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Predictions Competition Poll #4: Price difference per kWh between largest and smallest battery

What will be the price difference per kWh between the largest and smallest Model 3 battery?


  • Total voters
    122
  • Poll closed .

Troy

Active Member
Aug 24, 2015
1,957
5,869
Another topic I can think of is available motor power. What if the bigger battery version gets quicker to 60 and/or has a higher top speed. Is that worth more money? And how would you calculate it? You can't order just more performance. IMO that would be one case that will happen a lot more likely than just 4%.

And how likely is it that someone not interested in this game before will vote on how much more extra performance is worth, however you define that term.

Hi, @R.S. Can you explain a little more what you mean here? Maybe use an example. A larger battery adds the following advantages compared to an identical car with the same hardware but a smaller battery:

1. More range
2. Better 0-60 time
3. Higher top speed in most instances unless the improvement falls short of exceeding Tesla's 130, 140 and 155 mph software limit thresholds.
4. Less degradation because of fewer charge cycles for the same mileage
5. Quicker supercharge times in terms of miles added per time (let's say per 10 minutes)

Tesla used to publish maximum motor power numbers and you could see that the cars had identical motors:
http://i.imgur.com/RI8BsRf.jpg
 
Last edited:

SageBrush

REJECT Fascism
May 7, 2015
12,384
15,312
New Mexico
@Troy

I'm enjoying your predictions polls, but two suggestions:

1. Add more choices. Give more room for people to be wrong ;-)
... err, I mean be granular in their estimates

2. Add a poll for Model 3 car weight for a 55 kWh trim. This has been most on my mind lately and I keep bumping up my guess
 

Troy

Active Member
Aug 24, 2015
1,957
5,869
Hi, @SageBrush.

1. Yeah, could be good.
2. I like this idea. How do you think we can find the correct answer? The Model S specs on Tesla's website here (scroll down) doesn't show weight. Do you think we should use curb weight as published by one of the known auto magazines? For example, this page by Car and Driver shows that number. I could spell out all the magazine names that will be accepted to avoid sources that are not credible.
 
Last edited:

SageBrush

REJECT Fascism
May 7, 2015
12,384
15,312
New Mexico
Hi, @SageBrush.

1. Yeah, could be good.
2. I like this idea. How do you think we can find the correct answer? The Model S specs on Tesla's website here (scroll down) doesn't show weight. Do you think we should use curb weight as published by one of the known auto magazines? For example, this page by Car and Driver shows that number? I could all the magazine names that will be accepted to avoid sources that are not credible.
I thought there was a gross weight reporting requirement for the feds.
And on second thought, let's guess the weight of the base model.
 

R.S

Active Member
Mar 8, 2015
1,196
1,004
Munich, Bavaria, Germany
Troy it's already known the cost of the battery/kw is 98.00 with new cells from GF.
From Panasonic it is 120.00/kw.
Ergo-the cost to the public isn't per kw but by kw per battery pack which adds more cost to it.
The cost the public or battery MSRP will be $175-195/kw as Elon stated in the past that they plan on making 50-75% profits off battery packs in the future. I wonder why or how they could sell the 15kw upgrade to S owners at 2000.00? That's only 133.00/kw and still make a profit?
Wow. That's an eye opener. I'll bet because they already considered the S to support model 3 and the overall profits from model 3 (mass produced) they sold them at cost to the public at that time.
Ergo-investors should be thrilled prices have dropped this far.
So in answer to your poll....to the public will be the 2nd one. I will not vote on it because it really doesn't mean anything to me to vote on something that I think is so obviously redundant.
I'm not trolling you. If you tightened up the range of pricing to nothing higher than 225/kw. then I might vote.
It's just too painfully obvious right now.

Ha..haha..hahaha just too painfully obvious right now! Good thing we know now now, that the bigger battery has 40 kWh more.
 

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