You neither listen to Elon or understand cost accounting. The fixed portion of cost of goods sold will be applied to a relatively small number of cars until production ramps up. Tesla can monkey with the fixed portion to a certain extent as they do with the S/X, but not to the point of showing a positive margin on the first cars. Gigafactory production has the same issue, which is why TE margins don't look particularly good at this point.
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Prediction Thread - "You Called It"
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You neither listen to Elon or understand cost accounting. The fixed portion of cost of goods sold will be applied to a relatively small number of cars until production ramps up. Tesla can monkey with the fixed portion to a certain extent as they do with the S/X, but not to the point of showing a positive margin on the first cars. Gigafactory production has the same issue, which is why TE margins don't look particularly good at this point.
Mod Input:
I predict...a couple of posters are going to wonder why their off-topic posts disappeared.
I predict...a couple of posters are going to wonder why their off-topic posts disappeared.
dennis
Model S Plaid
Yeah, I did listen to Elon, did you? He said 5K/week in 4Q17 and 10K/week sometime in 2018. And yet you are predicting negative gross margins until 20 f'ing 19. I'm sure you are discounting Elon, but exactly what weekly volume do you believe Tesla needs to reach breakeven on Model 3 gross margin?
Hi, everybody. A few weeks ago HERE in this thread and in November 2016 HERE again in this thread, I predicted that the biggest Model 3 battery would be 75 kWh. Today, Elon has confirmed 75 kWh on Twitter. I have updated the Google sheet. You can find there my other predictions. Cheers
I predict the M3 will have a HUD.
Oh....
Don't be cruel unless you predicted Musk would be distracted by digging tunnels and building neural interfaces.
On the off chance that you think I was teasing you for predicting a HUD, I really haven't read this thread so I am not aware of what you or anyone else posted about a HUD. I however, have been super noisy in other threads about saying there would be a HUD on the entire lineup, so my intention was to make fun of myself.
I think you can also safely mark your 'NO HUD' prediction as true (and others who bet YES HUD as false). At this point, Elon has been more explicit about the NO HUD than about the maximum battery capacity that the Model 3 will have (he only spoke about what the wheelbase will allow)
Elon had said that all new tech would be introduced on the MS and MX first. The battery layout in the 100 battery pack is tech going into the Model 3 (though not as many cells) and the MS and MX got AP2 last fall. But HUD isn't available yet, which is why I never thought the M3 was getting HUD. When they start offering HUD as an option in the MS and MX, it will eventually make it to the M3.
I think it might be ergonomically awkward to have all the controls off to the side. People are used to looking straight down to get their data and having to shift eyes to the side may not work as well. If they blow anything with the M3, it will be having no instrument cluster in the traditional place like other cars. Other than that, I think the M3 will blow away any competition and I still think it will upsell a fair number of people currently buying Accords and Camrys and other popular family sedans. A friend had a leased Accord and when it expired a month ago he was looking for something with a shorter lease because he wants an M3 if it proves to be as nice as promised (he wants to give it a year on the market before he bites).
Bill
I think it might be ergonomically awkward to have all the controls off to the side. People are used to looking straight down to get their data and having to shift eyes to the side may not work as well. If they blow anything with the M3, it will be having no instrument cluster in the traditional place like other cars. Other than that, I think the M3 will blow away any competition and I still think it will upsell a fair number of people currently buying Accords and Camrys and other popular family sedans. A friend had a leased Accord and when it expired a month ago he was looking for something with a shorter lease because he wants an M3 if it proves to be as nice as promised (he wants to give it a year on the market before he bites).
Bill
Hi. Today, Elon has finally answered a direct question about HUD so I have updated the predictions sheet.
@nickg_uk: Does that mean it will have a HUD?
@elonmusk: No
Source: Twitter
The reason I predicted no HUD was this test ride video by Motor Trend. Usually, critical pieces of information like this are available in videos or conference calls but people tend to continue believing in what they do even after you show them the information.
@nickg_uk: Does that mean it will have a HUD?
@elonmusk: No
Source: Twitter
The reason I predicted no HUD was this test ride video by Motor Trend. Usually, critical pieces of information like this are available in videos or conference calls but people tend to continue believing in what they do even after you show them the information.
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Hi. I added these to the predictions sheet:
Previously I said the longest range version will have at least 290 mi EPA but these kind predictions that specify only the lower limit or upper limit are easier than predicting the result within let's say +/- 2.5% error margin.
- The base model of Model 3 will have less range than the Chevy Bolt's 238 miles EPA rated range.
- The base model of Model 3 will have between 216-226 miles EPA rated range.
- The longest-range version of the Model 3 will have between 290-304 miles EPA rated range.
Previously I said the longest range version will have at least 290 mi EPA but these kind predictions that specify only the lower limit or upper limit are easier than predicting the result within let's say +/- 2.5% error margin.
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I agree with you about the longest range. However I don't think the base model of M3 will have less range than the Chevy 238 miles range.
I'd say 245 miles will be the base.
I love this topic. Here are two new predictions from me:
- The Model 3 75D will have a lower 0-60 mph time than the Model S 75D's 5.2s.
- The best performance version of the Model 3 will have between 274-288 miles EPA rated range.
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On 4 March I posted:
No
No
No
No
Well, not precisely, so No
No
Well, not precisely, so No
and, finally, No
Rather, it is the merging of human brains with computers, a so-called neural lace (thank you, Iain M. Banks), to be set about via his new company, Neuralink.
The success of which can be said, possibly, to turn all those aforementioned "No"s into "Yes"es. May we all live to see such successes.
And the answer, as most know by now, is:
No
No
No
No
Well, not precisely, so No
No
Well, not precisely, so No
and, finally, No
Rather, it is the merging of human brains with computers, a so-called neural lace (thank you, Iain M. Banks), to be set about via his new company, Neuralink.
The success of which can be said, possibly, to turn all those aforementioned "No"s into "Yes"es. May we all live to see such successes.
Interesting. I'll predict that the base model will have more range than the Chevy Bolt's EPA rated range (but barely -- 1 to 10 miles more).
Reasoning: I think the marketing value is worth it, and I think Musk knows this (there was an "Oh ye of little faith" tweet in response to someone who asked if the range would be longer than the Bolt); I think they shouldn't have trouble achieving that; and I think Tesla's design of battery packs allows for small adjustment of battery pack size so that this wouldn't be a disruptive engineering change even if it was done after the Bolt rating was announced.
I like Troy' battery prediction, because I think they will want to keep the bigger M3 battery pack under the range of the S100D.
Also, a base M3 that is rated under the Bolt still has the supercharger network. So the effective range is considerably greater. Why not offer a 215 range base model 3? I don't see the downside for Tesla. They don't need marketing value for a car they cannot produce in sufficient quantities to meet demand. They can always add to the base configuration later if necessary.
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