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Prediction: S/X Interior Refresh w/21-70 and HUD by EOY

Discussion in 'Model S' started by Reciprocity, May 21, 2017.

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Nut Job?

  1. Yes

    59.1%
  2. No

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  3. Savant?

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  4. Insider?

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  1. Reciprocity

    Reciprocity Active Member

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    #1 Reciprocity, May 21, 2017
    Last edited: May 21, 2017
    Its time for another prediction:

    I predict that Tesla will upgrade the interior of the S/X to include some kind of HUD or Augmented reality component. At the very least a new way to interact with the screen that allows you to navigate and operate most functions on the screen without removing your hands from the wheel. Obviously not all functions will be accessible this way, but any that you would want while driving, including things like adjusting air suspension height and steering responsiveness. The goal will be to continue to differentiate the S from the 3 and the X from the upcoming Y. The reason I think HUD or Augmented reality will come with an interior refresh is that Tesla will need to integrate the head and eye tracking sensors into the interior. If you recall, Tesla entered into an agreement with Samsung for some new mystery chip. I think this might be an AP2+ chip which will support a HUD/Augmented reality and replace the MCU (Is that the right term for the processor that handles the infotainment system?) In much the same way Apple was able to vertically integrate by creating the A9 CPU, I think Tesla will want to create its own CPU with the exact characteristics that it requires. They could not justify this when they where building 50k cars a year, but now that they are looking at 1 million cars a year, its a very easy to way to improve margins on one the most expensive components and get a more efficient processor. They could be licensing technology from nVidia or going it on their own.

    Pure Speculation and out there prediction:
    I am thinking that Tesla will upgrade all existing AP2 HW2 cars with this chip, if necessary, and potentially use the 100,000 DrivePX it takes out to create a massive machine learning super computer to analyze data from the cars to create better FSD.

    The 21-70 is coming, it might come before the aforementioned interior refresh, but I have no idea exactly when. My best guess is by the end of the year. I also think there will be an Osborning effect that Tesla will be looking to thwart and they will be looking to do so before Q1 2018, Tesla will be losing fed credits in 2018 and they will either need to lower the price of S/X, which they would easily be able to do without sacrificing margins with the introduction of the 21-70, Tier 1 suppliers, cheaper aluminum from economies of scale from model 3 and on and on... or all of the above and keep the price the same while adding features to help differentiate S/X from not just model 3, but also 5 series and E class. Allowing the model 3 to fill that vacuum while model S/X takes on everything else at higher margins. I think the later is the case and that is why I am predicting a more upscale S/X no later then mid 2018.

    So, do I have inside info or am I just a savant? Or a nut job. I guess we will find out.

    Edit: Forgot to put this in. My last perdiction:

    Prediction: Free supercharging to be brought back!
     
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  2. croman

    croman Active Member

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    Some of your predictions here are likely but a lot contradicts other parts. For example, model S and X volumes are declining. They model 3 will only hasten that decline. So volumes for a special chipset that does augmented reality seems very far fetched. It is more likely that they will use the Panasonic HUD audience that is able to be integrated into the existing MCU which might be upgraded but I don't see anything pushing Tesla to have a HUD other than people on this forum.
     
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  3. Reciprocity

    Reciprocity Active Member

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    I think one thing limiting S is upscale market. I think S is actually capturing the 5 series and E class market which it competes more with 6/7 series and S class. Why would they want to go into a smaller market? Higher margin, they had no choice but to go lower margin with S because they had nothing else to fill that role. Now they do. Losing tax credits will mean lower margins unless they go more upscale.

    X volumes are growing and have impacted S sales more then anything else. S has a huge market share for what it is and at 30% of the large luxury car market, its hard for it to grow. The longer we go, the more replacements will be needed, but that impact will take a while because they didnt sell many model S 5 years ago. X has a very long way to go to hit that same 30%. I could see 2x as many X then S sold every quarter by the end of next year. Nothing against the S, Its just a bigger market and nothing even close exists until Audi comes out with their SUV.

    BTW, spoiler, I voted savant.
     
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  4. croman

    croman Active Member

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    I agree the X hasn't plataeud but competition is coming sooner for the X than S in it's product life cycle.

    Also X isn't getting the same market share capture rate indicating it isn't as compelling of an SUV to buyers than S was for large luxury sedan buyers.
     
  5. gowthamn

    gowthamn Science

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    Elon will do something to differentiate S from 3. I don't know what he will do.
     
  6. Model S M.D.

    Model S M.D. Ludicrous Radiologist

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    So far, the S is quicker, has longer range, more storage, has 2 screens and free supercharging. Is this not enough?
     
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  7. gowthamn

    gowthamn Science

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    #7 gowthamn, May 21, 2017
    Last edited: May 21, 2017
    S is not quicker. Base S is 69k with 0 to 60 5.2 sec. Base 3 is half the price and less than 6 seconds.
    Others I agree, but TWICE the price difference? The differences are not enough. May be they improve interior quality and materials or something.
    Many people who buy Model S buy it because of the EV experience and not luxury. They all will just buy 3 from now on.
     
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  8. Reciprocity

    Reciprocity Active Member

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    Its not enough when the 3 is almost as quick, almost as long range and almost as much storage. They have the same safety features standard. I dont think auto buyers make decisions on how many screens a car has. Auto buyers make decisions on Price, Safety and styling. Those other things come farther down the line. It will be assumed that a modern EV will have good range, no other EVs will exist because they cannot compete in a post Model 3 world.

    As it stands a P375D will compete with many variants of the S in terms of performance for sure and maybe range.
     
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  9. Reciprocity

    Reciprocity Active Member

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    This is exactly what Tesla does not want, they want people buying S. At 2x the price it had better be 2x as nice, not just 20-30% nicer.
     
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  10. gowthamn

    gowthamn Science

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    Yes. The 0-60 times will roughly be the same and the range difference is about 44 miles for the base versions. Not worth twice the price.
    I think Model S will start using 2170 cells soon and then tesla should add features due the savings they get by moving to 2170 cells.
     
  11. AmpedRealtor

    AmpedRealtor Well-Known Member

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    You give Tesla way too much credit...
     
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  12. Shaggy

    Shaggy Member

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    #12 Shaggy, May 21, 2017
    Last edited: May 21, 2017
    Elon has publicly said that the 2170 will come to the S/X by the end of the year. That isn't a prediction so much as weeks old reporting from March. :)

    Report: Tesla To Transition To 2170 Cell In Model S & X By End Of Year

    I thought Mr. Musk all but said no HUD. Cool as they are... Look at what they are putting into the 2018 Lincoln.



    And holy crap, BMW (iirc) is doing gesters? Yikes. Everyone talking with their hands will start changing radio stations!

    http://jalopnik.com/is-gesture-control-your-next-cars-coolest-feature-or-an-1751678557
     
  13. tpham07

    tpham07 Member

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    Elon wants to move towards autonomous driving, meaning less and less driver interface components. HUD seems to be the last thing right now on their agenda.
     
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  14. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

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    21-70 is obvious. In fact it could be as soon as q3 IMO, as that is one aspect that the M3 has an advantage over current MS/MX.
     
  15. dragoljub

    dragoljub Member

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    "You Wont Care." ;)
     
  16. LargeHamCollider

    LargeHamCollider Battery cells != scalable

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    The form factor is not an advantage for anything but cost and maybe some small volume optimizations, any cathode/anode/electrolyte change can be used in 18650s. There's no reason why 2170s will have a significant advantage over 18650s in any dimension but cost. Also 2170s will have slightly lower C rate, aotbe, and will raise the cg of the vehicle slightly. Both of these things are undesirable.

    The move to 2170s should be viewed as a cost optimization not a performance optimization.
     
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  17. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

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    Sounds great, but I wonder if it will be described as such to new customers looking to buy, or they will just pick up on the fact that M3 are being powered by the fancy new cells coming directly from the Nevada gigafactory instead of Japan.
    Also, at this point in time...when we already know from Elon that the 2170s are coming for the MX/MS... then would they bother incorporating cathode/anode/electrolyte changes to the 18650s?
     
  18. LargeHamCollider

    LargeHamCollider Battery cells != scalable

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    I'm not saying 2170s will never come to S/X, and I agree that what you are saying is an issue (buyers picking up on "fancy new cells" in M3) but I don't think it will happen til Tesla's contract for 2B cells is fulfilled around the end of the year or later. I don't think Tesla has significant urgency to transition S/X to 2170s.
     
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  19. Reciprocity

    Reciprocity Active Member

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  20. hly

    hly Member

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    I predict that production is being retooled right now to put the 2170 cells into S and X with 100 batteries.
     
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