Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
To stay on topic in this thread (and yet continue the oil conversation): I predict that the oil / gas business is going to go through an increasing cycle of boom/bust periods: right now, oil is cheap and nobody invests in renewed supply. But the oil price is largely political so I guess we will see a fair bit of volatility here. Smart businesses will try to get out of the industry/price dependency and so I predict that an increasing amount of investments will be in renewables to mitigate this risk.

In addition I predict that the divest movement will gain traction in light of the Paris agreements (and the current political climate in the US).
 
wow, some really good predictions here. I'm lily-livered with my 26k (+/- 1k) cars delivered in Q3 '16 prediction. :p

Okay, so even though my prediction didn't pan out for Q3, going to try again for Q4: 25,500 model S+X (13,500 S; 12,000 X)

Also for 2017 (105k - S3X):
Q1 - 24k (lots of national holidays in Q1)
Q2 - 26k (yoy increase from 2016)
Q3 - 25k (25k S+X; token model 3)
Q4 - 30k (20k S+X - some osborne effect from model 3; 10k model 3)

Additional predictions:
* once model 3 production is launched model S + X sales will be osborned (compensated by conquest sales of new large luxury vehicle buyers from bmw, MB, lexus, etc).
* model 3 production line will be fully operational by Dec 2017 at 250k/yr line speed. More tuning done in 2018.

:p
 
Here are the Q4 predictions I hope will win me a Montana Skeptic coffee mug:

Q4 S Sales - 15,900
Q4 X Sales - 10,700
Q4 Total Sales - 26,600

Q4 EPS is complicated by Solar City stub quarter. I'll try:

TA+TE GAAP EPS $.02
SCTY GAAP EPS $.20
SCTY non-GAAP adjustment -$.80

Cap raise of $1.5B in May 17 after Model 3 Reveal Part 3 and Q1 earnings announcement
 
Here is a new one:
  • I predict that when the Model S and X switch from 18650 to 2170 cells, the battery capacity will stay the same at 100 kWh.
I predict that is incorrect! Why would they use cells with about 8% greater capacity due to size (length, for pack capacity diameter is irrelevant) and probably about 8-10% due to cell chemistry and leave the pack capacity unchanged?

You might think that it doesn't matter, that 100 kWh is enough, but from the popularity and profitability of the 100 kWh pack compared to the 90 kWh pack that is clearly not the case.
 
Last edited:
Why would they use cells with about 8% greater capacity ... and leave the pack capacity unchanged?

Because of the following reasons:

1. Elon said they will stop at 100 kWh (source). I'm pretty sure he doesn't mean forever but at least for a while, maybe until the end of 2018.

2. In conference calls, there is too much talk about profit margins. Keeping the pack at 100 kWh would lower costs and increase profit margins.

3. The Model S battery pack has a hump section with two modules stacked on top of each other. Keeping the capacity at 100 kWh would get rid of the hump section. All modules would be at a single level. This reduces production time and costs of the battery pack casing.

4. If they stay at 100 kWh for a while and increase the capacity of Model S/X and 3 all at the same time, the range numbers will be more balanced. The Model S 100D is expected to have 343-350 miles EPA rated range. The Model 3 75D would have 304 mi and Model 3 80D 325 mi EPA rated range. These numbers look balanced. I don't know if the largest battery of Model 3 will be 75 or 80 kWh but in either case, the range will be less than S100D.

Therefore it makes sense to increase all three car models at once to keep the numbers more balanced. You might say, why wouldn't they just release the Model 3 with an 85 kWh battery and increase the Model S to 105/110? I agree that would keep the numbers balanced as well but financially it doesn't make sense to push the Model 3 battery capacity during the first year. First-year profit margins will be low anyway. Pushing the limits of Model 3 battery capacity will lower the profit margins even further.

Here is the ideal scenario I can think of:
  • Model 3 launches with 55 and 75 kWh versions in Q3 2017.
  • Model S/X stays at 100 kWh until late 2018.
  • At the end of 2018, Tesla increases Model 3 battery capacity from 75 to 85 and Model S capacity from 100 to 110 kWh.
 
Last edited:
I predict that is incorrect! Why would they use cells with about 8% greater capacity due to size (length, for pack capacity diameter is irrelevant) and probably about 8-10% due to cell chemistry and leave the pack capacity unchanged?

You might think that it doesn't matter, that 100 kWh is enough, but from the popularity and profitability of the 100 kWh pack compared to the 90 kWh pack that is clearly not the case.
That's a total of 16-20%.

Therefore it makes sense to increase all three car models at once to keep the numbers more balanced. You might say, why wouldn't they just release the Model 3 with an 85 kWh battery and increase the Model S to 105/110? I agree that would keep the numbers balanced as well but financially it doesn't make sense to push the Model 3 battery capacity during the first year. First-year profit margins will be low anyway. Pushing the limits of Model 3 battery capacity will lower the profit margins even further.
Given that Elon is committed to making to making compelling cars I don't think that any of your reasons are convincing, or even relevant.
 
Because of the following reasons:

1. Elon said they will stop at 100 kWh (source). I'm pretty sure he doesn't mean forever but at least for a while, maybe until the end of 2018.

2. In conference calls, there is too much talk about profit margins. Keeping the pack at 100 kWh would lower costs and increase profit margins.

3. The Model S battery pack has a hump section with two modules stacked on top of each other. Keeping the capacity at 100 kWh would get rid of the hump section. All modules would be at a single level. This reduces production time and costs of the battery pack casing.

4. If they stay at 100 kWh for a while and increase the capacity of Model S/X and 3 all at the same time, the range numbers will be more balanced. The Model S 100D is expected to have 343-350 miles EPA rated range. The Model 3 75D would have 304 mi and Model 3 80D 325 mi EPA rated range. These numbers look balanced. I don't know if the largest battery of Model 3 will be 75 or 80 kWh but in either case, the range will be less than S100D.

Therefore it makes sense to increase all three car models at once to keep the numbers more balanced. You might say, why wouldn't they just release the Model 3 with an 85 kWh battery and increase the Model S to 105/110? I agree that would keep the numbers balanced as well but financially it doesn't make sense to push the Model 3 battery capacity during the first year. First-year profit margins will be low anyway. Pushing the limits of Model 3 battery capacity will lower the profit margins even further.

Here is the ideal scenario I can think of:
  • Model 3 launches with 55 and 75 kWh versions in Q3 2017.
  • Model S/X stays at 100 kWh until late 2018.
  • At the end of 2018, Tesla increases Model 3 battery capacity from 75 to 85 and Model S capacity from 100 to 110 kWh.
With TE doubling capacity I'm expecting something like a 125KWh pack by end of 2017 and model 3 starting at 50 and 75. Will be interesting if they can fit a 100 KWh ludicrous battery in a model 3. Can imagine the articles on the 3 starting at 75k, but a high margin 3 will get them positive margins a year early.
 
If somebody doesn't like my predictions, I recommend adding your own. I would love it if more people made predictions that are more accurate than mine. After a while, we can look back and see who was more accurate. I have 18 predictions on the spreadsheet HERE.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Crowded Mind
I predict that with the onset of the 2170 cell format replacing the 18650s, the present use of the wires in wire-welded terminals for each cell serving as fusible links (this is to isolate bad cells from the entire battery pack) will be superseded by a board-traced "smart" resistor incorporated into the full-pack-sized flexible printed circuit shown in Tesla's patent entitled "ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEM WITH HEAT PIPE THERMAL MANAGEMENT". My reasoning is this is an elegant, cost-saving, more efficient, more durable and more reliable way to manage misbehaving cells. There is a discussion of all this here: New Pack Architecture that is Likely Used in P100D and New TE Products
 
  • Like
Reactions: zdriver
If somebody doesn't like my predictions, I recommend adding your own. I would love it if more people made predictions that are more accurate than mine. After a while, we can look back and see who was more accurate. I have 18 predictions on the spreadsheet HERE.

Who called this one ... Tesla introduces $0.40/minute idle fee for Superchargers to incentivise owners to move when charging is over :cool:

That was quick. Last week, CEO Elon Musk warned that Tesla will “take action” against Tesla owners leaving their vehicles at Supercharger stations after charging is over. He said: “Supercharger spots are meant for charging, not parking”. Today the company took action and introduced a new $0.40 per minute idle fee for the entire Supercharger network.

The fee will start as soon as the charging session is over, but it will be waived if the vehicle is moved within 5 minutes – basically giving owners 5 minutes of free parking after charging is over at a Supercharger. In a press release (read below), Tesla made it clear that it doesn’t plan (hope) to make money off the new scheme and that it’s only a way to “increase Supercharger availability”. In other words, it’s a way to make sure the Superchargers are used for what they were meant to be used: charging.

Due to all its vehicles being connected virtually at all time, it’s not difficult for Tesla to keep track of the fees and it plans to charge people during their next Service Center visit. The Tesla mobile app will notify you if you incurred idle fees after your charging sessions at Superchargers.

Earlier this year, Tesla already started implementing a new message text-based alert system to deter owners from leaving their cars at Superchargers after reaching their preset charging requirements. Tesla would send a message text alerting the owner that charging is over and then again every 5 minutes until the vehicle is unplugged. It was apparently the first step leading to the announcement made today.

Here’s Tesla’s press release in full: Improving Supercharger Availability

We designed the Supercharger network to enable a seamless, enjoyable road trip experience. Therefore, we understand that it can be frustrating to arrive at a station only to discover fully charged Teslas occupying all the spots. To create a better experience for all owners, we’re introducing a fleet-wide idle fee that aims to increase Supercharger availability. We envision a future where cars move themselves once fully charged, enhancing network efficiency and the customer experience even further. Until then, we ask that vehicles be moved from the Supercharger once fully charged. One would never leave a car parked at a gas station right at the pump and the same rule applies with Superchargers.

The Tesla app allows owners to remotely monitor their vehicle, alerting them when their charge is nearly complete and again once fully charged. For every additional minute a car remains connected to the Supercharger, it will incur a $0.40 idle fee. If the car is moved within 5 minutes, the fee is waived. To be clear, this change is purely about increasing customer happiness and we hope to never make any money from it. We’re excited to increase availability during long distance travel and think this change will make the Supercharging experience far better for everyone.
 
Last edited:
  • Informative
Reactions: GoTslaGo
Hi @FlatSix911. I'm happy to see idle fees are now implemented. It was clear to me that they would do this. The first time I wrote about idle fees in this thread was 3 months ago here on Sep 4, 2016. When answering your question, I said grandfathered cars will also be subject to idle fees. That part was correct. Then on Nov 15th, 2016, I wrote more details here. I was expecting the announcement before Dec 10th. It happened on Dec 17th. Also, payment is during service visit (source) instead of credit card. So, I've got some minor details wrong.

Tesla, you were 7 days late. Now my prediction doesn't look so impressive. :confused:

Message #88, Nov 15th, 2016.
Here are a few more predictions from me related to the superchargers credits system:
8. Idle fees will apply to grandfathered cars as well. If you leave your car plugged in for more than 10 minutes after supercharging is completed, you will need to pay a fee for that. That means soon (before Dec 10th) Tesla will announce that even grandfathered car owners will need to enter a credit card to their myTesla account.​
 
Last edited:
Hi @FlatSix911. I'm happy to see idle fees are now implemented. It was clear to me that they would do this. The first time I wrote about idle fees in this thread was 3 months ago here on Sep 4, 2016. When answering your question, I said grandfathered cars will also be subject to idle fees. That part was correct. Then on Nov 15th, 2016, I wrote more details here. I was expecting the announcement before Dec 10th. It happened on Dec 17th. Also, payment is during service visit (source) instead of credit card. So, I've got some minor details wrong.

Tesla, you were 7 days late. Now my prediction doesn't look so impressive. :confused: Message #88, Nov 15th, 2016.

Well done ... we will give partial credit for the dates :cool: