Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

[Crowded Mind]

Given all the recent exuberance in the short-term thread around predictions and accountability for predictions on both the bull and bear side, I thought it might be helpful to compile predictions in one simple document. If you are highly convicted in your belief of a future event, now is your chance to get the credit you deserve when that event occurs. So when Tesla hits an all-time high on 9/13/16 or when Model 3 can't be sold for $35k, we will have this to look back at and say, "Yep, you called it."

All predictions should be specific and measurable (by the community). As short or long term as you like.

Examples of legitimate predictions:
TSLA will reach a market cap of $45B in 2017.
Tesla will deliver less than 75,000 cars in 2016.
BMW/Mercedes/Audi will not individually deliver more than 50k units of a 200 mile EPA range EV in a year before 2022.
GM will go bankrupt in 6 days.

Examples of illegitimate predictions:
BMW will produce a better EV than Tesla before 2020. (Define better)
Model Y will be the best car in its class. (Better stated as "Model Y will outsell all $40k+ compact SUV's in the year 2020")
Gigafactory is a hoax. (immeasurable)

Borderline predictions:
Tesla pack cost per kWh will be less than $100 in 2020. (We may be able to figure this out, may not)

Have at it. Sock bets and steak bets allowed.

Tesla Predictions

 

[Crowded Mind]

The "Final Thoughts" column is there for you to offer up any last thoughts on the prediction and why it may or may not have been correct.

Considering adding a degree of confidence option, some way to be able to track things we think are likely but not certain. But I feel that defeats the purpose a bit. Thoughts?

 

[EinSV]

I'll play:

Tesla will exceed 500,000 vehicles delivered in 2018.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I'll play:

Tesla will exceed 500,000 vehicles delivered in 2018.

Good luck with that one. I'd rather go with:

Tesla will deliver between 350k and 500k vehicles in 2018, and exit the year at a production rate greater than 10k per week.

 

[Seesaw]

By 2021

• Market cap of 300-350 billion
• Greater brand value than Audi
• Taking orders for Model Y compact SUV
• Model P pickup shown in concept form at Detroit auto show
• Model S most popular vehicle for heads of state in the world
• Chinese factory complete
• Another U.S. Plant undergoing production
• Easter European plant undergoing construction
• Tesla Energy powerwalls subsidised by many countries worldwide to reduce need of grid upgrades and peaker plants
• Tesla Energy itself is worth around 80-100 billion
• Elon Musk no longer CEO but remains chief engineer and head of product development

 

[evp]

What fun. OK, try these:

* First model 3s will be delivered the last week of 2017
* Model 3 will include Head Up Display

 

[neroden]

I don't seem to be able to enter things directly into the spreadsheet (my browser doesn't like it.)

Anyway:
* ExxonMobil will declare bankruptcy on or before December 31st, 2030.
* In 2018, Tesla will deliver more fully battery-electric automobiles with 200+ mile range than any other manufacturer which is not headquartered in China. (This is a really conservative prediction here, look at all those hedges.)

 

[Alketi]

I like this thread!

• Model 3 Ludicrous will beat the BMW M3 in both cost and straight-line performance (targets to beat: $65K/3.8s 0-60)
• Tesla will sell as many Model 3s as they can make, sending a wake-up call to the industry
• Tesla will announce the construction of a second Gigafactory in 2018
• Apple car will appear in 2018-2019 and be a surprise hit. EVs will be perceived as "inevitable".
• Google will transform their autonomous car into a full software platform (aka "Android Auto"), allow it to run off a generic hardware suite, and make it available to any car manufacturer.
• Tesla's Model 4 will appear by 2022 and cost no more than $25K
• By 2025 EVs will be more than 50% of all new vehicles
• By 2030 EVs will be 95% of all new vehicles

 

[GoTslaGo]

Don't forget to enter your predictions into @Crowded Mind 's google data set (only saw CM & YGG... in there)

Tesla Predictions

It will probably make verification easier that way rather than just wading through all the threads.

PS

I have no soothsaying ability yet, so have entered nothing...

 

[Yggdrasill]

- 100 kWh Model S and Model X listed on Tesla website within three months.
- Factory standard Model S tow hitch available within 12 months.

 

[Gerasimental]

Elon will announce separating out Tesla Energy from Tesla Motors. JB Straubel will be CEO of Tesla Energy, Musk of Tesla Motors.
Within the next 12 hours.

 

[austinEV]

Elon will announce separating out Tesla Energy from Tesla Motors. JB Straubel will be CEO of Tesla Energy, Musk of Tesla Motors.
Within the next 12 hours.

Soo... don't keep us in suspense.

 

[Pando]

2018 - Model R (new Roadster) will be unveiled starting at $250k+ that will be the fastest street-legal car ever built. Production scheduled for late 2019/early 2020.

S3XYR

 

[Pando]

2025 - Tesla starts buying abandoned gas stations to convert them to pay-per-use Superchargers.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Just want to again point out the google doc, please enter predictions there for ease of tracking.

Link: Tesla Predictions

 

[GoTslaGo]

Can we enter other posters predictions in other threads? Some doozies out there....

 

[neroden]

Don't forget to enter your predictions into @Crowded Mind 's google data set (only saw CM & YGG... in there)

Would love to, but...

"A browser error has occurred.
Please hold the Shift key and click the Refresh button to try again"

Feel free to enter mine for me.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Would love to, but...

"A browser error has occurred.
Please hold the Shift key and click the Refresh button to try again"

Feel free to enter mine for me.

Done!

 

[RationalOptimist]

Total Model 3 pre-orders exceed 600k within one week of the 'part 2' unveil of Model 3, driving TSLA through $300.

 

[Gerasimental]

Soo... don't keep us in suspense.

I was relying on being able to edit posts indefinitely