Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

[Spacemanspliff]

Prediction:

• Around 25 Jun 2019, Model S/X production will switch to the refreshed design
• Around 18 Jul 2019, Tesla will announce that they have made the switch

I have added this to the spreadsheet. I wrote more about this topic here and in response to my tweet here.

That would be a bummer, I don’t see how they would get to the low end of their S&X targets (80k) with a refresh starting in mid July.

 

[wdolson]

That would be a bummer, I don’t see how they would get to the low end of their S&X targets (80k) with a refresh starting in mid July.

At this point I doubt they are aiming at 80K for this year. Though if they do release a refresh around the start of the 3rd quarter they probably could sell 40-50K in the second half of the year, which would meet an annualized rate of 80K.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

At this point I doubt they are aiming at 80K for this year. Though if they do release a refresh around the start of the 3rd quarter they probably could sell 40-50K in the second half of the year, which would meet an annualized rate of 80K.

40k wouldn’t cut it, they would have to sell 28k this quarter to hit 80. It would have to be 50k, which leaves no room for error.

 

[wdolson]

I didn't say 80K this year, I said an annualized rate. If they averaging 1500 or so cars a week in the last 2 quarters of the year, that is an annualized rate of 80K a year, even if they sold 0 in the first half of the year. That doesn't mean they will sell 80K this year, just they will achieve that rate by the end of the year. Not great for the bottom line this year, but a good sign for next year if they are consistently in that rate in the second half of the year.

 

[JRP3]

The new S/X upgrade we were expecting which was just announced should help.

 

[neroden]

Prediction:

• Around 25 Jun 2019, Model S/X production will switch to the refreshed design
• Around 18 Jul 2019, Tesla will announce that they have made the switch

I have added this to the spreadsheet. I wrote more about this topic here and in response to my tweet here.

I guess they did this several months before you expected.

 

[FlatSix911]

The new S/X upgrade we were expecting which was just announced should help.

Details from Electrek... Tesla releases new longer range Model S and Model X with drivetrain, suspension upgrades, & more

Another Demand lever along with those major hardware changes...

Tesla will be offering existing free Ludicrous Mode upgrade (worth $20,000) to any existing Model S and Model X owners willing to upgrade to a new Model S or Model X with all those new changes.

 

[Troy]

I guess they did this several months before you expected.

Today's motor and drivetrain change is not the design refresh. Model S/X design refresh will include Model 3 style center console + horizontal touchscreen + digitally controlled air vents. See the links I gave with the prediction. I still expect the design refresh to happen. I think most people expect it. The difficult part is predicting the timing.

 

[nursebee]

I think April 2019 (perhaps early May) will end up being the near term bottom in price.
The market makers might still be able to shake the tree with fear but it cant go on much longer.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The long awaited squeeze up to $400+ will be caused this fall/winter by legislation removing the cap on the full federal tax credit. It'll be limited to vehicles <$45k.

 

[Magellan55]

My guess is we've just seen the changes that will happen to S/X for the year, and any interior/exterior refresh won't happen until 2020 or 2021.

 

[heltok]

Gonna do a prediction here so I can get some mad forum creds when it comes true.

August 2019, China GF3 start assembly in tent. Lathrop storage filled with excess production of parts during the spring, parts are shipped to China for those part where local production is not yet ready. While assembly happens in China, local production of parts is rapidly added. As less and less parts are needed to be shipped to China, Freemont plant starts to prepare for Model Y production which will happen in Freemont with different general assembly but with many shared parts. Production of Model Y targeted for 2020Q1 but will start 2020Q2.

I guess no tent needed but otherwise everything is coming along perfectly:
Twitter

 

[heltok]

Tesla will release information about Model S/X new battery packs when they unveil the Pickup in November. 120/180 kWh with the latter shipping in Q1, plaid in Q2.

 

[JRP3]

I predict that won't happen No way they can fit 180 kWh in the S/X, 120 kWh might be possible.

 

[dc_h]

I predict that won't happen No way they can fit 180 kWh in the S/X, 120 kWh might be possible.

120 or maybe 150 for Plaid. Any higher and they are really in Roadster territory.

 

[JRP3]

I don't see how they could add 50% more battery to a 100.

 

[wdolson]

120 KWh is about the outside limit barring some huge leap in energy density or taking up more space in the car with the battery.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Like Elon said, I predict the cybrtrk will look like a cross between an APC and this car from Blade Runner, with all the usual Tesla design signatures.

Boxer (armoured fighting vehicle) - Wikipedia

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-medi...gressive,q_80,w_1600/ifjtgub7zw66wq0tk030.png

I think the Blade Runner reference may not only be because of how the truck looks.

My hope is that Tesla is using active aerodynamics to minimize aerodynamic drag. GM has a bunch of patents for it in the 2020 Vette, and I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla took that a step farther.

Active aero patents for Corvette suggest Chevy is getting tricky with downforce

If they included something similar to the SpaceX package for the Roadster (kinda like the 3's vents too) to minimize pressure drag via wake infill, the system should be able to optimize itself based on ambient weather and load.

Having active baffles/louvers near the back of the truck might look a little odd though, which could be where the Blade Runner reference comes from.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The Tesla Model 3 and Y will be the #1 selling car and crossover in America for 2023.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Sadly, I predict no S&P inclusion until Q4 of 2020 at the earliest.

Part of that is based off a prediction of (allowing for a range of +/- 50M each quarter):
($400M+) GAAP loss for Q1 (capitalizing model Y production line)
($800M+) GAAP loss for Q2 (due to fewer cars produced than Q1 due to ~5 weeks Fremont shutdown)
$400M+ GAAP profit for Q3
$1B+ GAAP profit for Q4