Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Having been away from the car when it finished charging it could take more than 5 minutes to get back to the car. I know I'm an anomaly, but I don't always carry my cell phone with me and may not have it to connect to the car with the Tesla app and know when it's done. Though that would only happen on a regional day trip when I needed to charge to get home. On a longer trip I would have my cell phone.

Things will probably change when the Model 3 comes along, but congestion at Northwest superchargers isn't currently an issue. I have driven in California and the traffic on those superchargers is much higher than the NW. I was careful to be back to the car before it was done charging most of the time. The one time in California it was done before I got back to the car, my car was the only one there when I got back and it was only about 10 minutes. In that case I was at a restaurant and waiting for the bill when the car finished charging. I was alone and I may have had some people in the restaurant thinking I was dining and dashing if I had run out after eating to move the car.

For me, a white guy with about 1/2 white hair people don't tend to be terribly suspicious of me, but that is different for some ethnic groups and for younger people. The Model 3 will be affordable to more younger people and it's likely there will be some pretty youthful people traveling alone and some restaurant people might call the cops first and ask questions later. And some people are suspicious of people of certain ethnic groups regardless of their age.

I can see some potential bad press as Tesla owners get the cops called on them because they ran out of a restaurant to move their car to avoid parking charges.
 
Having been away from the car when it finished charging it could take more than 5 minutes to get back to the car. I know I'm an anomaly, but I don't always carry my cell phone with me and may not have it to connect to the car with the Tesla app and know when it's done. Though that would only happen on a regional day trip when I needed to charge to get home. On a longer trip I would have my cell phone.

Things will probably change when the Model 3 comes along, but congestion at Northwest superchargers isn't currently an issue. I have driven in California and the traffic on those superchargers is much higher than the NW. I was careful to be back to the car before it was done charging most of the time. The one time in California it was done before I got back to the car, my car was the only one there when I got back and it was only about 10 minutes. In that case I was at a restaurant and waiting for the bill when the car finished charging. I was alone and I may have had some people in the restaurant thinking I was dining and dashing if I had run out after eating to move the car.

For me, a white guy with about 1/2 white hair people don't tend to be terribly suspicious of me, but that is different for some ethnic groups and for younger people. The Model 3 will be affordable to more younger people and it's likely there will be some pretty youthful people traveling alone and some restaurant people might call the cops first and ask questions later. And some people are suspicious of people of certain ethnic groups regardless of their age.

I can see some potential bad press as Tesla owners get the cops called on them because they ran out of a restaurant to move their car to avoid parking charges.

1. Leave cash
2. Leave your card with the host or waiter
3. Pay the extra $2

I don't see that scenario being an issue.
 
Hi. I think I have identified an over promise under deliver situation before it actually happened. If you want to discuss this topic, a suitable thread would be this one. I predict the following:
  • Enhanced Autopilot description on the design studio says, "automatically change lanes without requiring driver input", but the car won't actually do this unless there is another car behind you in the target lane. For example, if you are behind a slow vehicle in the middle lane, EAP will change lanes by itself if there is another car detected in the left lane a safe distance behind you but it won't if the left lane is clear.
 
Last edited:
  • Love
Reactions: neroden
Tesla 2017 revenue will be at least 100% more than 2016 revenue with Solar City revenues included. In other words, 2017 Tesla revenues will be at least 100% higher than 2016 SCTY + TSLA revenues. Revenue will also be at least 100% greater in 2017 than 2016 w/o solar revenues included for both years (SCTY and Tesla Solar not included).
 
Last edited:
I predict -

The Tesla fleet odometer will reach 8.5 billion miles by 31 Dec. 2017.

For reference, as I type this on 26 Dec 2016, the fleet # is at 3,509,558,598 miles. And counting. For this who don't know it, tracker is here: The Electric Road Trip

On edit Jan. 19: the new link to the fleet data is:Electric Road Trip. 3.6519bn at the moment.
 
Last edited:
I predict - The Tesla fleet odometer will reach 8.5 billion miles by 31 Dec. 2017.
For reference, as I type this on 26 Dec 2016, the fleet # is at 3,509,558,598 miles. And counting. For this who don't know it, tracker is here: The Electric Road Trip

Here is another article on the growing fleet miles ... Tesla’s global fleet reaches 3.5 billion electric miles – added 500 million in less than 3 months
  • Tesla’s fleet reached its first billion in June 2015 or about 3 years after the Model S was on the road for the first time.
  • The second billion miles were reached earlier this year in April 2016 or less than a year after the first billion.
  • As previously mentioned, the company reached 3 billion in October 2016 or 6 months after the last billion.
  • Now the company reached 3.5 billion on Christmas day – less than 3 months after the 3 billion mark as the progression is accelerating thanks to a growing fleet that will soon reach 200,000 vehicles.

tesla-jb-straubel-presentation-oct-2016-16.png
 
Review:
I was WRONG predicting that the name "Solar City" would disappear at year's end.
I was WRONG predicting "Iconceivable" would be used for the upgraded Ludicrous. Tesla's loss! That would have been terrific.
 
Hi. Two months ago, on Nov 10th, I wrote the following in this thread:

  • The Model S 100D will be available on the design studio before 31st Jan 2017
  • The Model S 100D's EPA rated range will be more than 340 miles.
I was right about the first one but wrong about the second one. I knew January was a good month to release the 100D but I was a little optimistic about the EPA rated range. So, 50% success rate. I'm OK with that. I updated the Google Sheet.

As a side note, in the future, there might be an interesting twist to the 100D's 335 miles estimated EPA rated range currently shown in the design studio. When the S90D was released, it had 288 miles EPA rated range (source). A few months later, Tesla updated that to 294 miles EPA (source). The same could happen here. I'm not sure why they did that. One argument could be that they were trying to make the performance version look good.
 
Hi. Two months ago, on Nov 10th, I wrote the following in this thread:


I was right about the first one but wrong about the second one. I knew January was a good month to release the 100D but I was a little optimistic about the EPA rated range. So, 50% success rate. I'm OK with that. I updated the Google Sheet.

As a side note, in the future, there might be an interesting twist to the 100D's 335 miles estimated EPA rated range currently shown in the design studio. When the S90D was released, it had 288 miles EPA rated range (source). A few months later, Tesla updated that to 294 miles EPA (source). The same could happen here. I'm not sure why they did that. One argument could be that they were trying to make the performance version look good.
90D moved from 288 to 294 with the refresh. Better aero, I assume.
 
  • Like
Reactions: dc_h
Here is a new one from me:
  • Driverless auto park will work only on parking spaces that have been identified as a parking space by Tesla drivers in the past. First, the driver has to park the car in that space himself and then press a button on the touchscreen to identify this space as a parking space. Then, in the future, his car or any other AP2.0 Tesla will be able to auto park there driverlessly.
 
  • Like
Reactions: neroden
The base Model 3 (355) will be priced at $35K with a 55kWh battery. Option prices will be scaled compared to Model S/X, just like they are with Mercedes and BMW.
370 - $42K
370D - $46K
385D - $52K
P385DL - $65K
Enhanced AP - $4K
Full Self Driving - $2.5K
+ metallic paint, leather, fancy wheels, etc.
All models include 400kWh/year free supercharging
 
  • Like
Reactions: AnxietyRanger
Review:
I was WRONG predicting that the name "Solar City" would disappear at year's end.
I was WRONG predicting "Iconceivable" would be used for the upgraded Ludicrous. Tesla's loss! That would have been terrific.
Refresh time!
I was still wrong on my timing, but the "Solar City" name is, indeed, to winkle out. As reported over the past day or so, e.g: BREAKING: SolarCity brand to disappear