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Prediction: There will be different autopilot package options (1.0, 2.0).

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by ratsbew, Aug 12, 2016.

  1. ratsbew

    ratsbew Member

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    I'm predicting that Model 3 (and Model S & X beforehand) will have three levels of autopilot.

    Safety features: $0 - Included in every car
    Autopilot 1.0: $2,500 - What we have right now on the S & X
    Autopilot 2.0: $10,000 - Much more advanced using Nvidia's Drive PX 2

    I'm fairly certain that Nvidia's Drive PX 2 (or 3) will be the platform of choice for Tesla's next autopilot efforts. On paper, it's just so good that nothing else can really compete.

    Thoughts & comments?
     
  2. strykeroz

    strykeroz Member

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    If the ultimate goal is automated driving then a big part of that is having the sensor data recorded from the largest fleet possible. For that reason I'd not expect the legacy v1.0 sensor suite to continue onto any new car built after the v2.0 hardware is settled upon. Additionally, I don't expect there's any upside to forking the development effort onto two paths. That doesn't exclude the option of having different levels of autonomy that you can software unlock, but using the same hardware.

    Pure speculation on my part of course.
     
    • Like x 8
  3. Alketi

    Alketi Member

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    First, a partnership with nVidia is a strong possibility. Elon is already friendly with Jen-Hsun Huang, as Elon's recent tweet indicates.

    But price wise, $10K is 1/3 the price of the car. If Elon wants to save lives, that's not the way to do it, especially when everyone is likely expecting the feature to be $2500. He would need to radically reset expectations, and soon.

    But finally, why would they go this route? The effective difference between level 2 and level 3 is not pure self-driving capability, but just that level 3 is better. Further, the autopilot will get better over time, both by Tesla enabling features and through fleet learning. So, one will learn differently than the other? Why double their support and testing costs? Press headlines that someone died because of a bug fixed in Autopilot 2.0 that the consumer didn't pay for with Autopilot 1.0?

    Keep It Simple. They've got enough on their plate.

    My expectations at the moment for the Model 3 are for Tesla to deliver the hardware capable of Level 4 autopilot, for the software to start somewhere between level 2 & 3, for it to obviously improve over time, and for it to cost ~$2500. I think most of us are hoping for something similar.
     
    • Like x 2
  4. JeffK

    JeffK Active Member

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    The hardware itself is not terribly expensive and will be included in the base price of every car. The additional price charged for the option is for the software unlock and to increase margins.
     
  5. Jayc

    Jayc Member

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    I'd say for Model 3, it will be next gen hardware + latest version of software at the point it goes on sale.

    Seeing how EM works, I don't think he will try to make money from selling a car with anything less that the latest stable version of software that it is capable of running.
     
    • Like x 2
  6. pinski

    pinski Going Plaid

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    Agreed - there's no way they'd support two variants, especially if they required different hardware. That's no different than the "will the Model 3 have two different types of door handles" discussion. Not happening. Also, can you imagine the field day the press would have with Tesla if they knowingly sold an inferior version of Autopilot and it (continued) to get into accidents, possibly some fatal?
     
  7. sg021

    sg021 Member

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    If the S/X/3 are all going to have a unified hardware set it's difficult to imagine Drive PX being used due to price. It was quoted as $10,000 at launch. Not saying Tesla would pay that price, but it's telling that they are hiring chip designers.

    I do believe it will be unified between the three vehicles, and AP 1.0 hardware will be put to pasture. It will receive software enhancements more or less forever as it will have some commonality with future AP versions.

    I also think it will cost more than AP 1.0, but not outrageously so.
     
  8. Odebek

    Odebek Don't Panic

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    My Prediction

    Basic Safety: Free
    Autopilot 1.0: Free (Level 2 Autonomy)
    Autopilot 2.0: $2,500 (Level 3) 2017
    Autopilot 3.0: $7,000 (Level 4) 2018

    I think there is a small chance that 2.0 will be free as well, given Tesla wants the data to get to level 4
     
  9. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    I don't think that splitting it up really makes sense.
    They are intentionally focused on an approach that can be done with affordable hardware because they want to sell it on a lot of vehicles.
    The extra hardware will increase safety, and safety sells.
    Tesla will have two prices: buy now or buy later.
     
    • Like x 2
  10. 22522

    22522 Member

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    Sell a lot of them. The battery is a cpo foundation play.

    Any way to turn this into a cpo foundation play as well?

    I would drive volume to control the center of the board.
     
  11. WileyTheMan

    WileyTheMan Member

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    This, right here. No other option makes sense to me. As does charging any more money than what they currently do for the luxury units, regardless of the tech.
     
  12. ratsbew

    ratsbew Member

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    I'm betting Nvidia would sell it for $2000 if they can put it in every Tesla (500,000/year in 2018). That is a partnership that's too valuable.
     
  13. JeffK

    JeffK Active Member

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    I'm positive your 2.0 and 3.0 will actually just be autopilot 2.0 and any improvements via software will be free. It makes no sense to separate it and leads to bad press when people get into accidents because they were unclear what the capabilities of the car were.
     
  14. strykeroz

    strykeroz Member

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    The autopilot software doesn't have to be activated for Tesla to collect the data - but the hardware needs to be present.
     
  15. ModelNforNerd

    ModelNforNerd Active Member

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    they are not going to charge you for upgrades to the feature once you've already paid for it.

    have they been charging S/X owners more money every time they make an incremental OTA push?

    hint: no.

    sorry, this is absurd and goes completely against Elon's vision for safe autonomous driving.

    At launch it will be as it is now: AP-Safety or AP-Convenience.

    Once they are comfortable with where the product is at, AP2.0 will be activated. I don't think we'll see 2.0 at Model 3 launch, but once enough of them are on the road, the collective learning of Teslas will be exponential.
     
  16. alseTrick

    alseTrick Member

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    Don't think there are going to be different autopilot packages at all.
     
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  17. Odebek

    Odebek Don't Panic

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    But they want to say: X billion miles driven on AP 2.0... not just collect the telemetry data.
     
  18. strykeroz

    strykeroz Member

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    What they can do (and reportedly do Tesla gains one million miles of self-driving data every 10 hours) is record both where the vehicle is being driven by the human, and where the autopilot would place the vehicle. This way they're able to compare lane-holding by autopilot versus human pilots in the real world.

    If the vehicle has sensors, it is sending that data back to Tesla whether autopilot is active or not, building that database of miles.
     
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  19. Odebek

    Odebek Don't Panic

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    I agree that they will use the non AP telemetry data, but the AP data is more valuable to make the case with the regulators wrt autonomous safety.
     
  20. JeffK

    JeffK Active Member

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    The primary goals of the data collection are for regulators, yes, but more importantly for training autopilot's neural networks and catching as many edge cases as possible.
     

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