Prediction: Tesla average selling price will increase to $150,000 USD

[Plood]

I think $150,000 will be correct. Of course, inflation will have devalued the currency by 3x by the time FSD is resolved, so that's the same $50k in today's dollars.

 

[AMPd]

I think $150,000 will be correct. Of course, inflation will have devalued the currency by 3x by the time FSD is resolved, so that's the same $50k in today's dollars.

Lol I was going to post the exact same thing
FSD is simply not happening any time soon.

 

[advocate8]

Lol I was going to post the exact same thing
FSD is simply not happening any time soon.

leaving the viability of FSD aside -- I know, a big leave -- this presupposes no other company will set up competing service. They definitely would.

 

[FredMertz]

You lost me at: "If/When FSD is out of Beta..."

He lost me at the part that involves large numbers of people letting random, unsupervised people ride in their cars.

 

[meomyo]

at 150k noone will buy but the uber rich with money to waste..like jayleno...rappers/movie stars etc

 

[texas_star_TM3]

people forgot how silly they sound when they mention "robotaxis". that is solid Level 5 and full approval by regulatory authorities.

meanwhile "vision only" Tesla's still struggle with the sun temporarily blinding the cameras, and disabled AP/FSD when the sun is too low, dirty cameras, and the car isn't even Level 3.

I highly doubt that Level 5 is even possible with the current approach of vision only and no additional sensors being used for low light/ corner cases where vision only doesnt work. A Robotaxis just can pull over when the sun is blinding the cameras and sit on the side of the road until the camera sensors work again.

 

[meomyo]

people forgot how silly they sound when they mention "robotaxis". that is solid Level 5 and full approval by regulatory authorities.

meanwhile "vision only" Tesla's still struggle with the sun temporarily blinding the cameras, and disabled AP/FSD when the sun is too low, dirty cameras, and the car isn't even Level 3.

I highly doubt that Level 5 is even possible with the current approach of vision only and no additional sensors being used for low light/ corner cases where vision only doesnt work. A Robotaxis just can pull over when the sun is blinding the cameras and sit on the side of the road until the camera sensors work again.

self driving is a joke. Self driving cars will rely on sensors on the car for sure and what happens in snow and heavy rain? lol.. even now when snow/ice as you drive gets on the model s sensors they wont work..

 

[mjwojtukiewicz]

For those that don't care to read all of this, here's the short version:
If/When FSD is out of Beta and at least one U.S. city/state has approved driverless taxis to accept paid rides, the ASP (Average Selling Price) of Tesla vehicles will increase to approximately $150,000 USD. FSD price will increase to $25,000 USD.

-----

The reason... Tesla will need to incentivize people to purchase Tesla vehicles for use on their ride hailing network; which will increase the vehicle's utilization 5x to 10x. It would not fulfill Tesla's mission to sell a vehicle for an ASP of $50,000 where it will be used 5% to 10% of the day.

Elon has mentioned several times in the past that FSD will unlock the highest asset value change in history. He as also mentioned that FSD value is 100K. Not many people believe this (understandably). Even if FSD and Tesla Robotaxis are a reality, FSD eventually costing $100,000 seems way too high...doesn't it?

I believe a majority of people are misinterpreting his tweets/comments about FSD value. That $100,000 price tag does not have to be the upfront cost to purchase in order for its value to be worth that much. Most people that are familiar with Tesla's mission would ask "How does eventually charging 100K for FSD help in Tesla's goal to 'accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy' if most cannot afford that price?". Well, Elon has answered this question in different ways throughout the years. A better question is "Who would pay that much for FSD, even if it is making money as a Robotaxi?" The answer...those that can afford it and calculated the potential net profit. With Tesla's recent price increases combined with the past ones over the course of a year. It's not hard to imagine future price increases to match the demand of those willing to purchase a Robotaxi.

-----------

Elon mentioned some statements on the Q4 2021 Earnings call about continuing to sell their vehicles at Tesla's current ASP for years to come. He said something to the effect of the cost of the vehicle is divided by 5 if it's utilized 5 times as much. Statements like these are breadcrumbs to help get a better understanding of what he's planning.

Demand for Teslas are high and seems to be looking like that will be the case for years (even without FSD). If FSD comes out of Beta and is approved by regulators, Tesla will have an even bigger (but good) problem on its hands. How to capture this new unlocked profit potential? Raise prices even further. Now Elon has already mentioned that FSD price will continue to increase. But...
1) I believe FSD price has a practically/functional limit well before $100K.
2) Just raising FSD wouldn't balance supply/demand.

I've heard Gali from Hyperchange mention FSD prices could reach $25K and I believe this would be approaching the practical limit. Here's the initial problem with increasing the price past that. The demand and wait time from people who plan on buying a Tesla without FSD is still there. Businesses who are willing and able to pay the FSD price are waiting with people that just want a Tesla without FSD. Just think about this recent FSD prioritization. People are still waiting to purchase a Tesla without FSD. These wait times could stretch past 12 months for practically all models; which does have precedence.

How does Tesla's ASP reach $150,000? By manipulating pricing in an effort to accomplish these 4 goals:
1) Increase car utilization as high as possible
2) Satisfy Robotaxi customer demand in whatever markets they're serving
3) Current/future Tesla owners have an incentive to put their vehicles on Robotaxi network
4) Tesla gets paid; either upfront or re-occurring revenue. Maximizing profits while balancing the other 3 goals.



Here's a pricing scenario in which the 4 goals get met. ASP of non-FSD purchased vehicles increases to $125,000. While FSD price is $25,000. It would remove almost all buyers that don't intend to put their car on the Tesla RoboTaxi network.

*For those individuals that would be upset that they can't afford those prices. Mostly those are the ones that don't want to share their vehicles. They can purchase another EV brand. To those individuals that say NO, I want a Tesla. I want to experience a Tesla...Hail a Tesla Robotaxi via app of course.

---------

Hearing what Elon and Tesla has said over the years about Automony and FSD. Then hearing Elon expressing his thoughts on the Q4 2021 Earning calls (especially about the "$25K" car). It all seems as though they're ready to change the purpose/reason to buy a Tesla once autonomy hits.

In order for the ASP to increase to $150,000, it would mean Tesla's current vehicles, S3XY and future vehicles would all have to sell at a BASE price near $125,000. Most people think at that price demand would fall off a cliff. But Tesla would be increasing the price to balance the demand. Because otherwise Tesla could make re-occuring revenue from making it a Robotaxi and not selling the car. At least with that price Tesla would get upfront Robotaxi cost for those businesses willing to pay.

---------

FSD Robotaxi will force Tesla's dramatic increase in ASP because the vehicle becomes a tool. It will produce multiples in profit versus its cost because of its increased utilization and usefulness to society. So every vehicle they sell without FSD lowers their ASP and future re-occurring revenue from that vehicle's non-participation in the Tesla Robotaxi network.

----

Where did I get the value of the Tesla's $150,000 ASP from? It's a result from Tesla balancing the demand for their vehicles versus their ability to accomplish the 4 goals I previously mentioned. During autonomy day, Elon mentioned the gross profit to an owner from a Robotaxi (after Tesla's cut) was ~$30,000 a year. The expected lifespan of the vehicle was ~11 years. So, $30,000 x 11 years = $330,000 in gross profit to the owner of a Robotaxi.

If I take the $300,000 (rounded down) in gross profit the owner would receive over the course of 11 years and divide it by 2 to equal $150,000. This would be the purchase price of a Robotaxi. It would incentivize a good majority of purchasers to keep their car on the Robotaxi network (re-occurring revenue for Tesla) and provide a one-time upfront revenue for Tesla. While still allowing the owner to receive ~$150,000 in gross profit over the lifetime of the vehicle.

----

If Tesla does not increase their ASP and simultaneously prioritize FSD purchased vehicles first, the added demand would not benefit Tesla or the waiting customers. There is a price balance required to remove those not willing to pay the new price for personal ownership versus those that are willing to pay and still see profit in Robotaxi.

----

A scenario where the 4 goals I mentioned are not met: a non-FSD purchased vehicle has an ASP $50,000 and FSD costs $100,000. Even Tesla prioritizing FSD purchased vehicles means there will still be people with non-FSD orders waiting in the back of the line for possibly years. Doesn't benefit either party.

ASP $125,000 + FSD $25,000 naturally removes people unwilling to pay the higher price but keeps those that still are willing to put their vehicles on the Robotaxi for the majority of the time.

----

If Tesla were to sell a vehicle (ASP ~$50,000) to a person without them purchasing FSD, none of the 4 goals would be met.
1) The vehicle (on average) would have low utilization. Parked outside of work or home most of the day.
2) The vehicle, not being a Robotaxi means it cannot be used by customers waiting for a ride
3) The personal owner that bought a Tesla without FSD has a weak incentive to put the vehicle on the network because they'd have to purchase the expensive FSD, share ~30% cut with Tesla, and clean/maintain the car more than usually due to higher utilization. The lower the FSD price is, the lower the incentive for personal owner
4) Most impactfully, Tesla only received a one-time $10k-15k gross profit on the vehicle.

If Tesla sold a vehicle (ASP ~$50k) to person/business with FSD, the 4 goals would be partially met.
1) The vehicle would multiple its utilization 2x, 4x, or 10x - all depends on how often its chosen to be put on the Robotaxi network.
2) The vehicle may or may not help satisfy the Robotaxi customer demand based on times the owner chooses to put the vehicle on the network.
3) This incentive varies depending on if the owner is a business or a personal owner.
4) Tesla would receive a one-time $10k-15k gross profit and a relatively small unpredictable re-occurring revenue. *Not a maximizing profit potential senerio*

--------

Taxi drivers in NYC are losing their shirts for overpaying for taxi medallions, they are being undercut by Uber and Lyft and people are gonna pay 150K to compete with all the above?

 

[andy.connor.e]

For those that don't care to read all of this, here's the short version:
If/When FSD is out of Beta and at least one U.S. city/state has approved driverless taxis to accept paid rides, the ASP (Average Selling Price) of Tesla vehicles will increase to approximately $150,000 USD. FSD price will increase to $25,000 USD.

-----

The reason... Tesla will need to incentivize people to purchase Tesla vehicles for use on their ride hailing network; which will increase the vehicle's utilization 5x to 10x. It would not fulfill Tesla's mission to sell a vehicle for an ASP of $50,000 where it will be used 5% to 10% of the day.

Elon has mentioned several times in the past that FSD will unlock the highest asset value change in history. He as also mentioned that FSD value is 100K. Not many people believe this (understandably). Even if FSD and Tesla Robotaxis are a reality, FSD eventually costing $100,000 seems way too high...doesn't it?

I believe a majority of people are misinterpreting his tweets/comments about FSD value. That $100,000 price tag does not have to be the upfront cost to purchase in order for its value to be worth that much. Most people that are familiar with Tesla's mission would ask "How does eventually charging 100K for FSD help in Tesla's goal to 'accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy' if most cannot afford that price?". Well, Elon has answered this question in different ways throughout the years. A better question is "Who would pay that much for FSD, even if it is making money as a Robotaxi?" The answer...those that can afford it and calculated the potential net profit. With Tesla's recent price increases combined with the past ones over the course of a year. It's not hard to imagine future price increases to match the demand of those willing to purchase a Robotaxi.

-----------

Elon mentioned some statements on the Q4 2021 Earnings call about continuing to sell their vehicles at Tesla's current ASP for years to come. He said something to the effect of the cost of the vehicle is divided by 5 if it's utilized 5 times as much. Statements like these are breadcrumbs to help get a better understanding of what he's planning.

Demand for Teslas are high and seems to be looking like that will be the case for years (even without FSD). If FSD comes out of Beta and is approved by regulators, Tesla will have an even bigger (but good) problem on its hands. How to capture this new unlocked profit potential? Raise prices even further. Now Elon has already mentioned that FSD price will continue to increase. But...
1) I believe FSD price has a practically/functional limit well before $100K.
2) Just raising FSD wouldn't balance supply/demand.

I've heard Gali from Hyperchange mention FSD prices could reach $25K and I believe this would be approaching the practical limit. Here's the initial problem with increasing the price past that. The demand and wait time from people who plan on buying a Tesla without FSD is still there. Businesses who are willing and able to pay the FSD price are waiting with people that just want a Tesla without FSD. Just think about this recent FSD prioritization. People are still waiting to purchase a Tesla without FSD. These wait times could stretch past 12 months for practically all models; which does have precedence.

How does Tesla's ASP reach $150,000? By manipulating pricing in an effort to accomplish these 4 goals:
1) Increase car utilization as high as possible
2) Satisfy Robotaxi customer demand in whatever markets they're serving
3) Current/future Tesla owners have an incentive to put their vehicles on Robotaxi network
4) Tesla gets paid; either upfront or re-occurring revenue. Maximizing profits while balancing the other 3 goals.



Here's a pricing scenario in which the 4 goals get met. ASP of non-FSD purchased vehicles increases to $125,000. While FSD price is $25,000. It would remove almost all buyers that don't intend to put their car on the Tesla RoboTaxi network.

*For those individuals that would be upset that they can't afford those prices. Mostly those are the ones that don't want to share their vehicles. They can purchase another EV brand. To those individuals that say NO, I want a Tesla. I want to experience a Tesla...Hail a Tesla Robotaxi via app of course.

---------

Hearing what Elon and Tesla has said over the years about Automony and FSD. Then hearing Elon expressing his thoughts on the Q4 2021 Earning calls (especially about the "$25K" car). It all seems as though they're ready to change the purpose/reason to buy a Tesla once autonomy hits.

In order for the ASP to increase to $150,000, it would mean Tesla's current vehicles, S3XY and future vehicles would all have to sell at a BASE price near $125,000. Most people think at that price demand would fall off a cliff. But Tesla would be increasing the price to balance the demand. Because otherwise Tesla could make re-occuring revenue from making it a Robotaxi and not selling the car. At least with that price Tesla would get upfront Robotaxi cost for those businesses willing to pay.

---------

FSD Robotaxi will force Tesla's dramatic increase in ASP because the vehicle becomes a tool. It will produce multiples in profit versus its cost because of its increased utilization and usefulness to society. So every vehicle they sell without FSD lowers their ASP and future re-occurring revenue from that vehicle's non-participation in the Tesla Robotaxi network.

----

Where did I get the value of the Tesla's $150,000 ASP from? It's a result from Tesla balancing the demand for their vehicles versus their ability to accomplish the 4 goals I previously mentioned. During autonomy day, Elon mentioned the gross profit to an owner from a Robotaxi (after Tesla's cut) was ~$30,000 a year. The expected lifespan of the vehicle was ~11 years. So, $30,000 x 11 years = $330,000 in gross profit to the owner of a Robotaxi.

If I take the $300,000 (rounded down) in gross profit the owner would receive over the course of 11 years and divide it by 2 to equal $150,000. This would be the purchase price of a Robotaxi. It would incentivize a good majority of purchasers to keep their car on the Robotaxi network (re-occurring revenue for Tesla) and provide a one-time upfront revenue for Tesla. While still allowing the owner to receive ~$150,000 in gross profit over the lifetime of the vehicle.

----

If Tesla does not increase their ASP and simultaneously prioritize FSD purchased vehicles first, the added demand would not benefit Tesla or the waiting customers. There is a price balance required to remove those not willing to pay the new price for personal ownership versus those that are willing to pay and still see profit in Robotaxi.

----

A scenario where the 4 goals I mentioned are not met: a non-FSD purchased vehicle has an ASP $50,000 and FSD costs $100,000. Even Tesla prioritizing FSD purchased vehicles means there will still be people with non-FSD orders waiting in the back of the line for possibly years. Doesn't benefit either party.

ASP $125,000 + FSD $25,000 naturally removes people unwilling to pay the higher price but keeps those that still are willing to put their vehicles on the Robotaxi for the majority of the time.

----

If Tesla were to sell a vehicle (ASP ~$50,000) to a person without them purchasing FSD, none of the 4 goals would be met.
1) The vehicle (on average) would have low utilization. Parked outside of work or home most of the day.
2) The vehicle, not being a Robotaxi means it cannot be used by customers waiting for a ride
3) The personal owner that bought a Tesla without FSD has a weak incentive to put the vehicle on the network because they'd have to purchase the expensive FSD, share ~30% cut with Tesla, and clean/maintain the car more than usually due to higher utilization. The lower the FSD price is, the lower the incentive for personal owner
4) Most impactfully, Tesla only received a one-time $10k-15k gross profit on the vehicle.

If Tesla sold a vehicle (ASP ~$50k) to person/business with FSD, the 4 goals would be partially met.
1) The vehicle would multiple its utilization 2x, 4x, or 10x - all depends on how often its chosen to be put on the Robotaxi network.
2) The vehicle may or may not help satisfy the Robotaxi customer demand based on times the owner chooses to put the vehicle on the network.
3) This incentive varies depending on if the owner is a business or a personal owner.
4) Tesla would receive a one-time $10k-15k gross profit and a relatively small unpredictable re-occurring revenue. *Not a maximizing profit potential senerio*

--------

I did the TLDR version, but I agree. Average price that is. Will be a lot that don't go for fsd, but most will.

 

[andy.connor.e]

Taxi drivers in NYC are losing their shirts for overpaying for taxi medallions, they are being undercut by Uber and Lyft and people are gonna pay 150K to compete with all the above?

for sure, because you pay 150k for passive service. it's cheaper for the rider too which will be in ridiculous demand.

 

[mjwojtukiewicz]

for sure, because you pay 150k for passive service. it's cheaper for the rider too which will be in ridiculous demand.

I think you are being awfully optimistic when Tesla can become driverless

 

[legendsk]

It's pretty easy to justify $100,000 for FSD software. The average salary for CDL drivers in the U.S. is over $75,000. Fuel savings electric / diesel will easily justify a Tesla semi, let alone maintenance. If you have a Tesla semi with FSD it should pay for itself in about six months. The remaining 9.5 to 14.5 year life of the truck you get to keep most of that. Cars used for taxis aren't as much up front investment and won't have as much return, but will easily pay off the cost of FSD if you rent them out.

In my bedroom there is a chest of drawers with a drawer for underwear. It has a row of neatly folded t-shirts and another of shorts. There are probably 2 dozen of each. Every morning take one off each row and at the end of the day, throw them in the laundry. About once a week do the laundry. Since I'm really just cycling through the first 7, I could be renting out the remaining 17. Seem a little creepy? Hey, the motel rents their room / bed by the month-week-day-hour? They insist on a credit card even if you're going to pay with cash, because if you trash the room unreasonably, they can charge it to your card, (the fine print on the contract you signed).

It should work about the same for robotaxis. And when FSD is released next week, (wink, wink), most of the necessary pieces will be in place. And if FSD is becomes real, full AI Optimus is virtually guaranteed to follow shortly. Then you can have your bot take over the cleaning chores. . . . . . . . . I have less sentimental attachment to my MYLR than my shorts and I'm really starting to consider renting them out.

 

[jebinc]

It's pretty easy to justify $100,000 for FSD software. The average salary for CDL drivers in the U.S. is over $75,000. Fuel savings electric / diesel will easily justify a Tesla semi, let alone maintenance. If you have a Tesla semi with FSD it should pay for itself in about six months. The remaining 9.5 to 14.5 year life of the truck you get to keep most of that. Cars used for taxis aren't as much up front investment and won't have as much return, but will easily pay off the cost of FSD if you rent them out.

In my bedroom there is a chest of drawers with a drawer for underwear. It has a row of neatly folded t-shirts and another of shorts. There are probably 2 dozen of each. Every morning take one off each row and at the end of the day, throw them in the laundry. About once a week do the laundry. Since I'm really just cycling through the first 7, I could be renting out the remaining 17. Seem a little creepy? Hey, the motel rents their room / bed by the month-week-day-hour? They insist on a credit card even if you're going to pay with cash, because if you trash the room unreasonably, they can charge it to your card, (the fine print on the contract you signed).

It should work about the same for robotaxis. And when FSD is released next week, (wink, wink), most of the necessary pieces will be in place. And if FSD is becomes real, full AI Optimus is virtually guaranteed to follow shortly. Then you can have your bot take over the cleaning chores. . . . . . . . . I have less sentimental attachment to my MYLR than my shorts and I'm really starting to consider renting them out.

Someday, sure - but probably not in most of our lifetimes.

 

[andy.connor.e]

I think you are being awfully optimistic when Tesla can become driverless

I said no such thing of when.

 

[mjwojtukiewicz]

I said no such thing of when.

Okay so you buy a car today for 60K+ w FSD and in 2030? when cars drives themselves your car will be 8 years old with what? 50K miles???

 

[andy.connor.e]

Okay so you buy a car today for 60K+ w FSD and in 2030? when cars drives themselves your car will be 8 years old with what? 50K miles???

Not sure. but at 50k miles there's plenty of life left.

 

[CKwik240]

Not sure. but at 50k miles there's plenty of life left.

Frankly, I wouldn't bother with FSD at all for personal use at today's prices, let alone at $100k+. But if it were used as an income source, I'd also want to maximize the ROI on the extra cost so no sense buying it until it's ready and I certainly wouldn't want to pay full price for such a feature part way through the car's useful life.

Still not sure it will make sense financially at this kind of pricing. I see Uber drivers putting in a ton of hours and not really getting ahead. Adding a larger capital cost even if it's passive does not necessarily make this a huge money maker. Especially with the possibility that companies like Waymo are paying a lot less for their FSD tech. It seems like it would be rather hard to remain competitive.

 

[mjwojtukiewicz]

Not sure. but at 50k miles there's plenty of life left.

Ok 50K miles might be alot but 8 years old? What do you do for warranty or car is out of service? I was also being generous when I said 2030 for L5 driving

 

[andy.connor.e]

Frankly, I wouldn't bother with FSD at all for personal use at today's prices, let alone at $100k+. But if it were used as an income source, I'd also want to maximize the ROI on the extra cost so no sense buying it until it's ready and I certainly wouldn't want to pay full price for such a feature part way through the car's useful life.

Still not sure it will make sense financially at this kind of pricing. I see Uber drivers putting in a ton of hours and not really getting ahead. Adding a larger capital cost even if it's passive does not necessarily make this a huge money maker. Especially with the possibility that companies like Waymo are paying a lot less for their FSD tech. It seems like it would be rather hard to remain competitive.

I did Uber for a few months and it pays about $25/hr before expenses. Not really that good. I'm kind of betting on fsd being released before cybertruck so I can keep my 3 as a cab, but in either case I'll be trading it in if it's not. It's great on the highway and am still sucking on my hopeium for the day!