Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

[tander]

China / India / Europe / US East just makes a lot of sense. That said, I suspect the *announcement* will precede the actual *construction* by a really long time, and the announcement may literally just be a country or region (not an actual site).

Not sure about India but in China it's a tricky dance they are doing, trying to get a solid foot or two on the ground without giving up ownership rights. Not sure if they will end up compromising or keep holding out but when they do it will be a major step for Tesla since it's the largest auto market in the world.

My prediction: the model 3 will outsell the model t in time adjusted per capita every year until they stop making it. Other prediction; Musk has considered or planned to begin dropping the price every year ( like the model t), but probably won't because demand is already super high and it would be a huge pain to try and do it as a public company ( somebody please ask about that at the shareholders's meeting!)

 

[FlatSix911]

Not sure about India but in China it's a tricky dance they are doing, trying to get a solid foot or two on the ground without giving up ownership rights. Not sure if they will end up compromising or keep holding out but when they do it will be a major step for Tesla since it's the largest auto market in the world.

My prediction: the model 3 will outsell the model t in time adjusted per capita every year until they stop making it. Other prediction; Musk has considered or planned to begin dropping the price every year ( like the model t), but probably won't because demand is already super high and it would be a huge pain to try and do it as a public company ( somebody please ask about that at the shareholders's meeting!)

Interesting data on the Model T ...

 

[T3slaTulips]

Refining my earlier prediction slightly to add precision.

1st batch of employee configurations of Model 3 will open Friday, June 2 between 1pm and 2pm PDT while Franz is doing the Q&A.

Fail. Nostradamus I am not.

 

[JRP3]

Fail. Nostradamus I am not.

I don't think he actually predicted anything accurately, so maybe you are

 

[FlatSix911]

Who called this one ... Tesla will discontinue the 90 kWh battery pack next week

 

[GoTslaGo]

Who called this one ... Tesla will discontinue the 90 kWh battery pack next week

I predict .... @Troy

Now I believe that does make me Nostradamus---not

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Who called this one ... Tesla will discontinue the 90 kWh battery pack next week

Troy:

Today, Electrek has published THIS article. They say they have confirmed with Tesla that the 60 will be discontinued next month. This was one of my predictions. In December 2016 HERE and then a few days ago HERE I said Tesla would discontinue the S60 and S60D. To me it was obvious they would do this. It still surprises me that this was not obvious to so many people. I also expect the 90 kWh to be discontinued by the end of August this year.

In addition, I predict that the 75 kWh S and X will be discontinued too. This prediction is a little more interesting than the other two because I don't think even Tesla knows they will discontinue the 75 kWh S and X because they are underestimating people's desire for more range. The S75D has 259 miles rated range. The X75D has 237. The Model 3 75D is expected to have over 300 based on my calculation. Most people won't pay more for less range. 75 kWh S and X sales will drop close to zero after the Model 3 release. The S75/75D will be gone by mid-2018. X75D might survive until the end of 2018.

GoTslaGo beat me to it, but I provided a reference!

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody.

In early March, I made this prediction about the 90 kWh here in this thread:

The Model S 90D and Model X 90D will be discontinued by the end of Aug 2017.

Today, Tesla confirmed they will discontinue the 90. Quote: "The company confirmed to Electrek that the 90 kWh battery pack will not be available for order after June 8th." Source. I have updated the spreadsheet here. I feel good about my predictions. So, here are two brand new predictions from me:

• The Model S and X won't switch to 2170 cells in 2017.
• Smart air suspension will be available in the Model 3 before the performance version starts production, even though Tesla's compare page (tesla.com/compare) shows only coil suspension.

 

[EinSV]

Hi, everybody.

In early March, I made this prediction about the 90 kWh here in this thread:


Today, Tesla confirmed they will discontinue the 90. Quote: "The company confirmed to Electrek that the 90 kWh battery pack will not be available for order after June 8th." Source. I have updated the spreadsheet here. I feel good about my predictions. So, here are two brand new predictions from me:

• The Model S and X won't switch to 2170 cells in 2017.
• By the time the performance version starts production, smart air suspension will be available in the Model 3 even though Tesla's compare page (tesla.com/compare) shows only coil suspension.

How does this thread work exactly? Can I "update" any bad predictions when it is obvious they are going to be wrong so I can say I was right?

• The Model S 90D and Model X 90D will be discontinued by the end of April 2017.

According to the latest shareholder letter, Tesla wants to reach 50,000 sales in the first half of this year. That means the 60 and 90 should be available for a little longer than I thought. Let me update my predictions:

New version:

• The Model S 60 and 60D will be discontinued by the end of Aug 2017.
• The Model S 90D and Model X 90D will be discontinued by the end of Aug 2017.

Old version:

• The Model S 60 and 60D will be discontinued by the end of June 2017.
• The Model S 90D and Model X 90D will be discontinued by the end of April 2017.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

How does this thread work exactly? Can I "update" any bad predictions when it is obvious they are going to be wrong so I can say I was right?

In Troy's defense, his updates were in Mar, to push 60kwh cancellation from Jun to Aug. Not exactly a point in time when the cancellation was "obvious". And what about the 90kwh cancellation? That one went in the reverse direction?

I think he deserves some credit for even considering such a claim.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @EinSV. If you wait until the deadline is almost over, I think that's unfair but if there is enough time I don't see a problem with changing your mind. I posted the new version here on 9 Mar 2017. With more than 7 weeks to go until the "end of April" deadline, I thought there was enough time to change it. If it had been last 2 weeks or so I wouldn't have edited it.

The predictions sheet here has a column called "Date of Prediction". I always update this to the new prediction date and post a message here in this thread to let everyone know what the new version is. Also, I stick with the new version even if it turns out to be less accurate. For example, the sheet says "The Model S 60 and 60D will be discontinued by the end of Aug 2017". My original prediction from Dec 2016 here was more accurate but I stuck with the new version.

 

[wdolson]

I've been meaning to make this prediction for a while but keep forgetting.

On the Model S/X Tesla will discontinue the 75 KWH pack in favor of a new 85 KWH pack. The new pack will have the same number of modules (14), but they will be the same modules as the 100 KWH pack. The old 75 and new 85 will probably overlap in production by maybe a month or two, but the old 75 will be gone by the time the Model 3 starts regular production.

The new 85 KWH pack will actually be slightly higher capacity than the old 90 KWH pack and the new 85 KWH might just crack 300 miles EPA range. This will be hailed as a big psychological barrier crossed and will help to differentiate the low end Model S from the top range Model 3.

The Model X 85D will have range a tad better than the 90D had.

Internally, this simplifies production for Tesla. They can just make one module for all the S and X cars. Introducing the new 85 before the Model 3 will also help reduce the Osborne effect on the Model S.

I believe this could happen as soon as early summer (late June into July) of 2017. Definitely before the Model 3 is in regular production (available to the public, not just employees).

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. About 2 weeks ago I said the following here and added it to the spreadsheet here.

• The Model S and X won't switch to 2170 cells in 2017.

Elon has just tweeted here they have no plans to change the form factor for S and X. This was one of the speculated subjects recently.

 

[schonelucht]

It is a little premature to already mark that one as correct, though. Tesla's plans can and do change in short order. There are still more than 6 months in this year.

 

[EinSV]

Based on recent developments, two predictions I made very likely will turn out to be incorrect.

I predicted Tesla would deliver the first Model Y by March 31, 2019. This prediction was based on what I understood to be Tesla's plan to develop an SUV version of the Model 3. Elon recently explained that Tesla will be re-designing the Model Y from the ground up and will be using a full-blown version of alien dreadnaught production. It also announced that the reveal for Tesla Semi will be this year, which will precede the Model Y. With all of these complications, Elon predicted Model Y deliveries will begin in 2020, maybe late 2019. But Elon continues to predict that Model Y production will begin in time for Tesla to deliver 1M vehicles in 2020 so in the big picture Tesla remains on track.

In March, I predicted that Model X sales would exceed Model S sales by Q3 based on my belief that demand for X exceeds S at the same price points, and my understanding that the price gap between entry level S and X would shrink after the S60/60D was discontinued:

In Q3 2017 Model X deliveries will exceed Model S deliveries (and may happen sooner).

I believe demand for X already exceeds demand for Model S at comparable price points, but this has been masked by significantly lower price of the entry level Model S (~$68K v. $88K US) and Model X production constraints.

The price gap between entry level S and X should narrow significantly after the S60/60D is discontinued and improved production efficiency of Model X will allow Tesla to steadily increase Model X volume.

But instead of shrinking the price difference between S and X when it discontinued the S60/60D, Tesla significantly decreased the price of the Model S 75/75D, without a comparable decrease to the X75D. This not only gave the S a much lower entry price point than the X, but also significantly changed how S and X stack up against each other with the same battery size.

I continue to believe demand for the X substantially exceeds demand for the S at the same price point, but the $13K difference between an entry S and X ($69.5K v. $82.5K in the US) is so large that it is unlikely that the X sales will exceed S sales soon unless the price gap drops, unless it gets "lucky" in Q2 as Tesla works through the backlog in X orders.

Incidentally, the high entry level price of the X will also mask its success against other premium SUVs, most of which have significantly lower entry level price points.

I will make a note in the spreadsheet, but I am not going "update" these predictions to something that will prove correct and remove them from the spreadsheet. I continue to believe that undermines the value of this thread.

One lesson from these two likely incorrect predictions is that Tesla's plans are constantly evolving, which makes certain types of long-term predictions especially challenging. But that's half the fun

 

[Dynastar]

As there's been a bit of grumpy conversation about this topic over in the model 3 forum, I'll go ahead and predict that the base 3 wheels will come with areo covers standard, and that the epa range will be derived with said setup.

 

[FlatSix911]

Who predicted this ... Tesla introduces new performance enhancements to Model S and Model X

Tesla has updated its vehicle lineup last night to introduce new performance enhancements to Model S and Model X – making the non-performance versions of both vehicles significantly quicker from a standstill. Here we take a quick look at the updated features: The improvements are more significant for the base versions of the Model S. The Model S 75 and its dual motor version are both gaining a full second of acceleration from 0 to 60 mph:

• Model 75: 4.3 seconds down from 5.5 seconds
• Model S 75D: 4.2 seconds down from 5.2 seconds

As for the more recent Model S 100D, it’s also seeing a slight improvement in acceleration:

• Model S 100D: 4.1 seconds down from 4.2 seconds

The bigger Model X, which is only available with dual motor, is also seeing some new performance enhancements:

• Model X 75D: 4.9 seconds down from 6.0 seconds
• Model X 100D: 4.7 seconds down from 5.5 seconds.

Interestingly, those upgrades are also coming just ahead of the launch of the Model 3 and since they are most important on the base versions of the vehicles, it looks like Tesla might be looking to further differentiate its higher-end models, Model S and Model X, with its newest less expensive Model 3.

 

[neroden]

Well, last night I predicted that Tesla was about to announce a model S or X update based on the dump of inventory cars into the used car sales channel, but since I only predicted it at a private dinner party last night...

 

[wdolson]

I think this is the first step towards upgrading the 75 to the 85 or 90 I predicted. The acceleration on the car is limited by the number of cells in the pack along with other factors (like having 1 or 2 motors and the wiring). The module used for the original 85, the 90, and the 75 pack had 444 cells per module. The original 60 had 384 cells. The module used in the 100 KWh pack has 516 cells. It looks like the 100 KWh pack also has an improvement to the capacity of each cell. To get Jason Hughes' numbers, the AH of the cells needs to go from 3.355AH in the 2nd generation module (75/90 packs) to 3.445AH in the 100 KWH pack module.

I included a spreadsheet image of what I've been able to find about the different batteries.

As you can see a pack with 14X modules as used in the 100 KWh pack would have a capacity of 89.6 KWh. That would be a bit more than the old 90 KWh pack. If they updated the chemistry as well as the module design, it will be cheaper for their production process to drop the old cells and old module design ASAP.

I think it's quite possible the cars they just announced are software limited 90s (though they might get advertised as 85s, they tend to round down the capacity of small packs and round up the capacity of large packs).

Even though the voltage is still only 350V at the pack, they run it through an inverter anyway and with more current capacity with more cells: 7224 (14X516) vs 7104 (16X444), the new small pack will have a bit more current available. They might actually be software limiting acceleration so they don't step on the toes of the larger battery car.

By announcing this at the start of the quarter, the domestic cars purchased today won't be built until the end of this month, and the cars built for overseas with software limited battery capacities gives the new owners plenty of time to unlock the battery to 90 KWh. They are dumping the old 90s to make way for the new 90. I expect that announcement will be at the end of July or early August. Just before the cars built with the new 75 packs reach their overseas destinations.

I also suspect this will be the only major change to the S/X for the rest of this year. They made a mistake sunsetting free supercharging with only the standard 100 WKh battery as a new feature. That boosted sales at the end of last year, but left them with no carrots except the 100 KWh battery to dangle in front of potential buyers.

This time, I think they will roll out some kind of major refresh around Jan 1 next year that will get people to buy the S/X without free supercharging. They might even announce a price reduction or just some kind of major change that better justifies the higher price without changing the pricing much.

 

[neroden]

They might even announce a price reduction or just some kind of major change that better justifies the higher price without changing the pricing much.

If they've got the Gigafactory up to high enough capacity, they might switch to Gigafactory cells and announce a price reduction while increasing profit margin. I know they said they have "no plans" to do so in the short term, but... we all know they're doing it eventually...