Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

[stopcrazypp]

Hi, everybody. In November 2016, I wrote the following in this thread here:

I didn't get the name exactly right. I called them city superchargers. Tesla calls them urban chargers. See Elon's tweet from yesterday. I hope they use 'Urbanchargers' as a brand name similar to Superchargers. There are no details yet but I will stick with my prediction from last year: Those will be paid superchargers and even cars with free supercharging will have to pay to use them. The Model 3 is the reason why Tesla is launching the Urbanchargers now.

I never participated in this game before, but if this becomes true, I would have called it (including the name!) more than two years ago (August 13, 2015). Either that or Elon/Tesla read my post on how to make the "free" supercharger network sustainable .

My 2 cents is that the idea of "free" superchargers is sustainable with the following caveats:
...2) Tesla needs to come up with another alternative for city charging (perhaps with the HPWC destination charger program in garages, where presumably the electricity is paid for by the parking fees). As the math by others show, city superchargers are not sustainable as a "free" option. The cost per car is simply too high for Tesla to cover all travel. One other idea is to have a rebranding of city superchargers, maybe call them "urban chargers" for example, where those chargers have a fee (and superchargers remain free).

 

[SBenson]

Hi, everybody. I'm predicting a chain of 3 events:

• The Model S and X will switch from AC induction motors to the more efficient permanent magnet motors that the Model 3 already uses.
• As a result, the EPA rated range numbers of all Model S and X cars will increase.
• After that, Tesla will advertise a higher (less sandbagged) range number than 310 miles for the Model 3 LR.

Just for clarity sake, in AWD do you expect both to be permanent magnet motors?

Based on Musk's shareholder meeting commentary, it appeared like one will be PM and one will be AC in dual motor drive in Model 3. But this is speculation based on vague commentary that one motor will be optimized for highway driving and the other for city driving.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @SBenson. Yes, both the front and rear will be permanent magnet motors.

During the shareholder meeting what Elon described is something that already works in all AWD Model S/X. Dual motor Teslas have different axle ratios for front and rear motors. That means the car switches between the motors instead of switching gears. This happens at the millisecond level and can't be detected by the driver. On page 5 of the EPA document here you can see the axle ratio numbers for the Model S front and rear motors.

This is a very smart way to improve efficiency. They will do the same thing for the Model 3 but it requires lots of work because the motors have changed and the new motors have different specs. For more discussions about the technical aspect of this topic, a suitable thread would be the following:

[Spoiler Alert + Mild Speculation] Tesla has created a monster!

 

[Zenn]

Hi, everybody. I'm predicting a chain of 3 events:

• The Model S and X will switch from AC induction motors to the more efficient permanent magnet motors that the Model 3 already uses.
• As a result, the EPA rated range numbers of all Model S and X cars will increase.
• After that, Tesla will advertise a higher (less sandbagged) range number than 310 miles for the Model 3 LR.

I came across this statement concerning high efficiency permanent magnet motors using reluctance technology which seems to be the best technology. They are limited to about 200 hp. That means the S and X would have to use three motors to match induction motor performance.

That might explain why, based on info available, Porsche's MissionE will have three permanent magnet motors.

"Note that this switched-reluctance motor iteration can be built to deliver up to 200 hp, overlapping with induction and PMAC motor capabilities. In switched-reluctance motors, the stator coils are synchronously energized with rotor rotation, with overlapping phases. While reluctance motors are typically used as open-loop steppers, their switched-reluctance derivative (also sometimes called variable reluctance) is typically operated under closed-loop control. In fact, stepmotors are somewhat similar to switched reluctance, and step to each defined rotor position, resulting in high repeatability and accuracy."

Here's the link for the article.
What's the Difference Between AC Induction, Permanent Magnet, and Servomotor Technologies?

 

[Troy]

Hi, Zenn. I hope both of our messages will be moved to another thread because this thread is about predictions and not technical discussions, but here is what I think about it:

• Tesla is not using motors that are limited to 200 HP because the permanent magnet motor in the Model 3 80 has 258 HP (source: page 4 of EPA document here). The Model 3 P80D will keep the same 258 HP rear motor and it will have a smaller front motor.
• Peak torque (Tp) values of induction motors and PMAC motors are the same.
• Continuous torque (Tc) and continuous power (Pc) values of PMAC motors are much better than AC induction motors. The screenshot below is from page 18 of this presentation. There is a video version here which will start playing at the correct moment. What this means is, Tesla cars with permanent magnet motors will have same or slight better 0-60 times, but their range will improve because of better efficiency, handling will improve because of less weight and track performance will improve because of better continuous torque (Tc) and continuous power (Pc) values. By track performance, I mean things like Nürburgring lap times.

 

[Zenn]

Hi, Zenn. I hope both of our messages will be moved to another thread because this thread is about predictions and not technical discussions, but here is what I think about it:

• Tesla is not using motors that are limited to 200 HP because the permanent magnet motor in the Model 3 80 has 258 HP (source: page 4 of EPA document here). The Model 3 P80D will keep the same 258 HP rear motor and it will have a smaller front motor.
• Peak torque (Tp) values of induction motors and PMAC motors are the same.
• Continuous torque (Tc) and continuous power (Pc) values of PMAC motors are much better than AC induction motors. The screenshot below is from page 18 of this presentation. There is a video version here which will start playing at the correct moment. What this means is, Tesla cars with permanent magnet motors will have same or slight better 0-60 times, but their range will improve because of better efficiency, handling will improve because of less weight and track performance will improve because of better continuous torque (Tc) and continuous power (Pc) values. By track performance, I mean things like Nürburgring lap times.

Tks for your response. The advantages of the PMAC mortor in the slide presentation are clear.

I am not an expert in this electric motor business but is the slide presentation for a reluctance PMAC? If not, wouldn't a reluctance motor be even more efficient and provide more range?

 

[Troy]

Hi, @Zenn. This document says the Model 3 has an AC 3 phase permanent magnet motor rated at 258 HP = 192 kW. Also, see my other comments here. Other than that, I don't have any speculation or comments about this topic. I recommend using this thread for future technical discussion. Good luck.

 

[Troy]

Hi. Here is a new prediction:

• The current Tesla hypermiling record stands at 1078 km (670 miles) achieved in a Model S 100D. A Model 3 will beat this score by the end of 2018.

I feel confident about this one so I've added it to the spreadsheet. If you have comments or questions about hypermiling, a suitable thread would be this one: So who's all about that hypermiling?

 

[dc_h]

Semi reveal another thing possibilities:

• S/X interior upgrade
• S/X HUD
• Motor upgrade, with increased range
• Update to 2170 batteries
• Sprinter truck (my wildcard hope)
• Other?

 

[TradingInvest]

Currently Tesla has close to 500,000 Model 3 reservations. I think 65% will convert to real orders right away, 15% will delay the purchase. 20% will cancel for various reasons. Some people reserved more than they need. Some can't afford it. But after people test the Model 3 in real life, a lot more new people will reserve it.

The "surprise" during Semi reveal should be a new high powered charging system.

 

[neroden]

Hi, everybody. I have done some gross margin calculations and I think I know what Tesla is going to do next. They will use the Model 3 for unit targets and the Model S/X to increase gross margins beyond Model 3's 25% average. That means, there can't be any S/X below 25% gross margin. Therefore all 75 kWh S and X cars must be discontinued because those have 11-13% gross margins. I don't know if Tesla will replace the 75's with 85's or just remove them but either way, the 75's will be gone.

There is another way to raise the gross margin on S & X. I predict that they will find a way to cut the production cost of Model S and X substantially in order to keep the margins up while keeping the base price down. This barely counts as a prediction since it's unverifiable without inside information.

 

[ZenMan]

I predict at tonight's Semi reveal that Tesla will also reveal an update to the Model S and X. Both models will receive new permanent magnet motor upgrades that will extend their range while using the same battery packs.

Separate prediction is for an interior refresh with seat back pockets and HUD.

 

[AudubonB]

I predict that tonight's Semi reveal will not have emerge from the trailer's body a junior-sized version...aka a Tesla pickup truck.

Boo hoo. Wouldn't I be over the moon if I were wrong.

 

[electracity]

Tesla board of directors temporary recall Steve Jurvetson to act as a human shield when Musks insists on an autonomous truck demonstration at the Tesla Truck reveal.

 

[Drone Flyer]

I predict that tonight's Semi reveal will not have emerge from the trailer's body a junior-sized version...aka a Tesla pickup truck.

Boo hoo. Wouldn't I be over the moon if I were wrong.

It’s a big hurdle to jump, I know, but you’ll get over it! Lol!

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Tesla's new semi will have about 300-400 miles of range at 55mph, cost +/- $150k, and have better gradeability than any diesel semi offered.

 

[Jo-]

Tesla Semi as an autonomous RV w/ free, automatic, and rapid supercharging.

 

[JRP3]

cost +/- $150k

You think there is any chance the semi will cost about the same as a high end Model X? Color me doubtful.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

You think there is any chance the semi will cost about the same as a high end Model X? Color me doubtful.

Yeah, it's very optimistic. I'm thinking better efficiency than the SuperTruck, a ~450-600kWh battery @ $100/kWh and 2-3 250+hp motors, but we'll see. I imagine they'll produce trucks for themselves first, and they could have a bunch of 2170 volume via Model 3 production by the time they start selling to other companies.

 

[Electroman]

$100k batteries and $100k rest of the Semi = $200k