Prediction: Tesla 40D will make a comeback

[Sir Guacamolaf]

Two recent changes to supercharging lately,

1. Tesla started to charge for supercharging, and idle fees, and
2. Tesla is aggressively adding supercharging locations (here).

One way to look at charging at home vs. outside, is like having a washer/dryer at home, or visiting a laundromat.
I should be able to use a laundromat if I need to, but it is hugely convenient to have your own washer/dryer at home.

A number of interesting parallel use cases emerge,

Apartment dwellers: Some people who don't have space for a washer/dryer will always prefer to use the laundromat.
Home owners who have just moved, or haven't figured out getting the charger installed: Some people whose washer breaks down may want to use the laundromat.
Temporarily assigned somewhere for work: And others who are away from home, or moving, can use the laundromat until they figure out the laundry situation at home.
100D: Some will carry a large suitcase when travelling
110v: Or you can handwash
Go to Nissan dealer and use chademo: Some will wear their underwears inside out.

This begets the question, if
a) 95% of my usage is covered by a 40KwH battery (100 mi range), and
b) There are 100's of reasons for Tesla to keep the entry price point low (taxes, rebates), and
c) Charging is ubiquitous, affordable and convenient
d) People get comfortable with the idea of charging your car vs filling the tank,

.... will Tesla bring back the 40KwH battery? I'm betting it'll happen!

 

[Jack007]

They have the model 3 coming,
If they just got rid of the 60,
why would they bring back the 40?
I loved the line
110v: Or you can hand wash !!!

 

[mrtian97]

depend how much range the 40 will get, I don't think at this phase of the company that Tesla wants to dilute their brand. They always been known to be 1 step ahead of other auto brand

 

[Sir Guacamolaf]

why would they bring back the 40?

Because they must keep the entry point low. Lot of tax rebates (germany, maryland, others) are putting a price cap on the eligibility for rebates.

It makes a lot of sense for Tesla to offer a 40kwh battery out of the gate for a price under $60K, and allow to upgrade later (battery replacement or OTA).

Also, the 40kwh doesn't HAVE to be a Model S.
Imagine a $20K Model 3 with a 20kwh battery that you could unlock to 40kwh.

 

[Saghost]

I don't think Tesla is going to do it, on S or 3. SMP part duex suggested Tesla doesn't see the need for anything below the $35k base 3, based on the ability to do creative financing like Tesla Network renting out. Unless demand for the S gets weak, I don't think Tesla wants to reduce the gap between the two cars.

 

[Jack007]

OK,
a 40 in a model 3, perhaps in a year or two I could see that.
I still think most people will want the 300 mile range of a 75 M3.
I was about 2/3 charged and I went for a drive (traded an old Nintendo 64 game system and games for some junk silver)
I still had lots of range left (est 24% when home)
I could have driven to the supercharger for some free juice,
but I was like why bother when I can just plug in at home.
More range more options.
And city slickers will like only going for a supercharge once a week rather than every other day or so.

 

[msnow]

Not seeing it. Tesla is trying to simplify the choices for buyers (as well as ruduce their costs). I don't think this accomplishes those goals particularly with the 3 coming.

 

[MIT_S60]

No. With their battery factory running their cost per kWh will drop to a point where it wouldn't make sense to release a car with a small battery.

 

[ChadS]

Bigger batteries have features other than range that benefit Tesla. Better performance, faster charging, better longevity, more resilience if a charge is missed...plus (at least currently) it is a big differentiator on range.

Yes, you can build lower priced cars with less battery, but there's no margins down there and it dilutes the brand by taking away range and the above features. By the time Tesla can build enough cars that volume matters more than margins, as others have noted the battery costs will be low enough (Tesla's battery costs already appear to be low for the industry) that it will not be much help to cut down on battery.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Not many people wanted a 40 back then, not many would buy one now.

This is not neccessary and not what Tesla stands for.

 

[TexasEV]

No. Tesla isn't making a Model 3 with lesss than 200 mile range. It's certainly not going to make a Model S wih less than 200 mile range! The days of short range EVs are over.

 

[muleferg]

No.

 

[anonim1979]

No.

Not One Step Back.

 

[BluestarE3]

Can't see them cheapening the brand by gimping the range. Almost everyone else is announcing new EV models with larger batteries and longer range than the current crop of city/commuter cars. The trend is to employ larger, rather than smaller, batteries.

 

[NikeWings]

OK I'll be a contrarian......if Tesla anticipates any projected challenge in ramping up M3 production levels sufficient enough to deliver its entire order book before Y/E 2018 (before competitive options hit the market), then re-introducing a stripped down S could alleviate price point issues to secure brand loyalty and save its back log. While many will be hot for the M3, others will be looking for just the best looking, cost effective EV available. No doubt right now where it could exist, and with minimal impact to the S production line.,,,,,and if a locked battery was offered with a future upgrade incentive???

Why would some one schlep around their old backpack for another year, when they can travel now with a Louis Vuitton weekender?

 

[Saghost]

if Tesla anticipates any projected challenge in ramping up M3 production levels sufficient enough to deliver its entire order book before Y/E 2018 (before competitive options hit the market), t

What are you thinking the competition arriving at the end of 2018 for the Model 3 is?

I thought the conventional wisdom was that on the EV side it'll be basically up against the Bolt EV and the next generation Nissan Leaf.

The Bolt EV is on sale now in some markets, and I believe will be on sale throughout the US (and Europe?) by the end of *this* year.

The second generation Leaf is supposed to be arriving in September of this year I believe, though I'm not sure if that's in limited locations again.

A dozen Audis and the FF and Lucid cars are supposed to be 2018 arrivals, but if they materialize they are competition for the S and X by size and features and price rather than the 3, I thought.

 

[davinci2017]

No chance, it would destroy the model separation and go against the very latest update message they posted regarding the two Models and how they are different

Quote
"MS...will continue to be our flagship Model with more range, more acceleration, more power, more passenger and cargo room, more displays (two) and more customization choices"

That cannot just be for the higher variants, it has to be for the model itself, ergo, 40 is not coming back neither is 60.

 

[ecarfan]

will Tesla bring back the 40KwH battery?

No. Elon has said many times that Tesla will not make a car that has a range of less than 200 miles.

I think he considers the S40 a mistake.

 

[NikeWings]

What are you thinking the competition arriving at the end of 2018 for the Model 3 is?

Not sure it has to be arriving exactly by Y/E 2018 but if someone is still waiting (due to unmet production goals or disastrous quality) by Q4 2018 and the next sexy thing is on the way, Tesla may not be the coolest choice out there or worth waiting for any longer.

No chance, it would destroy the model separation and go against the very latest update message they posted regarding the two Models and how they are different

After a barely acceptable and ridiculous quality showing in the X, I don't think Tesla can absorb another production mishap without longer term implications, especially as competition begins to emerge. I am not suggesting this is Tesla's goal, but an easily implemented contingency plan to retain/build its entry level loyalty in the event of M3 production, quality and/or service problems. I would expect they already have a contingency plan in place - too much riding on this line with 0000's ready to hit social media with every misstep, squawk, squeal, threatened class action blah blah blah. It'll be a mob scene and it will be avoided with at all costs.

And any earlier Musk quote could be repositioned as a genius new product or strategy in disguise. (Almost every premium brand overlaps its low end of the higher end, with a higher end of the lower end. Big whoop.)

Just being the contrarian in the room......

 

[AMPd]

Because they must keep the entry point low. Lot of tax rebates (germany, maryland, others) are putting a price cap on the eligibility for rebates.

It makes a lot of sense for Tesla to offer a 40kwh battery out of the gate for a price under $60K, and allow to upgrade later (battery replacement or OTA).

Also, the 40kwh doesn't HAVE to be a Model S.
Imagine a $20K Model 3 with a 20kwh battery that you could unlock to 40kwh.

Why would tesla be going backwards?
Every automaker that had an 80 mile range ev has been increasing that range

For tesla to come out with one in a few years would be laughable.