Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

[electracity]

Prediction:
All Model 3 are software upgrade able to HUD.

Prototype hiding in plain sight at the model 3 delivery event:

 

[JRP3]

Prediction:
All Model 3 are software upgradeable to AWD.

(Warning: I was big on HUD in the model 3)

Prediction, you're wrong

 

[electracity]

Prediction, you're wrong

They are hiding the good stuff. Probably stored with the HUD parts underground.

 

[surfside]

My prediction:

-within one month of the pricing of the proposed $1.5 billion of unsecured notes, Morgan Stanley will upgrade TSLA to overweight.

I'm just reading between the lines -- Adam Jonas out with a bullish new note this morning calling the model 3 a big disruptor; I think once they raise this new capital MS will upgrade citing less balance sheet risk and strong prospects for the model 3.

surfside

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. In November 2016, I wrote the following in this thread here:

1. Tesla will divide superchargers to two categories: Long distance superchargers and city superchargers. Grandfathered cars will continue using long distance superchargers for free. However, if they want to use city superchargers, they will need to buy credits for those.

I didn't get the name exactly right. I called them city superchargers. Tesla calls them urban chargers. See Elon's tweet from yesterday. I hope they use 'Urbanchargers' as a brand name similar to Superchargers. There are no details yet but I will stick with my prediction from last year: Those will be paid superchargers and even cars with free supercharging will have to pay to use them. The Model 3 is the reason why Tesla is launching the Urbanchargers now.

 

[jim3cantos]

Hi, everybody. In November 2016, I wrote the following in this thread here:

I didn't get the name exactly right. I called them city superchargers. Tesla calls them urban chargers. See Elon's tweet from yesterday. I hope they use 'Urbanchargers' as a brand name similar to Superchargers. There are no details yet but I will stick with my prediction from last year: Those will be paid superchargers and even cars with free supercharging will have to pay to use them...

If true, a new wave of complaints is coming...

 

[Bgarret]

***** Disclosure *****

This shouldn't even be in the "You Called It" section. It is pure fiction, fueled by speculation, Hopium and California wine. Before I even embarrass myself, let it be known that Tesla will NEVER partner with anyone (except Panasonic) - not Google, not Apple, not TenCent, not the kids on the corner selling lemonade. Never going to happen. With that caveat....here we go:

1. I was dubious about Value Analysts insistence on the $1.5 Billion bond offering being for more than one gigafactory...but I'm warming to the concept. Here are some facts to consider before I go forward:
a. Tesla will complete a $1.5 - $2.0 Billion high yield bond offering in the next few days.
b. Tesla has an event in September to unveil Tesla Semi.
c. There will be "surprises" at the event. Musk teases September semi truck event surprises, music playlist tech
d. Tesla is petitioning California and Nevada for permits to test autonomous Semis
e. Foxconn is discussing building multiple factories in the US
f. There is a large, yet to be disclosed project TIM in Michigan that has been alluded to be a clean energy manufacturing site that is roughly equivalent to the size of the gigafactory.
g. Tesla aspires to Volume production of Tesla Semi in 18-24 months.
h. With update that the Model Y will have the same chassis as Model III, production of Model Y should be in 18-24 months (early 2019, late 2019).
I. Tesla Semi uses Model III batteries.
J. Production of Model III will stretch Fremont to its capacity at current demand levels.
K. Elon has promised 3-4 new gigafactory announcements this year.

Sooooo....for the prediction for the next 30-45 days.

Tesla will announce 2 new gigafactories to produce Model III, Model Y and Tesla Semi.

Gigafactory 3 will be in Michigan, at the Project TIM site(Audobon's "Tesla In Michigan", or Monte Python). Project TIM will produce Tesla Semi and Model Y, batteries to be provided by Gigafactory 1 in Sparks. Gigafactory 3 will be partnership between Tesla, Foxconn and a major US transportation company. The biggest markets for Model Y will be the US and Europe, and Michigan is a good location to support both. This is also the beginning of the "coup de grace" for the internal combustion engine. This is Tesla bringing the fight to big 3 on their home turf.

Gigafactory 4 will be in China. It will produce Energy Storage, Model III for Chinese demand and Tesla Semi. It will be a JV with TenCent, and will use Tesla's autonomous technology along with data from Didi. This is Tesla bringing the fight to the internal combustion engine in its biggest market that has overwhelming incentives to ditch ICE.

Later in the year, Gigafactory 5 will be announced in Germany, for the same reasons Gigafactory 3 is in Michigan....time to put the wooden steak in the vampire's heart. The additional irony is that the Germany gigafactory will be partially funded by the UAE as they try to pivot out of dependence on fossil fuels to support their extravagant lifestyles.

That's it...pretty tame as fairy tales go. "when you wish upon a star....."

Cheers

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Prediction for 3Q17 deliveries (to be announced first week of October):

Combined Model S/X deliveries of 26k+

Model S deliveries 13.5k+
Model X deliveries 12.5k+

 

[GoTslaGo]

Prediction for 3Q17 deliveries (to be announced first week of October):

Combined Model S/X deliveries of 26k+

Model S deliveries 13.5k+
Model X deliveries 12.5k+

You should start the thread. There's usually a Q prediction thread every quarter. (and don't forget the 3! )

 

[SebastianR]

The Tesla Semi will not include battery swapping. And to be more precise: it does not include Tesla-sponsored/provided battery swapping (private companies may be able to buy more batteries and swap them at their own leisure).

I simply don't think that battery swapping scales quick enough to make sense in any vehicle that's not bound to specific routes only.

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. I have done some gross margin calculations and I think I know what Tesla is going to do next. They will use the Model 3 for unit targets and the Model S/X to increase gross margins beyond Model 3's 25% average. That means, there can't be any S/X below 25% gross margin. Therefore all 75 kWh S and X cars must be discontinued because those have 11-13% gross margins. I don't know if Tesla will replace the 75's with 85's or just remove them but either way, the 75's will be gone. However, reaching 25% gross margin on the Model 3 will take some time. It will happen most likely in Q2 2018. Based on that, here are my predictions:

• The Model S 75D will be discontinued by the end of Q2 2018.
• The Model X 75D will be discontinued by the end of Q2 2018.
  
• Model S/X will switch from AC induction motors to permanent magnet motors by the end of Q2 2018. The EPA rated range numbers of Model S/X cars will increase after this change.
• Tesla will add the new center console with two smartphone docks to the Model S/X by the end of Q2 2018.
• Today, the most expensive Model S starts at $140,000 before options. On 1st Sep 2018, the most expensive Model S will start at $136,000 or less before options.

I feel confident about these changes. Therefore I have added them to the spreadsheet here. By the way, if you disagree with any of these predictions, feel free to add the opposite prediction to this thread and to the spreadsheet. For example, the opposite of the first one would be "The Model S 75D will NOT be discontinued by the end of Q2 2018." I think that makes it more interesting.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Hi, everybody. I have done some gross margin calculations and I think I know what Tesla is going to do next. They will use the Model 3 for unit targets and the Model S/X to increase gross margins beyond Model 3's 25% average. That means, there can't be any S/X below 25% gross margin. Therefore all 75 kWh S and X cars must be discontinued because those have 11-13% gross margins. I don't know if Tesla will replace the 75's with 85's or just remove them but either way, the 75's will be gone. However, reaching 25% gross margin on the Model 3 will take some time. It will happen most likely in Q2 2018. Based on that, here are my predictions:

• The Model S 75D will be discontinued by the end of Q2 2018.
• The Model X 75D will be discontinued by the end of Q2 2018.
  
• Model S/X will switch from AC induction motors to permanent magnet motors by the end of Q2 2018. The EPA rated range numbers of Model S/X cars will increase after this change.
• Tesla will add the new center console with two smartphone docks to the Model S/X by the end of Q2 2018.
• Today, the most expensive Model S starts at $140,000 before options. On 1st Sep 2018, the most expensive Model S will start at $136,000 or less before options.

I feel confident about these changes. Therefore I have added them to the spreadsheet here. By the way, if you disagree with any of these predictions, feel free to add the opposite prediction to this thread and to the spreadsheet. For example, the opposite of the first one would be "The Model S 75D will NOT be discontinued by the end of Q2 2018." I think that makes it more interesting.

How about agreeing with the outcome, but not the timeline? Let's say by q4'17 for the center console for example?

 

[Troy]

Hi, @Oil4AsphaultOnly. I was encouraging people to make more predictions instead of just disagreeing with me because if they are indeed right, it would be a shame if it goes unnoticed. I find it difficult to keep track of who is good or bad at predictions. I'm starting to confuse forum members with each other. So, if people have different predictions, by all means, feel free to write them in the forum and in the spreadsheet.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Hi, everybody. I have done some gross margin calculations and I think I know what Tesla is going to do next. They will use the Model 3 for unit targets and the Model S/X to increase gross margins beyond Model 3's 25% average. That means, there can't be any S/X below 25% gross margin. Therefore all 75 kWh S and X cars must be discontinued because those have 11-13% gross margins. I don't know if Tesla will replace the 75's with 85's or just remove them but either way, the 75's will be gone. However, reaching 25% gross margin on the Model 3 will take some time. It will happen most likely in Q2 2018. Based on that, here are my predictions:

• The Model S 75D will be discontinued by the end of Q2 2018.
• The Model X 75D will be discontinued by the end of Q2 2018.
  
• Model S/X will switch from AC induction motors to permanent magnet motors by the end of Q2 2018. The EPA rated range numbers of Model S/X cars will increase after this change.
• Tesla will add the new center console with two smartphone docks to the Model S/X by the end of Q2 2018.
• Today, the most expensive Model S starts at $140,000 before options. On 1st Sep 2018, the most expensive Model S will start at $136,000 or less before options.

I feel confident about these changes. Therefore I have added them to the spreadsheet here. By the way, if you disagree with any of these predictions, feel free to add the opposite prediction to this thread and to the spreadsheet. For example, the opposite of the first one would be "The Model S 75D will NOT be discontinued by the end of Q2 2018." I think that makes it more interesting.

Thank you for putting your predictions in writing.

I noticed that in the first paragraph you say, "all 75 kWh S and X cars must be discontinued," but then in the bullet point list you qualify your prediction for only dual motor option.

When you get a chance, could you please clarify?

 

[Troy]

Hi, @ValueAnalyst. I do think Tesla will discontinue all 75 kWh S and X by the end of Q2 2018 but I didn't add a prediction for the RWD S75 because it would be unsportsmanlike to take credit for something Tesla has already confirmed here. Cheers

 

[wdolson]

I believe the new drive units Tesla introduced in the S/X are from the Model 3 program. According to the EPA documents Tesla filed, the drive unit on the Model 3 is a permanent magnet motor. That would mean the current S/X motors are now permanent magnet, though no new buyer has reported better range.

 

[RobStark]

If Tesla 86s 75 kWh Gen II vehicles ( and substantially increases base price of Gen II vehicles with bigger packs) Tesla will not be able to sustain 25k deliveries per quarter.

Therefore dropping not rising gross margins.

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. 3 months ago, I made a prediction about smart air suspension coming to the Model 3, here in this thread and in the spreadsheet here. Elon's recent tweet confirms this. At the time this wasn't clear at all because Tesla's compare page specifically says coil suspension for the Model 3 but I saw that as part of the anti-selling campaign.

• Smart air suspension will be available in the Model 3 before the performance version starts production, even though Tesla's compare page (tesla.com/compare) shows only coil suspension.

Screenshot source: Twitter

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. I'm predicting a chain of 3 events:

• The Model S and X will switch from AC induction motors to the more efficient permanent magnet motors that the Model 3 already uses.
• As a result, the EPA rated range numbers of all Model S and X cars will increase.
• After that, Tesla will advertise a higher (less sandbagged) range number than 310 miles for the Model 3 LR.

 

[stopcrazypp]

• After that, Tesla will advertise a higher (less sandbagged) range number than 310 miles for the Model 3 LR.

Note that the latest EPA sticker shows the 310 number is the official EPA range number. Previously there was speculation it's a bit higher, but it's not.