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Prediction Thread - "You Called It"
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
You must have smoked that blunt before making that prediction.
Gonna do a prediction here so I can get some mad forum creds when it comes true.
August 2019, China GF3 start assembly in tent. Lathrop storage filled with excess production of parts during the spring, parts are shipped to China for those part where local production is not yet ready. While assembly happens in China, local production of parts is rapidly added. As less and less parts are needed to be shipped to China, Freemont plant starts to prepare for Model Y production which will happen in Freemont with different general assembly but with many shared parts. Production of Model Y targeted for 2020Q1 but will start 2020Q2.
August 2019, China GF3 start assembly in tent. Lathrop storage filled with excess production of parts during the spring, parts are shipped to China for those part where local production is not yet ready. While assembly happens in China, local production of parts is rapidly added. As less and less parts are needed to be shipped to China, Freemont plant starts to prepare for Model Y production which will happen in Freemont with different general assembly but with many shared parts. Production of Model Y targeted for 2020Q1 but will start 2020Q2.
By 2021, there will be no new sedan designs, as everyone will be selling EV's and they'll be in hatchback/CUV/SUV formats.
When you can drive 15,000 miles on less than $1000 of electricity for a sedan, people won't mind spending $1500 to drive those same 15,000 miles in an SUV/CUV.
When you can drive 15,000 miles on less than $1000 of electricity for a sedan, people won't mind spending $1500 to drive those same 15,000 miles in an SUV/CUV.
Not sure if this is Fully relevant or a little too bullish.
But, I bet that Elon would be worth more that Jeff Bezos in 5 Years from October- 2018
(I had this bet with a friend in real life already going - but i backed out)
But, I bet that Elon would be worth more that Jeff Bezos in 5 Years from October- 2018
(I had this bet with a friend in real life already going - but i backed out)
I was crazy to think Tesla could do 100% unit growth rate again in 2019. So my new prediction is 400K total units in 2019. 500K would be very impressive and very profitable.
I think he already is worth more, but I suppose you mean his portfolio of assets will be worth more
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
My guess is that Tesla will sell a software only concierge product that runs on most devices. it would be born out of what is almost necessary for a great Tesla Network experience and use a neural net to predict/suggest that you will want to visit the cinema before shopping.
Amused that I called the 2k price reduction at tax credit reduction, although I was a bit too specific in stating it would be on paint/awd: Disappointed in Tesla's pricing on paint
Almost 2 yours out from original prediction, and although gas prices have risen somewhat, it's not too far out: Weekly California Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon)
Would really like to see if 2020 pans out and if 2021 would really see a collapse of gasoline prices? Will review again in 2 years.
EPA review prediction - failed. Pruitt's evil hands were more insidious than I expected. Would've never thought he would lay people off as a means to an end.
passenger vehicle sales decline - half right. 2017 sales did drop, but 2018 sales surpassed it.
The predictions that only look at the demand side for gas prices ignore the geo-political side. While demand is a factor, I think geo-politics is a larger factor in the price especially the short term price.
It's a prediction, please don't make it more complicated than it needs to be. The assumption is that I've taken everything into account - I will now keep mum so that I only appear to be a fool.
I'm still waiting to see about this one
I now predict that I won't find out until June 2019.
I'm still waiting to see about this one
I now predict that I won't find out until June 2019.
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
1) Tesla will buy SunRun in fall 2020 and announce plans to massively ramp residential solar+storage business nationwide at set zero-down pricing.
2) A 30 day squeeze to $500+ SP will commence next Thursday the 17th, peaking a week after US/China resolution.
3) Foles will win back to back Super Bowl MVPs.
2) A 30 day squeeze to $500+ SP will commence next Thursday the 17th, peaking a week after US/China resolution.
3) Foles will win back to back Super Bowl MVPs.
anthonyj
Stonks
Tesla acquires The Boring Company. Border Wall is built with Boring bricks. Shorts get deported to hell
Bloomberg predictor indicates the M3 lines are maxed out, and the growth curve flattened at around 4700/wk. I can't see much more output until the China factory goes on line, unless they are secretly building production lines at GF1. My guess they are up against a big ticket blocker at Fremont, like the paint stall or the giant presses, and can't squeeze any more out of it. Those would also explain why it takes so long to get replacement body parts. So that's more like 350,000 total in 2019.
Here's a related prediction - with many M3's shipping overseas now, it will fall in US market share, due to lack of supply, not demand. Ramp down to only 10-12k M3's per month sold in the US by Q2/Q3, from the ~20k/mo they sold in Q4. Hopefully rising again in 2020 when GF3 comes on line.
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