at the projected timeline and go elsewhere because they needed or wanted something sooner. So I agree with the idea that the overall number of reservations will remain pretty level after the initial rush.

 

[gregincal]

It may be refundable, but it's still $1000. Most people don't have that sitting around wondering what they're going to do with it. And not using up that $1000 means that they will just need to wait a little longer (especially outside the US, where you don't even have the government rebate speculation).

 

[cwerdna]

Only 35% of people on a Nissan forum are in the "won't reserve" camp? That's a surprisingly low number. It will be very interesting to see what the actual number is, assuming it's announced.

Actually, the response rate to the poll was VERY low. There were only 73 responses.

MNL has over 16K users. Yeah yeah, most of them are likely inactive. Unfortunately, I don't have any stats as to the # of active unique users each week or month, but I suspect it's much more than 73.

 

[eye.surgeon]

It will be interesting to revisit this thread in 2 weeks. People are overlooking some realities here--

1. American mainstream car shoppers are used to buying off the lot. The idea of waiting 18 months will immediately eliminate most buyers. Until Tesla has inventory on a lot for same-day sale, they will never sell accord or camry numbers.

2. The service center build-out is woefully inadequate for a mainstream car. Average buyers do not buy cars without a local dealer/service department. By the time the M3 hits the bamboo floor Tesla will have moved to a traditional dealership model. There's simply no way around it for high volume sales to average buyers.

3. A $35k M3 will be about as common as a $70k MS. Which is to say, non-existent.

There will be a lot of early adapters and switchers from Prius/Leaf/Volt and a few sales cannibalized from the Model S. Joe Mainstream will not be ordering this month. 100,000 in the first week? LOL. No way.

 

[cwerdna]

I do not think that poll says what you think it says.

Perhaps it was bad placement of sentences. My opinion of 100K "orders"/$1K reservations or whatever within 24 hours being too high is unrelated to the poll on MNL.

The poll on MNL was just more an of FYI.

 

[calisnow]

That's about what I'd predict, maybe even a little less. These predictions of 100k cars in hours are nutz.

I dunno man. I would've agreed with you but I now have four non-early adopter, non-Tesla owning friends putting down deposits on day one:

1 - 48 y/o philosophy professor who drives an old Accord and who has never, as long as I've known him, bought anything flashy, high tech or showy.
2 - 39 y/o Prius driving iT consultant who has also never bought any car remotely sporty.
3 - 38 y/o endocrinologist who is still driving the Honda Civic he bought in undergrad 17 years ago.
4 - 38 y/o psychiatrist who is driving the Infiniti G35 he purchased 12 years ago.

I am pretty surprised.

Oh, and there's myself - I already purchased a 2016 70D, have another Model S on order (may switch it to the X) - and am putting in a deposit the morning of the 31st. I don't even know why I'm doing it! I never do pre-orders for anything. I don't need a Model 3. But there's just this sense that this is some kind of historic moment. I think people are getting caught up in it and the wave could be bigger than we expect.

 

[ELRev]

It may be refundable, but it's still $1000. Most people don't have that sitting around wondering what they're going to do with it. And not using up that $1000 means that they will just need to wait a little longer (especially outside the US, where you don't even have the government rebate speculation).

A new iPhone costs about that much these days. Apple sells millions of those in a day. I know those people actually have something to take home with them and use on the spot, but you could consider your RN as your take-home. Obviously Tesla won't take in millions of reservations, but some small percentage of such a number isn't out of the question.

I had a conversation with a friend today that likened the core demographic for Teslas to that of iPhone. Typical "car guys/gals" aren't going to line up next week to put a deposit down. My non-car guy friend joked that they're more concerned with "engine size and motor oil." I know a lot more people in my life who keep track of new iPhone releases rather than new releases from top ICE car manufacturers. That's not to say Tesla has nearly the following that Apple does, but it's not crazy to think people would be willing to put $1000 aside for a chance to be part of the wave of the future. 100,000 isn't THAT much.

 

[McHoffa]

I just don't think that many people have $1000 to put down on a car they won't be able to drive for nearly two years (or longer for base model). Not only that, but unless you're one of us on this forum (or other Tesla enthusiasts), you probably don't even know about the reservation process. It's when they're on the streets and people find out they can afford one that sales will skyrocket.

 

[Yuri_G]

We still have a little over a week and the hype is getting a little crazy here. I'm guessing mainstream media will pick up the story heading into the 31st and then during/after the reveal the the photos of lines at stores will be posted all over the internet. 10k in store reservations should be possible. 100k online reservations sounds like a lot, but good word of mouth over the web could push it over that, easily. A good analogy to the 3 reveal/reservation day is a video game console launch. People like to be on the bleeding edge and will stand in line for new tech.

 

[calisnow]

Also if Elon makes some wild promises at the evening reveal - such as Autopilot 2.0 included at no extra charge in the base $35K Model 3 - that could drive online reservations through the roof.

If you think about it - he could do it. The sensors are cheap. The software development has been done already. The high precision maps will have been built out by the S's and X's on the road.

The marginal cost to put in autopilot in the 3 is very little at this point. So maybe it will be an option but a cheap one - $500 or $1,000 instead of $2,500 on the S.

Nobody else in the industry will be able to touch this level of autopilot quality in 2017 except maybe Mercedes.

 

[Kenypowa]

Also if Elon makes some wild promises at the evening reveal - such as Autopilot 2.0 included at no extra charge in the base $35K Model 3 - that could drive online reservations through the roof.

If you think about it - he could do it. The sensors are cheap. The software development has been done already. The high precision maps will have been built out by the S's and X's on the road.

The marginal cost to put in autopilot in the 3 is very little at this point. So maybe it will be an option but a cheap one - $500 or $1,000 instead of $2,500 on the S.

Nobody else in the industry will be able to touch this level of autopilot quality in 2017 except maybe Mercedes.

That is actually plausible. The latest rumour is that Model S and X price is going up after the Model 3 unveil.

In the past, Tesla increased the prices by having a bigger battery pack, adding dual motor, and ability to supercharge.

So this case, maybe a $5K price bump on the Model S and Model X with 100 kW battery pack and Autopilot 2 included.

 

[Bimbels]

There are a LOT of MS/X owners ready to reserve 2-4 cars on the 31st. Many are ordering 1 (like me, since we want a second tesla but don't want 2 huge cars and don't want 2 $75k+ cars.) They've said it in threads on the Tesla forum, anyway. I am guessing just with the employees and the current owners it will be 60k minimum - and I wouldn't be surprised if it were actually higher. Then figure in those who have been waiting for years, like many on this forum - or those who maybe haven't been waiting for years but who have been wanting to make the leap to electric with real range and a price they can afford...I do think total numbers could approach 100k at least in the first week.

I also do think there are a lot more people than some here think who indeed have $1k to throw around just to get in what will be a very long line - and longer if they don't.

What the actual conversion is however is another story.

 

[Skotty]

News maybe a week after the reveal -- headlines read "Telsa Model 3 a failure -- only 893,000 reservations, well short of the expected 2.5 million. Can Tesla remain in business thanks to loopholes in Obamacare?"

I generally agree with those that say the Model 3 will be successful, but demand and reservations will grow gradually.

 

[pekap]

While I think it's unlikely, it would be interesting to throw extra incentive in at the unveiling, such as free AP and Supercharger access for first 100k reservations. Would create a huge buzz for fairly low-cost add-ons. This would effectively make your early reservation "free" or better even when considering lost investment income from reserving with $1,000 cash outlay.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I posted at JB Straubel- Model 3 will be mostly NEW technology when they hit $1.8 billion in accumulated losses. There's no way you can characterize all of that loss as "investment". You can look at their their most recent SEC filings at Tesla Motors - Annual Report to get an idea where the money is going.

Any new business will run at a loss for the first few years. It's just the way things work.

But you have to look beyond the current losses and see the future profits. And to get from here to there you need to be willing to lose some money.

 

[Yggdrasill]

It will be interesting to revisit this thread in 2 weeks. People are overlooking some realities here--

1. American mainstream car shoppers are used to buying off the lot. The idea of waiting 18 months will immediately eliminate most buyers. Until Tesla has inventory on a lot for same-day sale, they will never sell accord or camry numbers.

Tesla isn't planning on selling Accord or Camry numbers. We're talking about BMW 3-series numbers. Maybe we'll see Tesla add some inventory at strategic locations.

2. The service center build-out is woefully inadequate for a mainstream car. Average buyers do not buy cars without a local dealer/service department. By the time the M3 hits the bamboo floor Tesla will have moved to a traditional dealership model. There's simply no way around it for high volume sales to average buyers.

Dealerships don't help. You still need to set up service centers, train staff, etc, and the dealership model doesn't help in that regard. Tesla clearly needs to increase the number of service centers, though.

3. A $35k M3 will be about as common as a $70k MS. Which is to say, non-existent.

Agree. The 35k USD Model 3 will be about as common as a 33k USD BMW 3-series.

There will be a lot of early adapters and switchers from Prius/Leaf/Volt and a few sales cannibalized from the Model S. Joe Mainstream will not be ordering this month. 100,000 in the first week? LOL. No way.

Tesla has a lot of fans who can't comfortably afford the Model S or X. Myself included. These fans will be lining up at the stores, and watching the unveiling online. If we assume there are five Model 3-buying fans for every Model S sold, that's about half a million people who are ready to get the Model 3.

You sound pretty unconvinced, but like you say, we'll know in a couple of weeks.

 

[cwerdna]

Any new business will run at a loss for the first few years. It's just the way things work.

But you have to look beyond the current losses and see the future profits. And to get from here to there you need to be willing to lose some money.

Sure, your first statement is true of most businesses, but per About Tesla | Tesla Motors, Tesla was founded in 2003. I'd call it well beyond "first few years" now.