Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

[DTB]

What a funny thread.

Disclosure: I own both CSIQ and TSLA.

Here is my prediction : Tesla will partner with Canadian Solar (CSIQ) to build solar panels for the rooftop.

 

[Troy]

Here are a few from me:

• In 2016 Tesla will deliver between 78,000 and 82,000 vehicles.
• The first Model 3's (founder series, Elon's car etc.) will be delivered by 30 Sep 2017.
• The non-performance and larger battery size version of Model 3 (equivalent to S90D) will have at least 270 mi EPA rated range.
• Tesla will deliver its 1,000,000th vehicle by 30 June 2019.

I've added these to the Google Sheet as well.

 

[wdolson]

Here are a few from me:

• In 2016 Tesla will deliver between 78,000 and 82,000 vehicles.
• The first Model 3's (founder series, Elon's car etc.) will be delivered by 30 Sep 2017.
• The non-performance and larger battery size version of Model 3 (equivalent to S90D) will have at least 270 mi EPA rated range.
• Tesla will deliver its 1,000,000th vehicle by 30 June 2019.

I've added these to the Google Sheet as well.

I believe it's been announced that the Model 3 will not have Founders or Signature editions.

 

[Troy]

I believe it's been announced that the Model 3 will not have Founders or Signature editions.

Let me rephrase:

• The first Model 3 deliveries (to Tesla insiders, not to regular customers) will start by 30th Sep 2017.

 

[bh1783]

Korea will be Tesla's 3rd largest market by the end of 2017

 

[wdolson]

Korea will be Tesla's 3rd largest market by the end of 2017

Per capita or in total?

 

[Yggdrasill]

So far I'm one for one. (By the skin of my teeth, though.)

 

[bonaire]

Only predictions I would make would just anger people. But I still stand by my 2016 prediction contest entry for sales.
I also think one board member will turn over on the TSLA BoD, perhaps Kimbal, after the SCTY merger occurs. Perhaps a Rive enters the BoD to replace.

 

[22522]

The M3 out of the gate will be slower than th P100D. The large format battery will have more impedance.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

100k of the first 500k Model 3 reservation holders will opt to "upgrade" and add on a discounted home solar/storage option with their Model 3 delivery.

 

[EinSV]

In my opinion, recent predictions by some that we are reaching peak demand for Model S and/or X are incorrect. Instead, I believe sales of both the S and X will continue to climb rapidly and will easily exceed 200,000 vehicles delivered in 2020. My thinking is:

• Tesla is still relatively unknown in almost all markets outside of California and Norway and the advantages of the Model S/X over competitors are not well understood. Demand will continue to grow in all markets as awareness of Tesla and the advantages of its vehicles grows and comfort level with BEVs increases.
  
  
• The mid-priced premium sedan market (Mercedes E-class, BMW 5 series, Audi A6 etc.) is roughly 4-5 times larger than the next class up (S-class, 7-series, A8). Although the configuration of the SUV market is more complex, IMO it is a reasonable assumption that as price decreases the size of the SUV market increases at roughly the same rate.
  
  
• Tesla does not have a vehicle in-between the S/X and 3/Y that directly targets this mid-level market. But to fill this hole in its offerings Tesla is and likely will continue to decrease the entry level price of the S and X. As GF batteries become available for S and X, Tesla can simultaneously expand range, increase features and reduce price of its entry level S/X. This will further increase the appeal of the entry-level S/X over the competition in this mid-priced premium range, and at the same time appeal to customers who may not otherwise buy a car in this price range but would love to buy a more affordable S/X.
  
  
• Model 3 and Model Y will siphon off some S/X customers, but will also provide free advertising for Tesla that will increase awareness of the brand and attract some customers who prefer the size, styling or features of the S/X to the 3/Y.
  
  
• There may be a modest amount of competition to the S/X by 2020, but competitive offerings will likely have the effect of increasing acceptance of BEVs while at the same time reinforcing the superiority of Tesla's offerings over the competition.

 

[wdolson]

In my opinion, recent predictions by some that we are reaching peak demand for Model S and/or X are incorrect. Instead, I believe sales of both the S and X will continue to climb rapidly and will easily exceed 200,000 vehicles delivered in 2020. My thinking is:

• Tesla is still relatively unknown in almost all markets outside of California and Norway and the advantages of the Model S/X over competitors are not well understood. Demand will continue to grow in all markets as awareness of Tesla and the advantages of its vehicles grows and comfort level with BEVs increases.
  
  
• The mid-priced premium sedan market (Mercedes E-class, BMW 5 series, Audi A6 etc.) is roughly 4-5 times larger than the next class up (S-class, 7-series, A8). Although the configuration of the SUV market is more complex, IMO it is a reasonable assumption that as price decreases the size of the SUV market increases at roughly the same rate.
  
  
• Tesla does not have a vehicle in-between the S/X and 3/Y that directly targets this mid-level market. But to fill this hole in its offerings Tesla is and likely will continue to decrease the entry level price of the S and X. As GF batteries become available for S and X, Tesla can simultaneously expand range, increase features and reduce price of its entry level S/X. This will further increase the appeal of the entry-level S/X over the competition in this mid-priced premium range, and at the same time appeal to customers who may not otherwise buy a car in this price range but would love to buy a more affordable S/X.
  
  
• Model 3 and Model Y will siphon off some S/X customers, but will also provide free advertising for Tesla that will increase awareness of the brand and attract some customers who prefer the size, styling or features of the S/X to the 3/Y.
  
  
• There may be a modest amount of competition to the S/X by 2020, but competitive offerings will likely have the effect of increasing acceptance of BEVs while at the same time reinforcing the superiority of Tesla's offerings over the competition.

The exterior dimensions of the 3 are much closer to the mid-sized than a compact sedan. Elon Musk was predicting the 3 would be about 80% the size of the S, but the prototypes are actually about 90% the size. So Tesla is going to have the mid-sized sedan market covered with the 3. With the larger interior room, the 3 might be classified as a large car in the US market because the standard here is interior volume of the passenger compartment.

Tesla will have a tough time distinguishing the S from the 3, the 3 is only slightly smaller and the only obvious difference is the hatch on the S. It's possible the S will have a much larger battery and that will be a cache of the larger car. Elon has also said the S/X will be the testbed of new tech, but unless the only new tech that is on the horizon in the next year is the new AP and new batteries, both of which will be in the 3.

There is a risk the 3 could collapse S sales as people opt for the car that cost 1/2 the price and is 90% as big. It's questionable what the Y will have and whether it will siphon off X customers, but if it's basically an X without the falcon wing doors, it probably will.

Tesla may be looking at mostly using the S/X platform as the commercial vehicle chassis. Elon has already said the Tesla van that will be used as a small commercial bus will be evolved from the X.

I think Tesla will need to drastically cut the prices of the S/X to keep sales from completely tanking. I've seen a lot of people on the forum used to the luxury of European premium cars complain about the quality of the S/X, especially the S. On creature comforts alone the S really doesn't stack up well to imported luxury sedans. Tesla has succeeded in drawing in a lot of people who would never buy one of those cars, studies have shown over 1/2 of S owners have never bought a car worth more than $60K before. I'm definitely one of them.

I think the creature comforts in the S are on par with high end US cars. If it was priced the same, it could push Cadillac and Lincoln to the wall. It would also draw off Buick buyers and those who used to buy Mercurys. It is on par with those cars, but it costs $20-$40K more. If the base price of the S was around $40K and a fully equipped 90D (or whatever the battery size will be in a year) was around $70K, sales of the S/X would remain strong, possibly stronger than they are now.

Tesla would have to figure out how to reduce costs across the board to afford that move. The average sales price of an S is about $105K and they make about $20K on the car. That means it costs them in labor and materials about $85K. They need to get that down to around $60K for a heavily equipped S and cut their profit margin to be able to sell it for $70K. Higher volume for their entire fleet will bring down the costs of raw materials like sheet aluminum, fasteners, etc. Some of the manufactured parts will at least part of their components with the 3, the battery cells being the most obvious, but there will be other small parts too. Their $ per sq ft of factory space will go down dramatically which will reduce the amount of overhead per car built.

They could do it, but they will likely tick off a lot of current owners and it will hurt the used market for Ss and Xs. Who wants to pay $80K for a 2 year old S when they can get a new one for $70K?

 

[neroden]

On creature comforts alone the S really doesn't stack up well to imported luxury sedans.

Maybe for those who are in warm climates. In cold climates, the instant-on heating is worth more than any crap advertised as "creature comfort" in any ICE car.

(I don't think Tesla markets this feature enough, by the way. It's not even mentioned on the website last I checked. The number of cars this would sell in the Northeast is ridiculous. More mistakes caused by California thinking, dammit.)

Tesla has succeeded in drawing in a lot of people who would never buy one of those cars, studies have shown over 1/2 of S owners have never bought a car worth more than $60K before. I'm definitely one of them.

Yeah, Tesla should want to work the Model S base price back down to $60K somehow. I think it'll be a lot of little improvements. They might be there already if not for the extra costs of all the Autopilot stuff.

 

[Crowded Mind]

The exterior dimensions of the 3 are much closer to the mid-sized than a compact sedan. Elon Musk was predicting the 3 would be about 80% the size of the S, but the prototypes are actually about 90% the size. So Tesla is going to have the mid-sized sedan market covered with the 3. With the larger interior room, the 3 might be classified as a large car in the US market because the standard here is interior volume of the passenger compartment.

Tesla will have a tough time distinguishing the S from the 3, the 3 is only slightly smaller and the only obvious difference is the hatch on the S. It's possible the S will have a much larger battery and that will be a cache of the larger car. Elon has also said the S/X will be the testbed of new tech, but unless the only new tech that is on the horizon in the next year is the new AP and new batteries, both of which will be in the 3.

There is a risk the 3 could collapse S sales as people opt for the car that cost 1/2 the price and is 90% as big. It's questionable what the Y will have and whether it will siphon off X customers, but if it's basically an X without the falcon wing doors, it probably will.

Tesla may be looking at mostly using the S/X platform as the commercial vehicle chassis. Elon has already said the Tesla van that will be used as a small commercial bus will be evolved from the X.

I think Tesla will need to drastically cut the prices of the S/X to keep sales from completely tanking. I've seen a lot of people on the forum used to the luxury of European premium cars complain about the quality of the S/X, especially the S. On creature comforts alone the S really doesn't stack up well to imported luxury sedans. Tesla has succeeded in drawing in a lot of people who would never buy one of those cars, studies have shown over 1/2 of S owners have never bought a car worth more than $60K before. I'm definitely one of them.

I think the creature comforts in the S are on par with high end US cars. If it was priced the same, it could push Cadillac and Lincoln to the wall. It would also draw off Buick buyers and those who used to buy Mercurys. It is on par with those cars, but it costs $20-$40K more. If the base price of the S was around $40K and a fully equipped 90D (or whatever the battery size will be in a year) was around $70K, sales of the S/X would remain strong, possibly stronger than they are now.

Tesla would have to figure out how to reduce costs across the board to afford that move. The average sales price of an S is about $105K and they make about $20K on the car. That means it costs them in labor and materials about $85K. They need to get that down to around $60K for a heavily equipped S and cut their profit margin to be able to sell it for $70K. Higher volume for their entire fleet will bring down the costs of raw materials like sheet aluminum, fasteners, etc. Some of the manufactured parts will at least part of their components with the 3, the battery cells being the most obvious, but there will be other small parts too. Their $ per sq ft of factory space will go down dramatically which will reduce the amount of overhead per car built.

They could do it, but they will likely tick off a lot of current owners and it will hurt the used market for Ss and Xs. Who wants to pay $80K for a 2 year old S when they can get a new one for $70K?

They can do a little of this, and a little of that. Lower price, and improve quality. This has essentially been what they've been doing since the S first rolled off the line.

 

[trils0n]

Tesla will have a tough time distinguishing the S from the 3, the 3 is only slightly smaller and the only obvious difference is the hatch on the S.

Standing next to the 3, the only obvious difference to my eye was that it was considerably smaller. Narrower and shorter. The S quite a large car. The 3 didn't strike me as being large, even if overall dimensions are ~90% of S (93% LxWxH = ~80% volume) Don't think it will be problem to differentiate. Have you seen the 3 in person? That really helps. The hood is also shorter, so the car has different proportions. The shorter hood is usually a styling/design element of cheaper cars, particularly front wheel drive cars. The S has the more traditional "large hood/big engine" styling of higher-end rear wheel drive cars.

 

[purplewalt]

- 100 kWh Model S and Model X listed on Tesla website within three months.
- Factory standard Model S tow hitch available within 12 months.

You WIN at least one pair of socks!!!

 

[EinSV]

The exterior dimensions of the 3 are much closer to the mid-sized than a compact sedan. Elon Musk was predicting the 3 would be about 80% the size of the S, but the prototypes are actually about 90% the size. So Tesla is going to have the mid-sized sedan market covered with the 3. With the larger interior room, the 3 might be classified as a large car in the US market because the standard here is interior volume of the passenger compartment.

Tesla will have a tough time distinguishing the S from the 3, the 3 is only slightly smaller and the only obvious difference is the hatch on the S. It's possible the S will have a much larger battery and that will be a cache of the larger car. Elon has also said the S/X will be the testbed of new tech, but unless the only new tech that is on the horizon in the next year is the new AP and new batteries, both of which will be in the 3.

There is a risk the 3 could collapse S sales as people opt for the car that cost 1/2 the price and is 90% as big. It's questionable what the Y will have and whether it will siphon off X customers, but if it's basically an X without the falcon wing doors, it probably will.

Tesla may be looking at mostly using the S/X platform as the commercial vehicle chassis. Elon has already said the Tesla van that will be used as a small commercial bus will be evolved from the X.

I think Tesla will need to drastically cut the prices of the S/X to keep sales from completely tanking. I've seen a lot of people on the forum used to the luxury of European premium cars complain about the quality of the S/X, especially the S. On creature comforts alone the S really doesn't stack up well to imported luxury sedans. Tesla has succeeded in drawing in a lot of people who would never buy one of those cars, studies have shown over 1/2 of S owners have never bought a car worth more than $60K before. I'm definitely one of them.

I think the creature comforts in the S are on par with high end US cars. If it was priced the same, it could push Cadillac and Lincoln to the wall. It would also draw off Buick buyers and those who used to buy Mercurys. It is on par with those cars, but it costs $20-$40K more. If the base price of the S was around $40K and a fully equipped 90D (or whatever the battery size will be in a year) was around $70K, sales of the S/X would remain strong, possibly stronger than they are now.

Tesla would have to figure out how to reduce costs across the board to afford that move. The average sales price of an S is about $105K and they make about $20K on the car. That means it costs them in labor and materials about $85K. They need to get that down to around $60K for a heavily equipped S and cut their profit margin to be able to sell it for $70K. Higher volume for their entire fleet will bring down the costs of raw materials like sheet aluminum, fasteners, etc. Some of the manufactured parts will at least part of their components with the 3, the battery cells being the most obvious, but there will be other small parts too. Their $ per sq ft of factory space will go down dramatically which will reduce the amount of overhead per car built.

They could do it, but they will likely tick off a lot of current owners and it will hurt the used market for Ss and Xs. Who wants to pay $80K for a 2 year old S when they can get a new one for $70K?

I think you have laid out the case for limited S/X growth very well. But I don't agree that Model 3/Y will cannibalize S/X sales to that extent.

One useful benchmark is that in 2014 (last year my quick search came up with solid data) BMW sold 373,000 5-Series and 49,000 7-Series Sedans and in 2015 they sold just north of 200K X5s and X6s. So over 600K vehicles with a starting price of $50K or higher. And this is just one manufacturer -- the market is much bigger than many people think.

I believe that the $60K starting point @neroden mentions will be achievable by 2020 with no impact on margins (GF batteries alone should accomplish a a good chunk of that). Model S/X design is not static and can be tweaked to further differentiate from Model 3/Y. For example, cheaper batteries could lead to a larger Model X design in a few years that will differentiate it from the Y.

Anyway, reasonable minds can disagree. Which I guess is the whole point of this thread.

 

[1208]

1. What we think is going to be a hud for the 3 is going to be a transparent TV windshield.

2. A new colour/colours will be brought out before the end of 2016 for the S and X.

3. News about doubling the charging speed at superchargers will be brought out. Don't know how.

 

[wdolson]

Standing next to the 3, the only obvious difference to my eye was that it was considerably smaller. Narrower and shorter. The S quite a large car. The 3 didn't strike me as being large, even if overall dimensions are ~90% of S (93% LxWxH = ~80% volume) Don't think it will be problem to differentiate. Have you seen the 3 in person? That really helps. The hood is also shorter, so the car has different proportions. The shorter hood is usually a styling/design element of cheaper cars, particularly front wheel drive cars. The S has the more traditional "large hood/big engine" styling of higher-end rear wheel drive cars.

Dimensions in inches:

Model S
Length 196
Height 57
Width 77.3
Wheelbase 116.5

Model 3 (estimated by Road and Track from when they got access to the car)
Length 184
Height 56.5
Width 74.2
Wheelbase 113

According to my calculations, the differences are:
Length - 6.12%
Height - 0.88%
Width - 4.01%
Wheelbase - 3%

Going with the Length, Height, and Width reductions, the 3 is 92.68% the size of the Model S.

Tesla worked to give the 3 better headroom than the S and they pushed the front seats forward a bit which probably makes the passenger compartment on the 3 bigger than the S.

A lot can be done with illusion to make a car look smaller or larger. Up until recently I was driving a 1992 Buick built on the same chassis as the Chevy Caprice and about the same dimensions as the contemporary Crown Victoria. Definitely big cars, but this car looked even bigger than the Caprice or the Crown Vic because of it's styling.

I think you have laid out the case for limited S/X growth very well. But I don't agree that Model 3/Y will cannibalize S/X sales to that extent.

One useful benchmark is that in 2014 (last year my quick search came up with solid data) BMW sold 373,000 5-Series and 49,000 7-Series Sedans and in 2015 they sold just north of 200K X5s and X6s. So over 600K vehicles with a starting price of $50K or higher. And this is just one manufacturer -- the market is much bigger than many people think.

I believe that the $60K starting point @neroden mentions will be achievable by 2020 with no impact on margins (GF batteries alone should accomplish a a good chunk of that). Model S/X design is not static and can be tweaked to further differentiate from Model 3/Y. For example, cheaper batteries could lead to a larger Model X design in a few years that will differentiate it from the Y.

Anyway, reasonable minds can disagree. Which I guess is the whole point of this thread.

Differentiating the X from the Y will probably be easier because of the falcon wing doors and the panoramic windshield which will probably never appear on a Tesla car again.

If Tesla can improve battery capacities by 20% with the GF and actually reduce the price a bit, the 75KWh battery will become a 90 KWh. With a little weight savings (it will be achieved with fewer cells), that could push the new 90 up over 300 miles range, which is a significant psychological barrier broken. Even if they sell the entry level car with a software limited battery, buyers will have the knowledge they can turn on the larger battery at any time if they need it.

That will probably help the S compete with other $60K ICE cars, but the 3 could still easily cannibalize sales of Ss. I think they will have to price the entry level S very close to the bigger battery Model 3 and have the same range, or close to the same range on both. They will also have to make the 3, even in the higher trim levels, a more basic car than the S stock. Position the 3 to compete with Camrys, Accords, Fusions, and Malibus. Position the S to compete with sedans from Lincoln, Buick, Cadillac, Lexus, Acura, BMW, Audi, and Mercedes.

As it is right now, the S is nice, but in some ways my 1992 Buick had a nicer interior.

 

[FlatSix911]

Tesla will move to a pay-to-play model for Model 3 supercharging ... and possibly for the Model S and X.

Tesla to introduce new ‘Supercharger Credit’ system to reduce entry price of Model S & X

Sources familiar with the program have told Electrek that Tesla is about to introduce a new Supercharger Credit program to unbundle the cost of Supercharger access from the vehicle and consequently, lower the entry price of the Model S and X while ensuring that the value of the Supercharger network is better represented by the pricing model. The update could coincide with the release of OS 8 or 8.1.

We weren’t able to confirm the amount of the price reduction, but considering Tesla still offers the option to enable Supercharging access for $2,500 on the original Model S 40/60, which were not offered with included access to the network, it wouldn’t be surprising if the discount will be of about the same amount. Update: another source with knowledge of the new program now says that the price reduction will actually amount to $2,000.