Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

[wdolson]

I think true mass volume will come with the Model Y. The Model 3 is not the type of vehicle to sustain big volumes long term. In the mass market sector, sedan sales are dying and also command lower prices - meaning a double whammy for profitability.

Sedans in the future will be where the coupe market is now with an emphasis on style, luxury, performance but not volume.

Tesla should put Roadster and Semi on the back burner and focus all efforts on Model Y.

The Model Y will be revealed next March. At this point, they probably don't need more people on the project.

The biggest issue with both the semi and Model Y is where they will be built. The Roadster is going to be a low volume car and may be built on a side production line at the main factory, the GigaFactory, or a small factory space somewhere. But they will need full blown factories for the Model Y and Semi. The only factory expansion I know of is the next factory in China, but I don't think they will be making Model Y for the US there. They could make the existing three cars there and probably sell the entire production output domestically. The Chinese market is the largest in the world right now.

 

[Boomer19]

I suggested the following yesterday in the “Market Action” thread; am placing it here because I’m more confident in the idea that it really is what has and will be occurring:

The specific timing does not perfectly jibe, but then, thinking about it, it shouldn’t. As in:

I am going to suggest that the impetus for Mr Musk’s “short burn of the century” comment of a week and a half ago was not based on his confidence in increased production rate or a deep-pocketed sugardaddy or anything else of that sort, but rather it was the discovery of Gigafactory saboteur Tripp, and Tesla management’s realization that one of the ramifications regarding fake news, short-selling shenanigans and the like could include the crumbling of the deplorable houses of cards they have been, once the legal process begins -

If this is so, I’m reasoning that the delayed timing between their discovery and their release of the announcement is that management, rather than rushing toward declaring their initial findings of sabotage at the outset, instead continued to gather data - including their...ah....discussions....with Sr Tripp - before making public anything other than the news that a short burn was on its way

This would be in line with what Fairfax Financial did. They hired investigators and the harassment still went on for a while until they finally filed a lawsuit!!! In their case, the lawsuit was their saving grace (as described in book). The company and stock price was under a vicious attack, trading from high 700s all the way down to the mid 100s, so its not a 1:1 comparison to TSLA, but the story parallels are there.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/attachments/fairfax-pdf.310679/
I feel like I’m posting this link daily all over the forums and I apologize. But I still thank Jesse for turning me onto this book and think that’s its worth spreading...Eye opener.

 

[landis]

there is no fundamental reason why this pace of growth cannot continue. If it does

Challenges? Yes, not unlike those to have grown so far so fast already.

Supply chains would be a serious inhibition, but then vertical integration (and/or colocation) within terafactotories deals with tbis. For those boggleing on capital needs, please explain why first section is insufficient to fund subsequnt sections.

While it seems ridiculous to see so many 3,Y, gen4. ...; i would expect greatest need.could easily be to satisfy boring company needs.

I'll reiterate something i have shared before. Two years ago. friends drove us 15 minutes to endpoint of regional rail, that to philadelphia, then amtrak silver star to Fort Lauderdale, a few days at a beach resort, then on to Bahamas cruise. Then everthing in reverse. This was an awesome relaxing trip, chilling enroute rather than at home. Now imagine same trip with my M3 for first leg taking itself back to house, loop replacing regional rail and hyperloop down 95 corridor. Personally i can't wait.

The boring company will be needing lots of pods...

 

[j0hn]

first time i am playing so here goes nothing :

Tesla will suprise everyone with a runrate of 5800 m3 last week of june.

 

[J X 3]

Q3 M3 margins better than 10-15% on the push to prioritize the P version.

 

[Troy]

I want to do a recap about some of my predictions in this thread. On 7 March 2017, I made the following 8 predictions in this thread here. 6 of them turned out to be correct. One of them about the 55 kWh is unknown yet but is likely to be correct when they release the number.

1. Model 3 will be released in two battery sizes, not three.
2. When the configurator for the Model 3 opens, the 0-60 time for the quickest version will be 3.5 seconds or less. [See the screenshot here]
3. The longest-range version of the Model 3 will have at least 290 miles EPA rated range.
4. In 2017 Tesla will deliver between 35,000 and 55,000 Model 3's.
5. The smallest Model 3 battery size will be 55 kWh.
6. The largest Model 3 battery size will be 75 kWh. [See page 137 in the Model 3 Owner's Manual here]
7. The Model 3 won't have any software limited battery pack option when it's released.
8. The Model 3 won't have a HUD when it's released.

Btw, when I made the 75 kWh prediction, it was before Elon tweeted 75 kWh. Elon's tweet came on 24 March 2017 here, a few weeks after I wrote that message.

On 1st April 2017, I made this following prediction in this thread here. I said lower than 5.2s and the time Tesla advertises is 5.1s. See the screenshot here.

• The Model 3 75D will have a lower 0-60 mph time than the Model S 75D's 5.2s.

 

[Troy]

Here are a few new predictions:

Q2 2018 Estimates:

27,443 Model 3 production in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 95%)
23,756 Model S+X production in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 92%)

15,814 Model 3 deliveries in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)
11,269 Model S deliveries in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)
9,674 Model X deliveries in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)

14,512 Model 3 deliveries in the US in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)
1,302 Model 3 deliveries in Canada in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)

I have added the first 2 to the predictions sheet here. The accuracy of these two predictions will be measured in percentage. We will find out the actual numbers in a few days.

 

[FlatSix911]

Troy, great job on your successful prediction record.
Partial credit for the prediction that the Model 3 75D will have a lower 0-60 mph time than the Model S 75D's 5.2s.
The new Model S 75D has now been uncorked now to perform 0-60 mph in 4.2 seconds... Tesla Model S - Wikipedia

I want to do a recap about some of my predictions in this thread. On 7 March 2017, I made the following 8 predictions in this thread here. 6 of them turned out to be correct. One of them about the 55 kWh is unknown yet but is likely to be correct when they release the number.
Btw, when I made the 75 kWh prediction, it was before Elon tweeted 75 kWh. Elon's tweet came on 24 March 2017 here, a few weeks after I wrote that message. On 1st April 2017, I made this following prediction in this thread here. I said lower than 5.2s and the time Tesla advertises is 5.1s. See the screenshot here.

• The Model 3 75D will have a lower 0-60 mph time than the Model S 75D's 5.2s.

 

[FlatSix911]

Here are a few new predictions: Q2 2018 Estimates:
16,361 Model 3 deliveries in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)
11,269 Model S deliveries in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)
9,674 Model X deliveries in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)
14,512 Model 3 deliveries in the US in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)
1,849 Model 3 deliveries in Canada in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)

I have added the first 2 to the predictions sheet here.
The accuracy of these two predictions will be measured in percentage. We will find out the actual numbers in a few days.

Well done. What is your prediction on the 2Q18 delivery number remaining under the 200K Federal Tax rebate limit?

 

[Troy]

I have edited my message to update two of the numbers. My prediction for the 200K is as follows:

• 205,121 US sales at the end of Q2 2018. (Expected accuracy: 96%)

Most people believe that I'm wrong on the 200K calculation but I have to go with what the data shows. If it's wrong, it will demonstrate that it's difficult to estimate deliveries. Generally speaking, estimating deliveries is a lot more difficult than estimating production because a ship might not have arrived yet in Europe or Asia or they might have decided to add more cars to the new inventory fleet. Lot's of things can affect deliveries. Estimating production is easier because of VINs.

Predicting the 200K is really difficult because it turned into a close call. Initially, it looked like they would exceed 200K by 15K. However, Tesla dramatically lowered the deliveries in June. If you look at the table here, it shows 3472 US deliveries for June. In addition, insideEVs calculation is much closer to 200K than mine and they are known to over-estimate the number by 2-3%. I could be 96% accurate and still wrong. They might have managed to postpone 200K to Q3. It's a close call.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I have edited my message to update two of the numbers. My prediction for the 200K is as follows:

• 205,121 US sales at the end of Q2 2018. (Expected accuracy: 96%)

Most people believe that I'm wrong on the 200K calculation but I have to go with what the data shows. If it's wrong, it will demonstrate that it's difficult to estimate deliveries. Generally speaking, estimating deliveries is a lot more difficult than estimating production because a ship might not have arrived yet in Europe or Asia or they might have decided to add more cars to the new inventory fleet. Lot's of things can affect deliveries. Estimating production is easier because of VINs.

Predicting the 200K is really difficult because it turned into a close call. Initially, it looked like they would exceed 200K by 15K. However, Tesla dramatically lowered the deliveries in June. If you look at the table here, it shows 3472 US deliveries for June. In addition, insideEVs calculation is much closer to 200K than mine and they are known to over-estimate the number by 2-3%. I could be 96% accurate and still wrong. They might have managed to postpone 200K to Q3. It's a close call.

If it's such a close call, wouldn't parking a few thousand cars make sense?

 

[Seesaw]

Yeah the fact that June deliveries have slowed so much shows a conscious effort to not breach 200k.

 

[schonelucht]

Or big manufacturing troubles...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Or big manufacturing troubles...

Parking lots of Model 3's point to conscious decision to slowdown deliveries as opposed to big manufacturing troubles.

 

[tander]

Yeah the fact that June deliveries have slowed so much shows a conscious effort to not breach 200k.

That's right they have to keep it under 200,000k for the year right? So they have to actually ramp slowly to make sure they don't go over?

 

[FlatSix911]

More data published here...Why We Believe Tesla Passed 200k U.S. Sales in June

I have edited my message to update two of the numbers. My prediction for the 200K is as follows:

• 205,121 US sales at the end of Q2 2018. (Expected accuracy: 96%)

Most people believe that I'm wrong on the 200K calculation but I have to go with what the data shows. If it's wrong, it will demonstrate that it's difficult to estimate deliveries. Generally speaking, estimating deliveries is a lot more difficult than estimating production because a ship might not have arrived yet in Europe or Asia or they might have decided to add more cars to the new inventory fleet. Lot's of things can affect deliveries. Estimating production is easier because of VINs.

Predicting the 200K is really difficult because it turned into a close call. Initially, it looked like they would exceed 200K by 15K. However, Tesla dramatically lowered the deliveries in June. If you look at the table here, it shows 3472 US deliveries for June. In addition, insideEVs calculation is much closer to 200K than mine and they are known to over-estimate the number by 2-3%. I could be 96% accurate and still wrong. They might have managed to postpone 200K to Q3. It's a close call.

 

[neroden]

I have edited my message to update two of the numbers. My prediction for the 200K is as follows:

• 205,121 US sales at the end of Q2 2018. (Expected accuracy: 96%)

Most people believe that I'm wrong on the 200K calculation but I have to go with what the data shows. If it's wrong, it will demonstrate that it's difficult to estimate deliveries. Generally speaking, estimating deliveries is a lot more difficult than estimating production because a ship might not have arrived yet in Europe or Asia or they might have decided to add more cars to the new inventory fleet. Lot's of things can affect deliveries. Estimating production is easier because of VINs.

Predicting the 200K is really difficult because it turned into a close call. Initially, it looked like they would exceed 200K by 15K. However, Tesla dramatically lowered the deliveries in June. If you look at the table here, it shows 3472 US deliveries for June. In addition, insideEVs calculation is much closer to 200K than mine and they are known to over-estimate the number by 2-3%. I could be 96% accurate and still wrong. They might have managed to postpone 200K to Q3. It's a close call.

You're low on Canadian deliveries, which are at least 2200 based on credible reports, but I'm betting more like 5000. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that you're wrong because (a) Tesla shifted more cars to Canada than you think, and (b) errors in your source for estimates for US/non-US split for earlier years.

Tesla might not announce Canadian deliveries at all, of course, so we may never be able to verify that for sure. I'm pretty sure they will announce which quarter they hit 200K-in-the-US in, though.

 

[FlatSix911]

You're low on Canadian deliveries, which are at least 2200 based on credible reports, but I'm betting more like 5000. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that you're wrong because (a) Tesla shifted more cars to Canada than you think, and (b) errors in your source for estimates for US/non-US split for earlier years.

Tesla might not announce Canadian deliveries at all, of course, so we may never be able to verify that for sure. I'm pretty sure they will announce which quarter they hit 200K-in-the-US in, though.

The data from Inside EVs ... Why We Believe Tesla Passed 200k U.S. Sales in June

June was also the first full month when deliveries were made outside of the United States. The initial push of Canadian deliveries was very strong, but by mid-June had dropped significantly. For June, we expect about 6,050 Model 3’s were sold in the U.S. We also believe that approximately 2,250 made their way to Canadian buyers this month. (Mostly to Ontario.)

The drop in U.S. deliveries is not unexpected considering exports and a late May production shutdown.

While U.S. deliveries of the Model 3 are lower than May, we believe overall deliveries are up to about 8,300. Model X and Model S sales in the U.S. appear to be up slightly over last year as well. We are expecting 2400 Model X and 2900 Model S made their way to U.S. buyers.

 

[Troy]

Yesterday, I wrote this:

Here are a few new predictions:

27,443 Model 3 production in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 95%)
23,756 Model S+X production in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 92%)

I have added the first 2 to the predictions sheet here. The accuracy of these two predictions will be measured in percentage. We will find out the actual numbers in a few days.

Today, we already have the results. As mentioned, I added only these two estimates to the spreadsheet because I was confident about the results. The sheet has a different tab for quantitative predictions where the accuracy is measured in percentage instead of yes/no. The results were as expected.

Both of these production estimates were based on VIN calculations. Besides the Model 3 spreadsheet, I also manage the Model S/X Order Tracker spreadsheet. In this spreadsheet, the S+X production estimate is completely automated. Therefore hopefully it will display similarly accurate estimates for all quarters from now on. We'll find out what happens after Q3. I should probably tweak the settings a little because I was about ~1,000 short in both instances.

 

[FlatSix911]

I have edited my message to update two of the numbers. My prediction for the 200K is as follows:

• 205,121 US sales at the end of Q2 2018. (Expected accuracy: 96%)

Most people believe that I'm wrong on the 200K calculation but I have to go with what the data shows. If it's wrong, it will demonstrate that it's difficult to estimate deliveries. Generally speaking, estimating deliveries is a lot more difficult than estimating production because a ship might not have arrived yet in Europe or Asia or they might have decided to add more cars to the new inventory fleet. Lot's of things can affect deliveries. Estimating production is easier because of VINs.

Predicting the 200K is really difficult because it turned into a close call. Initially, it looked like they would exceed 200K by 15K. However, Tesla dramatically lowered the deliveries in June. If you look at the table here, it shows 3472 US deliveries for June. In addition, insideEVs calculation is much closer to 200K than mine and they are known to over-estimate the number by 2-3%. I could be 96% accurate and still wrong. They might have managed to postpone 200K to Q3. It's a close call.

Your estimate was very close to the final numbers …
Tesla delivered 11,362 vehicles in June, and 205,383 to date in the US... the final interpretation is now up to the IRS.

11,362 Estimated Tesla Deliveries, IRS Language On 200k Unclear Our tentative determination: from InsideEVs
​

Steven and I still aren’t 100% convinced that Tesla would knowingly cross this threshold for a mere 5,000 units sold. So we chose to hold off on publishing the numbers in our sales chart and reached out to Tesla for comment. Despite getting in touch with Tesla more than once, we never received a confirmation. But we also were not given a denial or correction as would usually happen.

If this interpretation is correct, then we believe Tesla passed 200k sales in June. But, if the IRS may not consider the vehicle to be legally ‘sold’ or ‘acquired’ until the title transfer is complete, it could mean Tesla did NOT trigger the rebate phase-out period.* If this interpretation is not correct, keep in mind that historical estimates going back 7+ years will not be 100% accurate. So even though our quarterly numbers seem to have panned out as we expected them to, Tesla may not have crossed 200,000 sales.