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Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Crowded Mind, May 28, 2016.

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  1. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    I probably should have said proper reading of "the P&L statement", rather than "the balance sheet".

    That prediction of YasB's -- no positive net margin for *six quarters* starting in August -- isn't *proven* wrong *yet*. It obviously will be proven wrong. This is predictable because the P&L statement makes it clear that Tesla has large fixed costs, but makes a lot of money on each car. As a result, Tesla shows a positive net margin as soon as it is delivering sufficiently many cars (and not before). The balance sheet shows the capital expenditures which are being used to make more cars. This is business economics 101 and after a while I started to get really snippy with people who didn't understand it.

    I'll make a prediction -- a trivial prediction. Tesla will show a profit (and therefore a positive net margin) for either Q3 2018, Q4, 2018, or Q1 2019. I don't think this is a unique prediction
     
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  2. Off Shore

    Off Shore Off Topic

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    Ford will go bankrupt BEFORE Tesla releases the pickup.
     
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  3. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    And Uncle Sam will save it ;)

    BTW, it is just remarkable luck that saved Ford in 2008. They mortgaged all their assets for a lot of cheap money just before the crash - otherwise they'd be standing in the same line as GM & Chrysler, bowl in hand.
     
  4. Electroman

    Electroman Active Member

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    FSD - they way it was advertised - will never come to fruition for the current set of Model 3 cars that are being sold now.
     
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  5. Buckminster

    Buckminster Member

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    Tesla Semi will feature in all new Mad Max movies and go down in history as the greatest ever product - bigger than the iPhone.
     
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  6. anthonyj

    anthonyj Member

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    This week, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund will announce some sort of deal with Tesla for their project “Vision 2030”. Shorts will be smoked
     
  7. Electroman

    Electroman Active Member

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    This seems like a rerun of a bad story that we have heard before.
     
  8. Buckminster

    Buckminster Member

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    Elon will retweet the Ford commercial soon after Ford and TSLA ER this week. Concerned over their results perhaps - show of support.
     
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  9. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 918 Hybrid

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  10. Oil4AsphaultOnly

    Oil4AsphaultOnly Active Member

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    I predict that 2019 will show signs of a recession and that the democrats will be blamed for it - despite the fact that the new house of reps had nothing to do with the trade war that triggers it.

    This leads to my 2020 prediction that republicans lose control of the senate, while democrats lose some seats in the house of reps. Also, Trump will either not run for reelection or be ousted from the republican party and thus have to run against both the democratic and republican candidates.
     
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  11. wdolson

    wdolson Supporting Member

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    This will probably get moved to Market Politics (from the Prediction Thread in case it does get moved and those in the Market Politics thread are wondering). There is a lively, though mostly civil discussion of all this sort of thing going on over there.
     
  12. Oil4AsphaultOnly

    Oil4AsphaultOnly Active Member

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    I hope not, since the purpose of this thread is to record our predictions so that we can gloat if/when the prediction comes true.
     
  13. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    That 2020 prediction is... pretty out there. I think Trump has taken over the Republican Party, so I think that the disgruntled Republicans will run a candidate against Trump and possibly form a third party, but I don't think they will have any way to kick him out of the party, and I think he will insist on running again.
     
  14. wdolson

    wdolson Supporting Member

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    I agree, there is a growing cadre of former Republicans who are basically organizing to combat Trump if necessary in 2020. Many are experienced hands at campaigning and can probably run a very effective campaign against Trump. They will probably form a new party with the goal of denying Trump a second term at minimum. Most feel that even though they disagree with Democrats on a lot of policy, they know the country would be better served by Democrats than 4 more years of Trump.

    Trump will try to blame the Democrats for everything. He claims that Hillary Clinton conspired with the Russians in 2016 to lose the election for some reason only to make him look bad. Trump's lies still work in the conservative bubble, but they never got much traction outside of it and what little traction they did get is falling apart.

    The only reason the Republicans didn't lose worse last Tuesday was the good economy. Never has a party in power ever lost midterms this badly when employment was this good. But Trump and the Republicans have done everything they can to blow up the economy and those chickens will probably be coming home to roost by 2020. The public tends to blame the president's party for the economy, whether they have anything to do with it or not. They don't for the current economy, we're still coasting on the Obama economy, but they will get the blame for any recession on their watch.

    There is a possibility Trump may not be there in 2020. He is stressing out and eats garbage. A combination that doesn't predict good health for someone in their 70s. There is still the question whether a sitting president can be indicted in office. There is the memo for the 1970s that says no, but since there there was the Clinton decision that said "nobody is above the law" when allowing a civil suit to go forward. If his favorability ratings finally drop into the 20s, enough Republican senators may decide president Pence is preferable and may vote to impeach. That is remote, but could happen.

    As this is the prediction thread, I do predict Trump will be a one or less term president. And when he's gone, the Republicans will rip themselves apart over where the party goes from there.
     
  15. TSLA_Hopeful

    TSLA_Hopeful Member

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    In five years Tesla will buy BMW
     
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  16. Buckminster

    Buckminster Member

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    By Christmas, one of Fact Checker, Neroden or Papafox will write a post so insightful that it goes viral and causes a minor squeeze to $550. I have predicted $700 in April - don't want to get ahead of myself...
    Elon seems so intent on drying out his powder that it is likely to self combust before he intends to release the hounds.
     
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  17. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    Nothing I have written has ever gone viral.
     
  18. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

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    Calling it here -

    Mr Musk's tweet of today regarding a possible collaboration of MBenz and Tesla on an EV Sprinter put the final piece of an idea of mine together. In that I know something that perhaps you don't ;) -

    ==> Before 2020 1Q we are going to see an announcement regarding a WinneMerTesla coming to market.<===

    The back story: Winnebago, along with a large fraction of the motorhome manufacturers, already has in their line-up a number of Sprinter-based RVs, and they presently are bringing out a toe-in-the-water electrified product (you should see it at the next motorhome trade show; as an aside the 2020 (not 2019!) models will start to be unveiled in not many months). But what they're about to show is not a real EV and my understanding it's not even a hybrid ('tho that could be the case); rather, it's a Powerwall-like enhanced interior - ie, a big battery for off-road/non-hookupped RV-ing.

    The company is, however, determined to stay at the forefront of the industry and thus my prediction.

    More:
    The motorhome/RV industry is very amusing to an outsider in the point of product distinctions. At any price point, the difference between Winnebago's offerings and those of Tiffin, Thor, Dynamax, RV Factory, Roadtrek, Leisure Travel, Pleasure Way, Newmar, Jayco, Forest River...are very, very little. The moment something new is presented by one firm is the moment its competitors decide whether or not it's good - and if so, it's on all of them the following season.

    So.....if in fact Winnie is able to snag a Tesla link up, it will be really, really interesting for followers of the industry to learn whether or not that becomes an exclusive or whether everyone else is right behind them.
     
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  19. Mich

    Mich Member

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    Elon Musk will found a non profit organization focusing on drinking water quality. Just to bring down large scale filtration cost by 90%.
     
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  20. Mich

    Mich Member

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    ...and because it is needed to colonize Mars for sure...
     
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