TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

Prediction: Tesla 40D will make a comeback

Discussion in 'Model S' started by Sir Guacamolaf, Apr 24, 2017.

Tags:
?

Agree with the below analysis?

  1. Yes

    9 vote(s)
    6.7%
  2. No

    126 vote(s)
    93.3%
  1. henderrj

    henderrj Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2014
    Messages:
    591
    Location:
    Graham, WA, United States
    I wanted to see it, I really did, but I just don't. If you want the rebate, if you need the rebate, buy a 3. Otherwise spend the money on what you really want (or buy used). Then again, what do I know!
     
  2. whitex

    whitex Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2015
    Messages:
    4,465
    Location:
    Seattle area, WA
    Not true. In WA state where I live there has been a limit since 7/2015 so before software limited 60 was introduced. The rebate for EV's is sales tax exemption (10%), so nothing to sneeze at. Not only that, EV battery upgrade is also exempt, so if Tesla was to charge me $40K for the car and $40K for a battery upgrade, I would have saved $8K last December, but they didn't, and they won't - nothing to do with whether it's a new limit or old.
     
    • Informative x 2
    • Like x 1
  3. Maximilien

    Maximilien Member

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2016
    Messages:
    729
    Location:
    Irvine, CA
    Actually, at one point, even 75 may be gone. So going back to 40 is really not likely it.

    There may be a day we will see 100D being the lowest
     
    • Like x 1
  4. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2012
    Messages:
    4,108
    Location:
    Kongsberg, Norway
    #44 Yggdrasill, Apr 24, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2017
    This is what I think will happen with the Model S/X packs in the next 2-3 years: (Corrected some figures from the original post.)

    Making a Model S with a 75 kWh Model 3 pack should allow Tesla to drop the price, it will likely be significantly cheaper to manufacture. We will just have to see what Tesla does.
     
    • Informative x 1
  5. wws

    wws Member

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2014
    Messages:
    431
    Location:
    Northern California
    The Chevy Bolt EV has set a bar with its 238 mile EPA range. All other non-Tesla EVs will be scrambling to match it over the next few years. Who knows - it may have even been responsible, in part, for the recent re-demise of the 60 kWh Model S. The only way I'd see Tesla offer a 40 kWh pack is in some future very small and very efficient car that could get over 200 miles with one.
     
  6. AVRnj

    AVRnj Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2017
    Messages:
    100
    Location:
    In a land far far away
    With battery prices going down, not up, I don't see it. More super chargers are great, but there are also gas stations at every block in many areas of the country and gas tanks are still plenty big. 40 would probably be fine for many people, but how much of a difference in price is a 40 going to be than a 60?
     
  7. henderrj

    henderrj Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2014
    Messages:
    591
    Location:
    Graham, WA, United States
    Strong agreement with that statement. But, of course, wasn't that the point of the OP? If we can get the retail amount below a certain level then the buyer gains tax advantages. I still don't see a 40 coming back though. I think a much more likely scenario is gradual reduction in prices. Or maybe not so gradual! Maybe in a year Tesla drops everything 30%. Hey, I can dream can't I?
     
  8. Saghost

    Saghost Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2013
    Messages:
    6,547
    Location:
    Delaware
    I'm expecting them to take (another) page from Apple's book instead.

    One of the (many) reasons that Apple is so successful is that they generally don't drop prices. Instead, when the competition drops prices Apple adds new features at the original price point.

    I'm expecting that by the time the 3 waiting list winds down, they'll have made major improvements to the interior to compete with Mercedes and Volvo (remember the high profile Volvo interior guy they hired a few months back?) and added some new wiz bang features (HUD, not sure what else) and bigger 2170 battery packs, but they won't drop the overall price range by much.

    Of course, this is prognostication on the internet - possibly not worth what you paid for it...
     
  9. GlmnAlyAirCar

    GlmnAlyAirCar Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2015
    Messages:
    1,024
    Location:
    Southeast PA
    OP requested feedback on his analysis; most replied emotionally about the kind of battery they wanted.

    So, I agree with OPs response here.
     
    • Like x 1
    • Disagree x 1
  10. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 Porsche 918 Hybrid

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2015
    Messages:
    5,634
    Location:
    Silicon Valley
    Your survey and your data ... :cool:

    upload_2017-4-26_20-29-4.png
     
  11. tpham07

    tpham07 Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2017
    Messages:
    1,972
    Location:
    Rhode Island
    All the federal/state tax rebates will probably expire in the next 12-16 months and unless governments put up new ones (not happening with this oil friendly new administration) there is literally no point in having a "smaller" battery just for a "lower" price point to help people in 1-2 states.
     
  12. TexLaw

    TexLaw Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2017
    Messages:
    450
    Location:
    Bellaire, TX
    I wouldn't be surprised to see a 40kWh battery pack, but it will be in a Model 3/Y, not a Model S/X. From the trajectory Tesla seems to be employing with its brands, that would be like putting a six gallon gas tank in a Suburban just because some folks only like to putter around town in it. That's what the Model 3 is for.
     
  13. Half Dollar Bill

    Half Dollar Bill Traveller, teacher, poet, accountant

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2013
    Messages:
    1,377
    Location:
    Northern Virginia
    Yes, I think a restyled 40 will make a comeback!
    It's going to have fins, white-wall tires, and an 8 track to make the price-point more competitive :rolleyes:
     
    • Funny x 1
  14. RogerHScott

    RogerHScott Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2016
    Messages:
    1,894
    Location:
    Lafayette, IN
    Here's another contrarian perspective: Tesla may believe that the obsession with range is an adolescent fad in the development of the
    EV market, motivated largely by irrational insecurities. Sure all of the other EV makers are jumping on that bandwagon -- that's the
    nature of a fad. Does Tesla see their role as following fads -- especially fads they are largely responsible for -- or stepping back and
    looking at the long term? My understanding is that Elon's long-term objective is wide adoption, above all else. Everything we've seen
    so far has been plotting a course toward that goal. If they believe that there's a significant market segment for shorter range cars (with
    benefits other than just lower price, btw) then I doubt they'd cede that to others.

    As for decreasing battery costs, I think people are being rather optimistic to believe that the total delivered-to-customer cost of a kWH of Tesla battery will come down enough (in the near future) to make the cost difference between 40kWH and 80ishkWH unimportant.
     
    • Like x 2

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC