It will be interesting to revisit this thread in 2 weeks. People are overlooking some realities here--
Yeah. And one of those harsh realities will be the overwhelming amount of support that exists for Tesla Motors.
1. American mainstream car shoppers are used to buying off the lot. The idea of waiting 18 months will immediately eliminate most buyers. Until Tesla has inventory on a lot for same-day sale, they will never sell accord or camry numbers.
The Accord and Camry are the perennial leaders of the midsize new car sales charts in the US. They are each built by companies that have an overall capacity of millions of units worldwide. In particular, Toyota is among a very few manufacturers that approach or surpass 10,000,000 units worldwide, every year. It will be a very long time before Tesla Motors is able to compete directly, head-to-head with the Camry or Accord. So, they chose the next best target.
The BMW 3-Series is the perennial leader of the compact entry level luxury car sales charts in the US. Before the company decided to separate 3-Series sales from 4-Series sales totals in the middle of 2015, its sales exceeded even the Toyota Prius in the US. Even so, in 2015 the 3-Series outsold the first five years of Chevrolet VOLT totals combined -- in 2015 alone. Among passenger cars, the 3-Series is the single best selling premium brand vehicle in the US -- and the WORLD.
Elon Musk and Tesla Motors have been consistent in stating their intent to target the BMW 3-Series with their Generation III vehicles since at least 2012. So, expecting them to instead go after the Accord or Camry is completely inaccurate. Almost as if you expect the Model ≡ to be manufactured in Fremont for Sale in the US alone.
2. The service center build-out is woefully inadequate for a mainstream car. Average buyers do not buy cars without a local dealer/service department. By the time the M3 hits the bamboo floor Tesla will have moved to a traditional dealership model. There's simply no way around it for high volume sales to average buyers.
Perhaps you have not noticed that multiple States have been actively blocking or outright banning Tesla Motors' preferred means of doing business? Some have even tried to prevent the installation of Superchargers. Service Centers remain banned in States like Michigan. While other States only grudgingly allow a Tesla Gallery, instead of a Tesla Store... And at least one demands that the entire Service Manual be made publicly available to every
'independent shop' in the entire State -- even if they have no interest in servicing them. So, please... Don't act as if any apparent 'inadequacy' is due to Tesla Motors themselves. They are fighting a long, up hill battle against established players who are working hard to prevent their progression.
There is absolutely NO reason for Tesla Motors to move to today's version of
'independent franchised dealerships'. There is no advantage for them whatsoever to do so. The bulk of Tesla Customers aren't likely to be
'average' buyers for another decade. The very nature of the electric car is that it requires study and forethought to make an informed purchasing decision. Walk-ins, and impulse buyers will NOT be their primary Customers for years.
NADA is perfectly aware that the Tesla Motors direct sales model will work just fine. That is why they are working so hard to prevent it becoming the success it is destined to be. They have changed the law in some States, like New Jersey and Michigan, then claimed that Tesla Motors should just
'play by the rules' like
'everyone else'. They never admit that
'the rules' had previously been specific to those who already had franchise agreements, and did NOT mandate that using franchises was the sole means of selling new cars. And, in the midst of solidifying a state of monopoly for themselves for new car sales, by
'clarifying the law', the
'independent franchised dealerships' simultaneously accuse Tesla Motors of having a
'monopoly' on sales!
There are only two ways that Tesla Motors will submit to the
'independent franchised dealership' system:
1) States relent, and allow for new car franchises to be governed the same way as franchises from other businesses, such as restaurant chains. Elon has already stated that if he had the level of control that McDonald's can exercise over its franchises, he'd be happy to craft something to his liking. Unfortunately, most States specifically separate franchise laws for other companies from those that sell cars -- on purpose -- so that such an arrangement would be patently illegal.
2) Tesla Motors loses a suit at the Federal level that yields a court order that they absolutely cannot sell direct to anyone, anywhere in the US because they are a manufacturer of automobiles.
You also overlook that Tesla Motors has chosen not to use their Service Centers as a profit center. Meanwhile, a large percentage of profit at an
'independent franchised dealership' comes from their Service Department. The way current franchise law works, if Tesla Motors were to ask that their franchises NOT make a profit from Service it would be considered
'unusual' and on those grounds alone the request could be denied, or flat out ignored.
3. A $35k M3 will be about as common as a $70k MS. Which is to say, non-existent.
Sure. Unless you drive a taxi, or municipal law enforcement vehicle, or rental car. Because the Model ≡ will definitely be plentiful in those fleets. The substantial reduction in operational costs will make the car very popular for such applications. Move over Prius! There's a new Green Car in town...
There will be a lot of early adapters and switchers from Prius/Leaf/Volt and a few sales cannibalized from the Model S. Joe Mainstream will not be ordering this month. 100,000 in the first week? LOL. No way.
Yours seems to be a point of view that is seriously skewed toward US Customers. I do expect that perhaps 60% to 80% of initial Model ≡ Reservations may be to people in the US, during the first 24-48 hours. And I expect over the course of a week to a month that will change to be only about 40% of total Reservations.
As soon as Tesla decides to stop growing for awhile, we will very quickly start seeing profits for Tesla, and everyone will be confused. There will be investigations and congressional hearings to figure out how Tesla suddenly became profitable.
If the base version of the Model ≡ has a 100 kWh battery pack capacity, General Motors will accuse them of
'technology dumping'.
I would guess maybe 25,000 reservations in the first couple of days, but I would also guess Tesla won't disclose the numbers and we will never really know.
There is probably some minimum number, maybe 50,000 or so, whereby Elon would decide to make an announcement. I would guess it would be done in a manner that paraphrases Sally Field...
"Wow. You like us! You really, really like us!" Then give the number.
I actually think someone is going to hand Elon the global day 1 numbers, and if they're good, you'll hear them at the event on the evening of the 31st.
Exactly.
