Prediction: Model 3 reservation crush will spark Supercharger competition

[calisnow]

This is my serious prediction - the unexpected crush of 230,000 (and growing) Model 3 reservations and the painful sight of people literally lining up to plonk down money on a car they had never seen has most likely finally, truly, really woken up the auto industry to the necessity of competing with Tesla's rapid charging network.

I would guess in the days ahead group meetings will be held with the heads of multiple auto companies coming together and fast-tracking development of some kind of rapid charging standard to compete with Tesla.

I predict that March 31 will be a watershed date in the automotive industry and that the sleeping giants are now going to truly stop kicking the football around and build their own network.

We will see a press announcement of a competitive network from a consortium of auto companies less than 12 months from now, if not sooner.

I predict it won't be a half assed effort involving dealership locations, 7-11's, or other nonsense.

It will be a direct competitor network aimed straight at Tesla and its "big sell" to consumers will be that it will service many brands of cars.

The industry must be in full panic mode at this point.

Audi's chief of BEV's said they have to get on the stick two weeks ago and come together to build a network - and that was before the crazy rush of Model 3 orders outstripped everyone's predictions.

 

[jct_4628]

I can see your point of view and I think it is definitely a possibility. While I do think the major companies will have to build some sort of network to compete with Tesla, I think it WILL be at dealerships, and I think we will continue to see more and more of the same old bull. Franchise dealers don't want electric because the repair profits aren't there. I think it will still take years for a market wide competition to Tesla. Sure, the Bolt will be here soon..and there is the Leaf and the Volt...but before most or all of the manufacturers have not just one, but a trim package for most of their cars that is full electric will still be years from now.

IMO I think going away with the franchise dealership laws would fast track this a bit as the big companies could put up corporate locations and do things differently. Time will tell my friend.

 

[DavidM]

Well, it's kinda hard to compete with free. Also, while a competing fast charge infrastructure could build out fairly quickly if the majors all cooperated with each other, they still don't have long range BEVs that are all capable of using the same fast charging standard. And if one major automaker defects and buys their way into the Tesla supercharger network, that would change the landscape. Maybe the majors will all just make better plug-in hybrids (which is what I think they intend to do). Look at GM Volt 2, BMW, Toyota, etc.

 

[RDoc]

I'm not at all sure of that. When foreign makers like Honda started coming into the US, the "Big 3" viewed them as alternatives to used cars and decided to wait for their demise. For highly paid corporate bureaucrats, the safe answer is almost always to ignore the outside world and keep on doing the same thing.

 

[Vince Cobelo]

I agree with OP. The problem for the legacy OEMs is that the cost of real estate at Tesla SC "like" locations will skyrocket. Tesla can expand stalls within current locations to some degree. I'd bet they bought into parking spots with options to get more at the same price. If they didn't then that would be stupid which TMC is not.

Dealer locations don't work. They suck. There is nothing to do. Can't eat, shop or have a drink. Just surf the internet, use the bathroom and charge at all of maybe 30mph. The OEMs are screwed and they know it.

IF TMC can do what Musk said and that is double SC locations/stalls and service centers then they are the gem. Dealerships will see the writing on the wall and so will the OEMs. The only value of a dealer is to pack the supply chain with cars at the appropriate time so that legacy OEMs can recognize revenue (I was a big part of this in the computer industry when HP, IBM were forced by Dell to disintermediate (get rid of) traditional stock distributors) whether it is loaners or under floor planning inventory. Death to dealers that won't evolve and shame on state and local governments trying to impede progress which is simply not possible.

 

[BriansTesla]

I really don't see why manufacturers don't throw in with Tesla and their Superchargers. What is the downside? A little pride swallowing?

 

[Tree95]

would guess in the days ahead group meetings will be held with the heads of multiple auto companies coming together and fast-tracking development of some kind of rapid charging standard to compete with Tesla.

I predict that March 31 will be a watershed date in the automotive industry and that the sleeping giants are now going to truly stop kicking the football around and build their own network.

There already are two rapid charging standards deployed in the USA. Are you aware there are more CHAdeMO charger locations in the US than Tesla Supercharger locations by nearly a factor of ten? That's entirely thanks to the Nissan Leaf which has a CHAdeMO fast charge option. Nissan isn't paying for this network. I have the Tesla CHADeMO adapter and have charged at CHAdeMO stations multiple times when off the supercharger network.

Most new CHAdeMO stations are dual standard and also have a CCSCombo connector, too. The Americans (bolt) and germans (bmw i3) are going with CCSCombo for fast DC charging.

The other car companies have no need to build a fast charger network, others are doing it for them. Yeah, it's haphazard for now. Billing can be a hassle. Yeah, most CHAdeMO chargers in service are only half the power that the standard allows. That will all change with demand.

Meanwhile Tesla is having to spend its own money to build a proprietary charging network. That's been awesome for me (33,000 miles in a year, 2/3rds traveling mostly on the sc network), it's costing Tesla a lot of money. So far, great.

Im not sure why people think other car companies have to build their own charging networks when it's already happening.

 

[johnnyS]

Tesla's competitors in 5-10 years will be Google, Apple, and Faraday Future. Several of the legacy ICE manufacturers will fail when we get to the tipping point for electric transporation. Several will adapt. At the moment BMW and Nissan look like they will adapt.

 

[WarpedOne]

You left out the main two: LG and Samsung.
Both of them are already in battery and car business.

 

[Alex D]

I am not quite as good informed than most of you, so please excuse me for being a little "blonde" here...

As far as I understand, Elon Musk is not holding patents on his technologies, correct? So why don't other car manufacturers jump on the Tesla bandwagon? They could use the existing technology and just put their spin on it and then also jump on the Supercharger bandwagon and support the extension worldwide.

Am I wrong for thinking that way? Please, educate me

 

[techmaven]

There already are two rapid charging standards deployed in the USA. Are you aware there are more CHAdeMO charger locations in the US than Tesla Supercharger locations by nearly a factor of ten? That's entirely thanks to the Nissan Leaf which has a CHAdeMO fast charge option. Nissan isn't paying for this network. I have the Tesla CHADeMO adapter and have charged at CHAdeMO stations multiple times when off the supercharger network.

Most new CHAdeMO stations are dual standard and also have a CCSCombo connector, too. The Americans (bolt) and germans (bmw i3) are going with CCSCombo for fast DC charging.

The other car companies have no need to build a fast charger network, others are doing it for them. Yeah, it's haphazard for now. Billing can be a hassle. Yeah, most CHAdeMO chargers in service are only half the power that the standard allows. That will all change with demand.

Meanwhile Tesla is having to spend its own money to build a proprietary charging network. That's been awesome for me (33,000 miles in a year, 2/3rds traveling mostly on the sc network), it's costing Tesla a lot of money. So far, great.

Im not sure why people think other car companies have to build their own charging networks when it's already happening.

To date, there have been zero 300+ amp DC EVSE's installed for automobiles in the U.S. for consumer use outside the Tesla Supercharger network.

Zero.

At some point, the CCS standard will be revised to handle higher charging rates. As it stands right now, the plug is limited to 200 amps by standard, possibly 250 amps according to Pheonix Contact. At 200 amps and 350 volts, we are talking about 70 kW off a nominal 100 kW EVSE.

It is unclear if anyone is going to bother with moving CHAdeMO to over 200 amps. It is the most likely early casualty, as the primary adherents aren't shipping vehicles that need it anytime soon.

The problem for everyone else is... Who pays for what? Does BMW, Ford or Nissan pay into this charging network without vehicles that can benefit? The costs are very different for 50 kW 1-2 plug locations in cities versus 150 kW 8-16 plug locations set up for long distance travel. Initially, the only vehicles that can even reach some of these plugs are Tesla's. At some point, a few Bolts. Do they push 150 kW if their vehicles cannot use them? Audi is talking about vehicles for 2018 or 2019. Do they build these in advance for say, 10,000 vehicles sold in 2019? Does GM dump $300 million into a CCS 150 kW network and then let BMW use it in 2020? Or the odd i3 that charges at 50 kW off the 150 kW plug? if you look at the financials of the Car Charging Group or NRG's spin off, it is clear there is zero money in DC fast charging.

 

[Vince Cobelo]

There is a ton of money in DC fast charging. It sells cars. Not only is it functional but it is marketing being on every major roadway in public places like malls.

Clearly differentiates TMC from any other. Why would anyone buy a Bolt to go 200 miles to then sit for hours. Don't forget the end game. Autonomous driving. Fleets of Ubers and Lifts will need to charge in minutes not hours. Don't forget how TMC did the recall. Blew the OEMs away by putting techs at the SCs and the doom of seat belt recall was a mere blip. Oh my. The great question asked is why if TMC hasn't patented the technology are others not joining in the expansion. He answered his own question. They are embarrassed and frozen in time.

I think the next step will be DC fast charging in your garage and public places. The Powerwall. is DC. DC dump. No inverter needed into the car. Too expensive now and the technology isn't there but I'm convinced that is the next iteration which will eliminate the months long struggles for permitting and installation of transformers like you see today at SCs. There could be millions of stalls without the cost.

 

[Tree95]

if you look at the financials of the Car Charging Group or NRG's spin off, it is clear there is zero money in DC fast charging.

I think many would say if one looked at the financials of any EV maker, expecially Tesla, there is zero money in EV's. Clearly there is some demand. The money isnt there yet.

But, yet DC charging networks in the US continue to grow.

 

[artsci]

There already are two rapid charging standards deployed in the USA. Are you aware there are more CHAdeMO charger locations in the US than Tesla Supercharger locations by nearly a factor of ten? That's entirely thanks to the Nissan Leaf which has a CHAdeMO fast charge option. Nissan isn't paying for this network. I have the Tesla CHADeMO adapter and have charged at CHAdeMO stations multiple times when off the supercharger network.

IMHO, I don't think CHAdeMO will ever take hold. It's a huge and clumsy Rube Goldberg device and a PIA to set up (I have one and hate to use it). The engineers who designed it must have been on speed -- they could not have designed a more bumbling piece of hardware.

 

[techmaven]

I think many would say if one looked at the financials of any EV maker, expecially Tesla, there is zero money in EV's. Clearly there is some demand. The money isnt there yet.

But, yet DC charging networks in the US continue to grow.

Well, after doing some napkin mathematics a little while ago to investigate that area as a potential investment, definitely the charging itself is likely a big money pit until such time that DC EVSE are available using standards that have long longevity. Even then, the cost is very high and competes with product available at home for very cheap, so location matters a lot in order to achieve scale.

 

[Tree95]

IMHO, I don't think CHAdeMO will ever take hold. It's a huge and clumsy Rube Goldberg device and a PIA to set up (I have one and hate to use it). The engineers who designed it must have been on speed -- they could not have designed a more bumbling piece of hardware.

No question it's a piece of shite. Why are it and CCSCombo so stupidly large compared to Tesla's svelte connector (at least in North America) which handles more current than either of the others.

CHAdeMO seems to have caught on; there is still growth in installations. But, its lifetime does seem limited. The US (non-Tesla) and Germans are going with CCSCombo fast charging. I don't know if Nissan alone can keep CHAdeMO alive in the US. Toyota has fuel cells on the brain, but when they finally figure out that they must do a full EV, what standard will they use in the US market.

 

[dandelot]

Is CCS going to be convenient to pay for or is it going to involve carrying 12 little cards around
(one for each company handling things at ?? stations). Who wants to set up 12 NEW accounts
(and hope these newbies won't lose your credit card info)?

 

[twonius]

Yeah this one really shocked me. Planning a trip with the Bolt from Detroit to Chicago, The last combo plug is in Ann Arbor (240 miles from Chicago).

 

[David_Cary]

My 2 cents on the legacy automakers.

Everyone knows the Kodak story and the Nokia story. Not just here, but every CEO. The auto industry is not the 1970's big three anymore that was shocked by the Japanese automakers. That being said, they are big ships that turn slowly. But they can also do the math and know that battery manufacturing capacity is low and will take decades to become adequate for majority market share of EVs. What do they do in the meantime? Sell ICEs. As someone posted earlier, no one is making real money on EVs. Tesla is doing okay and they are surviving despite enormous capital needs.

If you sold 15 million cars a year and knew what it took to switch to EVs, would you be in any hurry? No. Now - PHEVs is a no brainer especially with the European regulations. The Japanese of course have a hugely limited domestic supply of electricity and that reality distorts everything they do. Has anyone looked what NG costs in Japan - roughly 7x our cost.

The rational auto CEO thing to do is delay delay delay. Even 250,000 votes isn't going to change that. BMW is the only manufacturer that I can see that will be affected in the next 5 years but that is why they are changing quickly. All the big 3 make their money with SUVs and trucks and the Model X doesn't compete with them at all and electrification won't significantly for a decade. And they won't sit still in that decade .

Porsche and Audi - obviously an issue but VW is huge. MB will get hit hard also but the luxury market may give them a pass for a few years more.

I expect announcements to continue and real action to continue to occur slowly. We have no will to raise the gas tax or tax carbon. The Chinese economy and the continued efficiency gains may keep the price of oil in the toilet until we stop using it for good so financially, ICEs still make sense.

 

[sandpiper]

There already are two rapid charging standards deployed in the USA. Are you aware there are more CHAdeMO charger locations in the US than Tesla Supercharger locations by nearly a factor of ten? That's entirely thanks to the Nissan Leaf which has a CHAdeMO fast charge option. Nissan isn't paying for this network. I have the Tesla CHADeMO adapter and have charged at CHAdeMO stations multiple times when off the supercharger network.

Most new CHAdeMO stations are dual standard and also have a CCSCombo connector, too. The Americans (bolt) and germans (bmw i3) are going with CCSCombo for fast DC charging.

The other car companies have no need to build a fast charger network, others are doing it for them. Yeah, it's haphazard for now. Billing can be a hassle. Yeah, most CHAdeMO chargers in service are only half the power that the standard allows. That will all change with demand.

Meanwhile Tesla is having to spend its own money to build a proprietary charging network. That's been awesome for me (33,000 miles in a year, 2/3rds traveling mostly on the sc network), it's costing Tesla a lot of money. So far, great.

Im not sure why people think other car companies have to build their own charging networks when it's already happening.

The problem with Chademo and CCS is that the chargers out there are limited to 50kw. That's not really practical for.a long range EV. You need 100+. The existing network is great for leafs, but not much else.