Prediction: Tesla 40D will make a comeback

[henderrj]

I wanted to see it, I really did, but I just don't. If you want the rebate, if you need the rebate, buy a 3. Otherwise spend the money on what you really want (or buy used). Then again, what do I know!

 

[whitex]

.. because these low price limits for rebates were not in effect until now. But if you look at regulations being enacted, everyone is coming up with them.

Not true. In WA state where I live there has been a limit since 7/2015 so before software limited 60 was introduced. The rebate for EV's is sales tax exemption (10%), so nothing to sneeze at. Not only that, EV battery upgrade is also exempt, so if Tesla was to charge me $40K for the car and $40K for a battery upgrade, I would have saved $8K last December, but they didn't, and they won't - nothing to do with whether it's a new limit or old.

 

[Maximilien]

Actually, at one point, even 75 may be gone. So going back to 40 is really not likely it.

There may be a day we will see 100D being the lowest

 

[Yggdrasill]

This is what I think will happen with the Model S/X packs in the next 2-3 years: (Corrected some figures from the original post.)

This is my thinking for changes on the Model S/X battery pack specs for the near future:

1. The 90 kWh pack is updated to the new 18650 module design, and goes from 16 to 14 modules. (Soonish.)
2. The 90 and 100 kWh packs get cells with the newest chemistry, upping the capacities by ~5% and potentially improving charging power. (This year.)
3. The current 75 kWh pack is eliminated, replaced by a lightly modified top spec 21-70-based Model 3 pack, which is also around 75 kWh. (This year.)
4. The 90 kWh and 100 kWh packs are completely redesigned, going to the 21-70 cells. The 75 kWh pack uses 8 modules like before, while the ~95 kWh pack uses 10 modules and the ~110 kWh pack uses 12 modules. (2018-ish.)

This allows Tesla to first phase out the outdated 18650 module design, then they phase out 18650s entirely, going to a single module design across all vehicles. Any thoughts?

Edit: Just to sum up the different batteries:

Current 18650-based 75 kWh pack: 6216 cells in a 74p84s config across 14 modules, ~350V, ~75 kWh total, ~72.6 kWh available
21-70 based 75 kWh pack: 3840 cells in a 40p96s config across 8 modules, ~400V, ~77 kWh total, ~74.6 kWh available

Current 18650-based 90 kWh pack: 7104 cells in a 74p96s config across 16 modules, ~400V, ~88.1 kWh total, ~84.1 kWh available
New 18650-based 90 kWh pack: 7224 cells in a 86p84s config across 14 modules, ~350V, ~89.6 kWh total, ~85.6 kWh available
Improved chemistry 18650-based 90 kWh pack: 7224 cells in a 86p84s config across 14 modules, ~350V, ~94.1 kWh total, ~90.1 kWh available
21-70 based 90 kWh pack: 4800 cells in a 50p96s config across 10 modules, ~400V, ~96.2 kWh total, ~92.2 kWh available

Current 18650-based 100 kWh pack: 8256 cells in a 86p96s config across 16 modules, ~400V, ~102.4 kWh total, ~98.4 kWh available
Improved chemistry 18650-based 100 kWh pack: 8256 cells in a 86p96s config across 16 modules, ~400V, ~107.5 kWh total, ~103.5 kWh available
21-70 based 100 kWh pack: 5760 cells in a 60p96s config across 12 modules, ~400V, ~115.5 kWh total, ~111.5 kWh available

Making a Model S with a 75 kWh Model 3 pack should allow Tesla to drop the price, it will likely be significantly cheaper to manufacture. We will just have to see what Tesla does.

 

[wws]

The Chevy Bolt EV has set a bar with its 238 mile EPA range. All other non-Tesla EVs will be scrambling to match it over the next few years. Who knows - it may have even been responsible, in part, for the recent re-demise of the 60 kWh Model S. The only way I'd see Tesla offer a 40 kWh pack is in some future very small and very efficient car that could get over 200 miles with one.

 

[AVRnj]

With battery prices going down, not up, I don't see it. More super chargers are great, but there are also gas stations at every block in many areas of the country and gas tanks are still plenty big. 40 would probably be fine for many people, but how much of a difference in price is a 40 going to be than a 60?

 

[henderrj]

With battery prices going down, ... how much of a difference in price is a 40 going to be than a 60?

Strong agreement with that statement. But, of course, wasn't that the point of the OP? If we can get the retail amount below a certain level then the buyer gains tax advantages. I still don't see a 40 coming back though. I think a much more likely scenario is gradual reduction in prices. Or maybe not so gradual! Maybe in a year Tesla drops everything 30%. Hey, I can dream can't I?

 

[Saghost]

Strong agreement with that statement. But, of course, wasn't that the point of the OP? If we can get the retail amount below a certain level then the buyer gains tax advantages. I still don't see a 40 coming back though. I think a much more likely scenario is gradual reduction in prices. Or maybe not so gradual! Maybe in a year Tesla drops everything 30%. Hey, I can dream can't I?

I'm expecting them to take (another) page from Apple's book instead.

One of the (many) reasons that Apple is so successful is that they generally don't drop prices. Instead, when the competition drops prices Apple adds new features at the original price point.

I'm expecting that by the time the 3 waiting list winds down, they'll have made major improvements to the interior to compete with Mercedes and Volvo (remember the high profile Volvo interior guy they hired a few months back?) and added some new wiz bang features (HUD, not sure what else) and bigger 2170 battery packs, but they won't drop the overall price range by much.

Of course, this is prognostication on the internet - possibly not worth what you paid for it...

 

[GlmnAlyAirCar]

Dude if democracy picked the right answer, we'd have different choices for presidents.

OP requested feedback on his analysis; most replied emotionally about the kind of battery they wanted.

So, I agree with OPs response here.

 

[FlatSix911]

This is the correct answer ...

View attachment 224344

Dude if democracy picked the right answer, we'd have different choices for presidents.

Your survey and your data ...

 

[xyeahtony]

All the federal/state tax rebates will probably expire in the next 12-16 months and unless governments put up new ones (not happening with this oil friendly new administration) there is literally no point in having a "smaller" battery just for a "lower" price point to help people in 1-2 states.

 

[TexLaw]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 40kWh battery pack, but it will be in a Model 3/Y, not a Model S/X. From the trajectory Tesla seems to be employing with its brands, that would be like putting a six gallon gas tank in a Suburban just because some folks only like to putter around town in it. That's what the Model 3 is for.

 

[Half Dollar Bill]

Yes, I think a restyled 40 will make a comeback!
It's going to have fins, white-wall tires, and an 8 track to make the price-point more competitive

 

[RogerHScott]

Here's another contrarian perspective: Tesla may believe that the obsession with range is an adolescent fad in the development of the
EV market, motivated largely by irrational insecurities. Sure all of the other EV makers are jumping on that bandwagon -- that's the
nature of a fad. Does Tesla see their role as following fads -- especially fads they are largely responsible for -- or stepping back and
looking at the long term? My understanding is that Elon's long-term objective is wide adoption, above all else. Everything we've seen
so far has been plotting a course toward that goal. If they believe that there's a significant market segment for shorter range cars (with
benefits other than just lower price, btw) then I doubt they'd cede that to others.

As for decreasing battery costs, I think people are being rather optimistic to believe that the total delivered-to-customer cost of a kWH of Tesla battery will come down enough (in the near future) to make the cost difference between 40kWH and 80ishkWH unimportant.