Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

[FlatSix911]

We predicted that the current Supercharging model was not sustainable and scaleable for the long term...

Tesla drastically increases Supercharger prices around the world

Last year, Tesla already increased Supercharger costs in the US. In some places, the increase was as much as 100 percent – though most regions saw their rates increase by 20 to 40 percent. This time around, prices are going up globally and the US is getting another price increase.

For example, the price in New York used to be $0.24 per kWh state-wide after the last increase and now downtown New York City locations went up to $0.32/kWh – a 33% increase this week. Again, the prices used to be set per state or region and now they are being set per Supercharging station. In California, prices went from $0.26 per kWh to ranging from $0.32 to $0.36 per kWh in the charging stations that we verified... It looks like the price went up globally by roughly 33% based on most markets reviewed by Electrek.

 

[MakeUSGreat]

I think the answer, is to eventually have a universal adapter for every vehicle, and a surcharge for other manufacturers that use them, that will help and support the infrastructure

 

[wdolson]

I think the answer, is to eventually have a universal adapter for every vehicle, and a surcharge for other manufacturers that use them, that will help and support the infrastructure

Are you talking about supercharging? Superchargers ask for information about the car when you plug in, including the VIN. The other maker's car would need to be able to handle the handshake protocol. Up to now no other maker's car was able to handle the speeds possible at a supercharger. With newer cars coming along that can handle supercharger power levels, the hacker community will be looking at how to supercharge them. There may be some kind of aftermarket solution Tesla can offer to non-Tesla owners. Buy an adapter from Tesla which does the correct handshaking (and it keyed to one car) and then sign the person up to a Tesla account.

It's possible and it's a way for Tesla to get other maker's cars on the supercharger network and make some money off it. If it becomes a popular thing for non-Tesla EV owners to do, makers might end up having to break down and installing supercharger capability in their cars from the factory.

Supercharging is both much more convenient and much easier to use than any other network.

 

[Magellan55]

One option for Tesla is to spin off the supercharger network. Might help other car companies adopt it, and then it can also grow on its own through the capital markets without ties to Musk. New Tesla's already aren't getting any free charging built in, so this feels like they are preparing for this outcome.

 

[oneday]

I’m going to go way out on a limb here and call it right now.

• 2019 Revenue: $30 billion

 

[anthonyj]

Ultra high performance trim M3 coming soon (0-60 2.5)

Elon is getting married very soon (lol)

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Tomorrow he unveils a Truck. A Tusk? An Elephant (used to pick up?)

 

[emupilot]

I think the announcement is a lease program for the Model 3. That would explain both the lack of a formal party (as for a product launch) and suspension of the ordering on the website until the announcement.

 

[JRP3]

Nope

 

[FlatSix911]

Ok, who called the Standard Range Model 3 announcement in 1Q19?
Deliveries begin in April 2019.

Tesla finally launches base Model 3 for $35,000 with shorter range and new interior

Today, Tesla sent an email to its retail stores the details of the announcement of the new options being available to order in the US today and available as soon as next month.

• Customers are now able to order the $35,000 Model 3 with a standard interior and standard battery pack enabling 130mph top speed and 5.6s 0-60s acceleration.
• Tesla is also making a new “Partial Premium Interior” with better seats than the standard interior available with a different “standard range plus” battery pack for a $2,000 premium
• The Model 3 Standard Range Plus results in 240 miles of range, a top speed of 140mph, 0-60mph acceleration of just 5.3 seconds

 

[neroden]

OK, I admit that my prediction that the base Model 3 would have just slightly longer range than the Bolt, at a lower price, was incorrect...

...but the "Standard Plus" model does have slightly longer range than the Bolt, at the same price. So my reason for making the prediction seems to have been correct.

 

[anthonyj]

Apple and Warren Buffett are building a $10b stake in Tesla. iOS integration with iMessage and apps built into the display. Apple stores will have a section for Tesla with educational information and a floating Model 3 display.

 

[EVNow]

Apple and Warren Buffett are building a $10b stake in Tesla. iOS integration with iMessage and apps built into the display. Apple stores will have a section for Tesla with educational information and a floating Model 3 display.

I don't know if this will ever happen - but if it does - I predict a short squeeze

 

[anthonyj]

Big put buyer on Oracle this past week. Larry stepping down to become CEO of Tesla?

 

[Troy]

Prediction:

• Between 10-20 April 2019, Tesla will announce that all cars coming out of the production line have Autopilot Hardware 3.0

I have added this to the spreadsheet. As a side note, I think production will switch to HW3 a few days before the end of Q1 2019 but Tesla will keep quiet about it until 10-20 April 2019.

 

[schonelucht]

Just to clarify : with HW3.0 you mean the new board built around Tesla's in house neural network chip, right? Is it off topic to ask what the basis is of your guess on that specific time frame?

 

[Troy]

@schonelucht, I mean HW3.0 will have at least the new Autopilot computer described by Elon as 10 to 20 times more powerful than the current AP2.5 computer. People who have FSD will get the computer swap for free. See link 4 here. As for why I picked this exact date range, see my message here.

 

[Troy]

Prediction:

• Around 25 Jun 2019, Model S/X production will switch to the refreshed design
• Around 18 Jul 2019, Tesla will announce that they have made the switch

I have added this to the spreadsheet. I wrote more about this topic here and in response to my tweet here.

 

[AudubonB]

Wow - specific as to dates! You're a brave fellow.

 

[Troy]

My prediction 5 messages above in #515 has now materialized. Yesterday, on 22 April 2019, Elon made the announcement here. I was 2 days off. I had to mark this incorrect in the spreadsheet which hurts because the event was originally scheduled on 19 April.

Prediction:

• Between 10-20 April 2019, Tesla will announce that all cars coming out of the production line have Autopilot Hardware 3.0

I have added this to the spreadsheet. As a side note, I think production will switch to HW3 a few days before the end of Q1 2019 but Tesla will keep quiet about it until 10-20 April 2019.

By the way, when I made this prediction on 14 March 2019, HW3 code leak on Tesla's website hadn't happened yet. That happened on 23 March 2019 and it was reported here. Therefore when I made the prediction, people were still not sure and some people thought HW3 wouldn't happen in 2019.

As for how I made the prediction, it was based on something Elon let slip out during the Ark-Invest podcast when he said "Tesla Autopilot AI computer is about to roll into production" at 17:23 here. I actually started writing about my 10-20 April 2019 estimate a few days after the podcast on 22 Feb here.