Predictions Competition Poll #2: What will be the smallest Model 3 battery size?

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. This poll is part of the Tesla Predictions Competition. Check out the competition rules there if you want.

1. Once you submit your vote, you can't change it.

2. You get 10 points for the correct answer.

3. You get 2 points if your answer is 5 kWh above or below the correct answer.

4. This poll is about the advertised capacity. For example, imagine Tesla releases a trim level called "Model 3 35" which has a 40 kWh battery but it is software limited to 35 kWh. The battery sticker shows 40 kWh. However, the actual capacity is 42.5 kWh and usable capacity is 38.5 kWh. The correct answer in this example would be 35 kWh.

5. If the answer is published by Tesla, leaked by other sources or tweeted by Elon before the poll closes at the set date and time, then the poll will be considered closed instantly and new answers won't count. In other words, if the answer is already known, you can't use that information to answer this poll and even if you do, your answer won't towards your score in the Tesla Predictions Competition.

Thanks

 

[Troy]

6. Tesla might decide to start production with a battery size different than the smallest battery. In that case, we will wait until the smallest battery size is known before scoring this poll.

 

[kbM3]

I'm going out on a limb and guessing 50, 60 & 75 kWh versions.

 

[Krugerrand]

My choice isn't listed. So, none of the above.

 

[transpondster]

my guess would be 6/7/8 modules at 56/65/75 kWh, about 9,5kWh per module.

 

[kbM3]

my guess would be 6/7/8 modules at 56/65/75 kWh, about 9,5kWh per module.

Interesting. It would seem the most efficient way for them to do it. What do you speculate they would do in the seven pack scenario? Will they leave it asymmetrical? Do you know how it's presently done on the models S & X?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

6. Tesla might decide to start production with a battery size different than the smallest battery. In that case, we will wait until the smallest battery size is known before scoring this poll.

Might? Tesla's _expected_ to start with the 75kWh battery.
Then there's also AWD and Performance to be added early next year and middle of next year respectively.
They'll sell the small battery when they have to sell the small battery.

 

[anonim1979]

Where's 75kWh option?
I vote that base TM3 starts at 75kWh. One battery only, no options

 

[ikjadoon]

Close calls between 55kWh and 60kWh. I went unoptimistic: 55kWh. I want to believe 215+ miles is just with 55kWh.

 

[WileyTheMan]

I'm starting to wonder if they are even going to use kWh numbers as marketing on the Model 3s. They may try to simplify it for the mass consumer and give it more conventional badging, like Model 3, Model 3S, Model 3PS, something like that.

Regardless, I'm guessing there will be a 60kWh and a 75kWh. The future may add or upgrade those offerings.

 

[ikjadoon]

I'm starting to wonder if they are even going to use kWh numbers as marketing on the Model 3s. They may try to simplify it for the mass consumer and give it more conventional badging, like Model 3, Model 3S, Model 3PS, something like that.

Regardless, I'm guessing there will be a 60kWh and a 75kWh. The future may add or upgrade those offerings.

This is an interesting point. Model 3 75 doesn't feel right or at least as right like Model S 75 or Model X 75.

3 75 sounds like a looping highway.

 

[kbM3]

Hi, everybody. This poll is part of the Tesla Predictions Competition. Check out the competition rules there if you want.

1. Once you submit your vote, you can't change it.

2. You get 10 points for the correct answer.

3. You get 2 points if your answer is 5 kWh above or below the correct answer.

4. This poll is about the advertised capacity. For example, imagine Tesla releases a trim level called "Model 3 35" which has a 40 kWh battery but it is software limited to 35 kWh. The battery sticker shows 40 kWh. However, the actual capacity is 42.5 kWh and usable capacity is 38.5 kWh. The correct answer in this example would be 35 kWh.

5. If the answer is published by Tesla, leaked by other sources or tweeted by Elon before the poll closes at the set date and time, then the poll will be considered closed instantly and new answers won't count. In other words, if the answer is already known, you can't use that information to answer this poll and even if you do, your answer won't towards your score in the Tesla Predictions Competition.

Thanks

Have you redone your calculations based on the leaked 0.237 wh / mile efficiency?

 

[Troy]

Hi, @kbM3. No. It's the first time I've heard about this number. I've found the thread here. When you say redoing calculations, what exactly do you mean? Who is your question directed to? Were you asking me or people who participated or people who didn't participate yet? What calculation is your question about? Can you explain in longer sentences because I don't understand anything?

 

[zenmaster]

Hi, @kbM3. No. It's the first time I've heard about this number. I've found the thread here. When you say redoing calculations, what exactly do you mean? Who is your question directed to? Were you asking me or people who participated or people who didn't participate yet? What calculation is your question about? Can you explain in longer sentences because I don't understand anything?

I agree, question needs to be more specific. Presumably a battery size could be derived if one assumed other unknown variables.

 

[JeffK]

I'm glad 60 kWh is getting some love.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Its over. 60 is the smallest. What do we win?

Nothing?

What a lame contest.

Tesla accidentally reveals Model 3 efficiency hinting at impressive range

 

[Big-T]

Its over. 60 is the smallest. What do we win?

Nothing?

What a lame contest.

Tesla accidentally reveals Model 3 efficiency hinting at impressive range

The Article is quick to point out that the efficiency rating may not be the same as the EPA efficiency rating. Also no where does the code actually say 60 - So I don't know that you can really call it over just yet.

 

[Garlan Garner]

The Article is quick to point out that the efficiency rating may not be the same as the EPA efficiency rating. Also no where does the code actually say 60 - So I don't know that you can really call it over just yet.

I also saw the numbers on my "my tesla" page this morning.

There were 2 consumption numbers. 1 = .013333 and the other was .016666. The inverse of both numbers is 75 and 60. That's what I thought it meant. I'm not sure how the article made it's reference. I didn't write it.

Of course...its gone now.

 

[kbM3]

Hi, @kbM3. No. It's the first time I've heard about this number. I've found the thread here. When you say redoing calculations, what exactly do you mean? Who is your question directed to? Were you asking me or people who participated or people who didn't participate yet? What calculation is your question about? Can you explain in longer sentences because I don't understand anything?

Sorry about that Troy. I just remembered you had done extensive calculations about battery size where you took into account many factors in your spreadsheet.

I was wondering if the 237 wh/mi. figure for wall to vehicle efficiency is true, how that would affect your calculations?

I do believe since my post, I have read a post of yours where you did not believe the 237 wh/ mi. was possible?

I think if that efficiency does turns out to be correct, then a 50 kWh minimum battery size is possible.

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. This poll closed more than 15 hours ago like it was set to close when the poll was created. The votes are public and you can see who voted for what option. For example, you can click on "70 vote(s)" to see the 70 people who voted for 60 kWh. The names you see are in the order they were submitted. The last name you see is the last person who voted for that option. As the host, I want participants to enjoy the competition. Therefore whatever option you voted for, I wish you good luck. We will find out the correct answer soon.